Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isn't all that bad. qpf thru 42 hrs. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_042s.gif All things considered I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This picture from japan really puts it into perspective.. I can only imagine the type of debacle that much snow would cause here I mean that's houses covered, not cars... I really would like to experience that just once to see what it was like. Holy hell. Is that current? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isn't all that bad. qpf thru 42 hrs. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_042s.gif Its pretty similar to 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Holy hell. Is that current? Right click -> View image info. '06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That's nutz http://a11news.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/in-japan-heavy-snow.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Right click -> View image info. '06 I was going to say. If that was now, i'd be getting my boarding ticket. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isn't all that bad. qpf thru 42 hrs. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_042s.gif Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I never said it was a wild ass guess map..WHy do you always jump on me? On my personal page earlier I put 2-3 was a good guess for Central MD and 1-2 for the south...but latest indications point to the lesser and that cant be ignored...Im not changing my forecast yet but if 00Z runs come in drier then NWS and myself would have to downgrade. My apologies. That wasn't my intent. I was just saying that even though something might be experimental, it would still be based on something legit. Anyway, at least the 18 didn't continue the trend of going backward. That is at least a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Blame it on the Appalachians? Any meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas? A mix of having the Apps and the fact that the influence of the current low bringing that precip will diminish as the coastal low develops and keeps the higher QPF closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas? Blame it on all of the Miller B(oned)'s we've had this year. Our poor pattern will continue as long as they continue to dominate...err I should say as long as the Northern stream continues to dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas? Probably the dryslot that gets us as a result of the coastal transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas? Though hope is fading fast, we're still in this. Though chances of it verifying are in the 10-20% range but all we need is a better phase (earlier nam runs) and a shift of 30-50 miles southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Fixed, oh and ZWYTS is a MAJOR JEALOUS prick. But im sure he is a great friend to you . where is ZWYTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A mix of having the Apps and the fact that the influence of the current low bringing that precip will diminish as the coastal low develops and keeps the higher QPF closer to the coast. Good old DC split, too far east to get snow from the Primary, too far west to get it from the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A mix of having the Apps and the fact that the influence of the current low bringing that precip will diminish as the coastal low develops and keeps the higher QPF closer to the coast. Thanks guys. I know it's a newbie question, but I feel like I see this alot (not just in the winter), and wanted to figure out what it was beyond just the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 where is ZWYTS? On his loser board that no one reads or goes to . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On his loser board that no one reads or goes to . give it a rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS Ensembles pretty good, .25-.3 at KMTN, .25 at BWI, looks like .19 at DCA and .15 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS Ensembles pretty good, .25-.3 at KMTN, .25 at BWI, looks like .19 at DCA and .15 at IAD. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On his loser board that no one reads or goes to . Apparently you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 in go the snow totals for the event in the zones from LWX... WV counties in LWX region 2-4 inches except for Hardy (1-3 inches) Culpepper to Page Counties and SW -- Around an inch DCA south and west to Culpepper/Page counties including PG/AA counties in MD -- 1-3 inches St. Mary's County -- no snow accums Charles/Calvert/Stafford/Spotsy -- up to one inch Montgomery/Frederick/Washington/Howard/Southern Balt -- 2 to 4 inches Northern Balt/Carroll/Harford -- 3 to 5 inches Per 6pm LWX zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 in go the snow totals for the event in the zones from LWX... WV counties in LWX region 2-4 inches except for Hardy (1-3 inches) Culpepper to Page Counties and SW -- Around an inch DCA south and west to Culpepper/Page counties including PG/AA counties in MD -- 1-3 inches St. Mary's County -- no snow accums Charles/Calvert/Stafford/Spotsy -- up to one inch Montgomery/Frederick/Washington/Howard/Southern Balt -- 2 to 4 inches Northern Balt/Carroll/Harford -- 3 to 5 inches Per 6pm LWX zones Are they being really optimistic or do they see something we don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Are they being really optimistic or do they see something we don't? They do seem a little on the optimistic side, don't they? Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Guess they are not buying model runs verbatim. Likely coming up with their own theory on how this will evolve based on some model guidance, but not hugging changing or inconsistent solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Guess they are not buying model runs verbatim. Likely coming up with their own theory on how this will evolve based on some model guidance, but not hugging changing or inconsistent solutions. Agreed, that coupled with potentially factoring in good 850's for ratios Baltimore and n/w/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agreed, that coupled with potentially factoring in good 850's for ratios Baltimore and n/w/e. Make your sig thinner so it takes up less space - (see mine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Are they being really optimistic or do they see something we don't? They do seem a little on the optimistic side, don't they? Hmm. Guess they are not buying model runs verbatim. Likely coming up with their own theory on how this will evolve based on some model guidance, but not hugging changing or inconsistent solutions. Agreed, that coupled with potentially factoring in good 850's for ratios Baltimore and n/w/e. They are just being LWX. The totals will drop rapidly after 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Make your sig thinner so it takes up less space - (see mine) I would, and likely will in the future, but it was much worse before. It took a lot to get it to this stage though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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