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The Beat Goes On - JAN 21 Threat


PhineasC

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GFS isn't all that bad. qpf thru 42 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_042s.gif

Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas?

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I never said it was a wild ass guess map..WHy do you always jump on me? On my personal page earlier I put 2-3 was a good guess for Central MD and 1-2 for the south...but latest indications point to the lesser and that cant be ignored...Im not changing my forecast yet but if 00Z runs come in drier then NWS and myself would have to downgrade.

My apologies. That wasn't my intent. I was just saying that even though something might be experimental, it would still be based on something legit. Anyway, at least the 18 didn't continue the trend of going backward. That is at least a positive.

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Blame it on the Appalachians? Any meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas?

A mix of having the Apps and the fact that the influence of the current low bringing that precip will diminish as the coastal low develops and keeps the higher QPF closer to the coast.

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Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas?

Blame it on all of the Miller B(oned)'s we've had this year. Our poor pattern will continue as long as they continue to dominate...err I should say as long as the Northern stream continues to dominate.

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Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas?

Probably the dryslot that gets us as a result of the coastal transfer.

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Blame it on the Appalachians? Any discernable meteorological reason (i.e., not "seasonal trends" or "because we're doomed" or "MA snowhole wins again" or "it's Ji's fault") why, on this run of the GFS, there is .25+ to the W and E of us in the path of the 850, but not over the B-W corridor/metro areas?

Though hope is fading fast, we're still in this. Though chances of it verifying are in the 10-20% range but all we need is a better phase (earlier nam runs) and a shift of 30-50 miles southwest.

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A mix of having the Apps and the fact that the influence of the current low bringing that precip will diminish as the coastal low develops and keeps the higher QPF closer to the coast.

Thanks guys. I know it's a newbie question, but I feel like I see this alot (not just in the winter), and wanted to figure out what it was beyond just the mountains.

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in go the snow totals for the event in the zones from LWX...

WV counties in LWX region 2-4 inches except for Hardy (1-3 inches)

Culpepper to Page Counties and SW -- Around an inch

DCA south and west to Culpepper/Page counties including PG/AA counties in MD -- 1-3 inches

St. Mary's County -- no snow accums

Charles/Calvert/Stafford/Spotsy -- up to one inch

Montgomery/Frederick/Washington/Howard/Southern Balt -- 2 to 4 inches

Northern Balt/Carroll/Harford -- 3 to 5 inches

Per 6pm LWX zones

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in go the snow totals for the event in the zones from LWX...

WV counties in LWX region 2-4 inches except for Hardy (1-3 inches)

Culpepper to Page Counties and SW -- Around an inch

DCA south and west to Culpepper/Page counties including PG/AA counties in MD -- 1-3 inches

St. Mary's County -- no snow accums

Charles/Calvert/Stafford/Spotsy -- up to one inch

Montgomery/Frederick/Washington/Howard/Southern Balt -- 2 to 4 inches

Northern Balt/Carroll/Harford -- 3 to 5 inches

Per 6pm LWX zones

Are they being really optimistic or do they see something we don't?

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Are they being really optimistic or do they see something we don't?

They do seem a little on the optimistic side, don't they? Hmm.

Guess they are not buying model runs verbatim. Likely coming up with their own theory on how this will evolve based on some model guidance, but not hugging changing or inconsistent solutions.

Agreed, that coupled with potentially factoring in good 850's for ratios Baltimore and n/w/e.

:lol:

They are just being LWX. The totals will drop rapidly after 00Z.

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