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The Beat Goes On - JAN 21 Threat


PhineasC

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I would, and likely will in the future, but it was much worse before. It took a lot to get it to this stage though lol.

Isn't it just a question of even putting it in MSpaint and going to resize and hitting like 75% or even 60% lol. That's how I scaled mine down but I'm getting off topic.

Phin - Probably.

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Agreed, that coupled with potentially factoring in good 850's for ratios Baltimore and n/w/e.

Well I mean its still like .2'' which, with good ratios is around 2-4''.. Remember for every tenth of an inch of rain is one inch of snow without ratios.

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the weather channel has nothing for cent md, tom tasselmeyer from whal has 2-4 iin. Pretty big spread. I will be interested in seeing what really happens.

Jan 20 TomorrowPartly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High near 35F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.Jan 20 Tomorrow nightCloudy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later on. Low near 30F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.Jan 21 FridayWindy with times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s.
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SREFS seem to be coming back more in line with the earlier solutions. Good sign, imo.

really? :unsure:

.25" precip area has really shrunk to BWI north to S PA

even NYC on North gets screwed

I'll take .25", don't get me wrong, its just become an incredible non-event when comparing it to yesterday's runs of NAM (which I know is more a statement on the NAM, but still it has weakened)

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really? :unsure:

.25" precip area has really shrunk to BWI north to S PA

even NYC on North gets screwed

I'll take .25", don't get me wrong, its just become an incredible non-event when comparing it to yesterday's runs of NAM (which I know is more a statement on the NAM, but still it has weakened)

max precip field on this map

sref_x24_042s.gif

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really? :unsure:

.25" precip area has really shrunk to BWI north to S PA

even NYC on North gets screwed

I'll take .25", don't get me wrong, its just become an incredible non-event when comparing it to yesterday's runs of NAM (which I know is more a statement on the NAM, but still it has weakened)

Compare the 24 hr precip on the 21z vs the 15z at 15z friday. That would be the 42 hour frame on the 21z vs the 48 hour on the 15z.

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Compare the 24 hr precip on the 21z vs the 15z at 15z friday. That would be the 42 hour frame on the 21z vs the 48 hour on the 15z.

not meaning to punt, but moving on to the NAM, its dried through 18hrs vs. 18z at 24 hrs

I'm thinking that the Euro is going to be more right than wrong (if for no other reason that it is the one model that gives us almost nothing)

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really? :unsure:

.25" precip area has really shrunk to BWI north to S PA

even NYC on North gets screwed

I'll take .25", don't get me wrong, its just become an incredible non-event when comparing it to yesterday's runs of NAM (which I know is more a statement on the NAM, but still it has weakened)

its not just the NAM, the NAM was the most wound up and 12z yesterday gave NYC to BOS 10-16" of snow and Philly 5-8". But even the GFS at one time had a good stripe of .5+ liquid. Lest we forget the GGEM that 48 hours ago was showing a HECS. Models have seen that this would be another northern branch dominated system. Without the good inflow of moisture from the STJ precip totals have gone down. On top of this the trough has been digging less and less each run and so less amplified northern stream solution to boot. This is also a seasonal trend. At 7 days out models are showing more STJ and more northern branch digging then ends up reality.

That said, I was wondering if 0z guidance would shift south some with the axis of snow, what I am seeing out in the plains seems to indicate the chance this is coming east a bit south of guidance so far. This may be a lesser event then models indicated the other day, but if it shifts south we may still be ok with our 1-3 event.

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NAM is smoking crack, what the heck is it showing. It can screw off, GFS in 90.

you forget, the Euro is showing .03 for BWI

come tomorrow, all the models will converge on its solution

lesson of the year remains to run with the model that screws the MA; that's not whining, that's pure fact

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At least we never had very high expectations here, at least not since the signs started 3 days ago this was another screwjob. But imagine the NYC area, they just spent a week tracking what they thought was another SECS/MECS and is going to be an inch or two of snow.

:lol:

They are still expecting 6+" in SNE :lmao:

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