usedtobe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 vort is a bit north of 12z at 36... no suicides yet but not the move we want I wish I had said a dusting to an inch. lol. Too early to throw in the towel on the forecast but the trend of the 500 vort is not good an is pretty typical for these type deals. I'll be happy if I get an inch. I noticed when looking at the gfs precip for dc that it has dc as rain not snow because of an isothermal layer that gets a little above freezing. That probably explains lwx's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam crapped the already crapped bed. NAM and SREF are in perfect agreement. ETA and EURO give Balt/DC less than an inch. We now know if we see that Vort to the north of us... WE'RE GETTING LITTLE OR NOTHING. Why don't we listen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I wish I had said a dusting to an inch. lol. Too early to throw in the towel on the forecast but the trend of the 500 vort is not good an is pretty typical for these type deals. I'll be happy if I get an inch. I noticed when looking at the gfs precip for dc that it has dc as rain not snow because of an isothermal layer that gets a little above freezing. That probably explains lwx's forecast. this winter is very frustrating..... oh well what can we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I wish I had said a dusting to an inch. lol. Too early to throw in the towel on the forecast but the trend of the 500 vort is not good an is pretty typical for these type deals. I'll be happy if I get an inch. I noticed when looking at the gfs precip for dc that it has dc as rain not snow because of an isothermal layer that gets a little above freezing. That probably explains lwx's forecast. Ah! Thanks for the insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Make sure not to hit my car when you all jump... I don't want any red on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 this winter is very frustrating..... oh well what can we do. Move to Japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We now know if we see that Vort to the north of us... WE'RE GETTING LITTLE OR NOTHING. Why don't we listen? I think people know, but the models keept showing nice solutions at the surface even when the H5 doesn't agree and we want to believe so bad. Sometimes you can get a decent snow with a not so good H5 track if all other things go perfectly, but its a losing battle usually. MOdels have played this same game with us all year, bad H5 setup, somehow showing good surface solution, then pull the rug out once inside 48 hours and align the surface with the H5. Like I said before, I am done playing this game, until I see a H5 track that is favorable I am not biting on anythying. NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 HPC still gives a slim chance. Looking at the 500 maps, it seems the piece of energy passing just to our north is currently in NW Canada. Do we see a change later when it comes into the US, better or worse, or do we pretty much have it now? After reading PSUHoffmans post and looking, you can see that piece of energy was modeled further south at 0z last night. For some reason, we've seen a pretty dramatic shift with the NAM and the GFS. Just wondering why that would have happened. I guess it's a fairly weak system to begin with, and any slight deviation can have a noticeable result wrt to the ground weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well at least the Outer Banks get snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I cannot believe my NWS forecast is this bullish: Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind at 8 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday: A chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I cannot believe my NWS forecast is this bullish: Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind at 8 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday: A chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Yeah the chances of my forecast verifying is at about 10% right now. LOL...if the current solutions that are dipicted by the models right now hold true and I mix with rain until midnight like NWS is saying than I wouldn't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I cannot believe my NWS forecast is this bullish: Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind at 8 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday: A chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. We'll be lucky to see half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I cannot believe my NWS forecast is this bullish: Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind at 8 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday: A chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Their experimental Map had this so thats why they have this...Itll likely be downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I cannot believe my NWS forecast is this bullish: Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 28. East wind at 8 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday: A chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 19 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Well, these guys do this for a living. Maybe they see something we don't. Just a thought. HPC sees something like that as well. Don't give up. It hasn't happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Their experimental Map had this so thats why they have this...Itll likely be downgraded. It's not a wild ass guess map. It may be experimental, but it's based on something that they put some value or trust in. Look at the WSW's going up in central KY and southern OH. Now compare those with the QPF outputs in those areas. Now compare those with the qpf in your area. Not that different. Besides, forecasting 2 to 4 is hardly forecasting a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Their experimental Map had this so thats why they have this...Itll likely be downgraded. They just put out this forecast less than an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's not a wild ass guess map. It may be experimental, but it's based on something that they put some value or trust in. Look at the WSW's going up in central KY and southern OH. Now compare those with the QPF outputs in those areas. Now compare those with the qpf in your area. Not that different. Besides, forecasting 2 to 4 is hardly forecasting a major storm. I never said it was a wild ass guess map..WHy do you always jump on me? On my personal page earlier I put 2-3 was a good guess for Central MD and 1-2 for the south...but latest indications point to the lesser and that cant be ignored...Im not changing my forecast yet but if 00Z runs come in drier then NWS and myself would have to downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We'll be lucky to see half of that. Agreed, but they know a hell of alot more than me so i hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BTW if you have not noticed in terms of snow forecasts the NWS generally has had to downgrade as we would get closer to the event...Just a thought..The NWS job is to inform the public, so IF there is a CHANCE at higher accums, they will probably lean that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Agreed, but they know a hell of alot more than me so i hope they are right. They know more than us but they also have to worry about how the public will handle their forecasts. They were caught flat footed last time when they called for <0.1" zr, and then upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. I am thinking that they don't want to make the same mistake again so they are over-preparing the public this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that is computer-generated, I believe. the zone forecasts do not mention accumulations yet. True...This too.....good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Move to Japan This picture from japan really puts it into perspective.. I can only imagine the type of debacle that much snow would cause here I mean that's houses covered, not cars... I really would like to experience that just once to see what it was like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that is computer-generated, I believe. the zone forecasts do not mention accumulations yet. FWIW State College's do: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/pa/paz065.txt Mayhap not of interest to most here, but it's a stone's throw from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that is computer-generated, I believe. the zone forecasts do not mention accumulations yet. I was not aware of that, i thought those forecast's were done by a human. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 LWX's forecast seem to be based off of the 6-12z NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 see ya later Fixed, oh and ZWYTS is a MAJOR JEALOUS prick. But im sure he is a great friend to you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I still think we may get a couple of inches out of it in the N/W burbs. It worked out that way last week anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isn't all that bad. qpf thru 42 hrs. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_042s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isn't all that bad. qpf thru 42 hrs. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_042s.gif Better. Keeps the 1-3 alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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