Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe in the recent past it has sucked...and Im not saying Im buying it either..But I thought I heard Wes say its usually #1 or #2 in verifying QPF inside 48 hours....maybe im wrong on that..But yeah Id go with a blend of GFS/NAM myself I would usually give it more credence in the short range, but it's such an outlier on the southern edge at this point, and along with its performance with recent storms I just can't weigh it in that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i just want 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i just want 1" Get surgery . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i just want 1" 18Z runs are crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i just want 1" Wow how we've fallen since last year. Seriously though... I agree. SOMETHING is better than zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The nmm has the right idea on this storm everyone else will come around it all about pattern this goes up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The nmm has the right idea on this storm everyone else will come around it all about pattern this goes up the coast And what does the NMM show? I dont feel like digging it up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I feel slightly insane, continually tracking these storms to the same outcome, week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the hi res look pretty good http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_045l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_045m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the hi res look pretty good http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_045l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_045m.gif This looks like a really quick hitter...<6 hours of snow? Both the NMM and ARW look like similar totals to the NAM with maybe a little more to come after 12z on Friday for folks east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This looks like a really quick hitter...<6 hours of snow? Both the NMM and ARW look like similar totals to the NAM with maybe a little more to come after 12z on Friday for folks east of DC. yeah it's kinda like a cold front on steroids on the hi res at least. last week was pretty short.. about 6 hrs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The hi res models have done great this season, maybe we can actually get 3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm going with 1.75" here in Ellicott City as my official prediction. I think if anything I'm too high. I'd be surprised if the models trended any heavier than they are right now. Sorry for the folks in D.C. south. On top of low QPF's it looks like you have marginal temps to contend with at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ARW total precip hrs 36-48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_048m.gif NMM total precip hrs 36-48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I live in cape st claire about 5-10 miles west of stevensville, md. MT Holly does stevensville's forecast while Sterling does mine. Sure is a difference if you ask me... Stevensville - http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.977560079552&lon=-76.30897521972656&site=phi&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Cape - http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Annapolis&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=39.0221&lon=-76.4501 I guess the sref would support a better chance of mixing for my area but that's about the only model that I see where a lot of mixing (like my NWS forecast) would occur. According to this 2m map of the 6z sref there is a 40-60% chance I'm below 0c at the beginning and even this improves to 60-80% toward the end. Appears that area's to my east have a better chance of being above freezing. I personally think Sterling is wrong. Areas south of DC will mix but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The SREFs just laughed at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The SREFs just laughed at us I find it hard to believe some of these. Some show maybe a snow flake. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 as much as we love to rag on the euro lately it could very well be right. im skeptical anyone sees 4", 3" could even be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 15z sref gets the .1 line right along the MD/Va border up to Martinsburg. Driest run yet. .25 line only found in PA and it's spotty. Hello euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Never fear, LWX's experimental snow forecast is here! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ About 2.5" for DC, just over 3" for Baltimore. 4" in Harford county and along the PA line. Remember to divide by 10 if you want your ACTUAL expected snow total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Never fear, LWX's experimental snow forecast is here! http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ About 2.5" for DC, just over 3" for Baltimore. 4" in Harford county and along the PA line. Remember to divide by 10 if you want your ACTUAL expected snow total that's quite the gradient to the south of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Never fear, LWX's experimental snow forecast is here! http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ About 2.5" for DC, just over 3" for Baltimore. 4" in Harford county and along the PA line. Remember to divide by 10 if you want your ACTUAL expected snow total If the trends are correct, I don't see anybody in MD getting more than maybe 2 inches at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that's quite the gradient to the south of dc No kidding. I'd better not sneeze tomorrow night while facing north, or else I'll be SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I live in cape st claire about 5-10 miles west of stevensville, md. MT Holly does stevensville's forecast while Sterling does mine. Sure is a difference if you ask me... Stevensville - http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text Cape - http://forecast.weat...21&lon=-76.4501 I guess the sref would support a better chance of mixing for my area but that's about the only model that I see where a lot of mixing (like my NWS forecast) would occur. According to this 2m map of the 6z sref there is a 40-60% chance I'm below 0c at the beginning and even this improves to 60-80% toward the end. Appears that area's to my east have a better chance of being above freezing. I personally think Sterling is wrong. Areas south of DC will mix but that's about it. I love it there... don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 wow, I thought this would trend in this direction but now it is going even further then I thought. I really did think 1-3 was locked in but there is a chance its another windex event for the DC area. Again, not surprising really though given the track of the H5 vort. Its been the same track all season and just horrible for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 vort is a bit north of 12z at 36... no suicides yet but not the move we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam crapped the already crapped bed. NAM and SREF are in perfect agreement. ETA and EURO give Balt/DC less than an inch.The trend seems to have a less and less phased system for all areas...NE included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam crapped the already crapped bed. unless someone can get 4"+ from .15 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 1-3 N of EZF sounds like a good bet after this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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