Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ian said he would run around DC naked if DC gets 5" That should get some pessimists to speak up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The way to successfully deal with the DCA Winter of 2010-2011 is to keep your expectations low. 1) Forget that last winter ever happened. 2) Always look forward to a half inch of snow. 3) When you get your half inch of snow, shovel it up and pile it on the north side of your home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ian said he would run around DC naked if DC gets 5" I'll bring the digicam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm going with 1-3. If we get 5 inches I will shoot video, while naked, of Ian running around naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The 162hr gfs 500 vort has a nice look to it. I don't know who's storm it is but it's definitely worth monitoring. That's my optimism post. The pessimism is the upcoming event. I'll be thrilled to get 1" . It looks like the last snowstorm that gave me .60 but with a worse 500h vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Once again the Filthadelphia/NYC weenies are celebrating their victory for Fri's storm. Henry's AccuWx snow map made me throw something at my monitor. Not saying it's his fault just that mother nature is a nasty and evil witch. Note the cute blue bump AROUND us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Henry map is probably a good sign for us if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Once again the Filthadelphia/NYC weenies are celebrating their victory for Fri's storm. Henry's AccuWx snow map made me throw something at my monitor. Not saying it's his fault just that mother nature is a nasty and evil witch. Note the cute blue bump AROUND us. Henry M is a laughing stock. I highly doubt that NYC gets 6"+ from this, based on the most recent models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Anybody got the GEFS total qpf for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And ze first of two maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 One interesting thing about this event, looking at the ensemble members from 18z yesterday, the good ones then have transitioned to the bad ones at 12z, and vice versa. I'll be interested to see how this plays out over the next 24 hours wrt to modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And ze first of two maps: Looks good....Though I may be inclined to up the 1-2 area to 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 One interesting thing about this event, looking at the ensemble members from 18z yesterday, the good ones then have transitioned to the bad ones at 12z, and vice versa. I'll be interested to see how this plays out over the next 24 hours wrt to modeling. i would not focus on any indiv member much from run to run.. the changes are probably meaningless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And ze first of two maps: Good one, Mark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My thinking has not changed, models have just continued to come around to what I figured they would. A northern branch dominated system with the vort going way too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i would not focus on any indiv member much from run to run.. the changes are probably meaningless I'm not focused on them, I just found it interesting that they all (just about) went the other way from what they were. Wonder why the GFS and NAM were trending in our favor and then just like that they switched? New data? Reminds me a little of what the models did to us last Jan 30. Wonder if they might come back to us as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks good....Though I may be inclined to up the 1-2 area to 1-3. I'm trying to use the same contouring (1-2, 2-4, 4-8, etc.) on every map, and I feel that 1-3 is just too broad for such a low accumulation amount (most of the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro gives nada on precip for this in va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro gives nada on precip for this in va Precip total for Balt? probably .1 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Dang up there in the NYC thread they calling .25-.30 from the Euro boring. We've been trying to get that all season here in DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Dang up there in the NYC thread they calling .25-.30 from the Euro boring. We've been trying to get that all season here in DC! To be fair we probably would have said that last year too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Precip total for Balt? probably .1 again try .03 for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 try .03 for BWI Jeez....How can we have such disparity in models at 36-48 hours out..I dont care if professionals want to bash me for it or not, but the models really do stick this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jeez....How can we have such disparity in models at 36-48 hours out..I dont care if professionals want to bash me for it or not, but the models really do stick this year there's always one or two that are way off hopefully, its the Euro so we can get our 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Dang up there in the NYC thread they calling .25-.30 from the Euro boring. We've been trying to get that all season here in DC! I mentioned their sno-ogance earlier. It's what happens when it's your year. We had it last year. We'll be lucky to get .1 from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 try .03 for BWI Good grief you've got to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I have NO idea why people are bothering with Euro QPF in the short range given the recent past... A GFS/NAM weighted blend of sorts does much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jeez....How can we have such disparity in models at 36-48 hours out..I dont care if professionals want to bash me for it or not, but the models really do stick this year is it really that far off? NAM is the only model with over .2 for BWI, avg of the GFS, RGEM, UKMET is about .18 or so... so yea the euro is north of those and low on precip but is it really a stretch its only about 50 miles north of the others? I have my map out there, but if you asked me what im more likely to bust, I would say high and south of the PA border gets nothing. I would be shocked if I busted low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I have NO idea why people are bothering with Euro QPF in the short range given the recent past... A GFS/NAM weighted blend of sorts does much better. Maybe in the recent past it has sucked...and Im not saying Im buying it either..But I thought I heard Wes say its usually #1 or #2 in verifying QPF inside 48 hours....maybe im wrong on that..But yeah Id go with a blend of GFS/NAM myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 is it really that far off? NAM is the only model with over .2 for BWI, avg of the GFS, RGEM, UKMET is about .18 or so... so yea the euro is north of those and low on precip but is it really a stretch its only about 50 miles north of the others? I have my map out there, but if you asked me what im more likely to bust, I would say high and south of the PA border gets nothing. I would be shocked if I busted low. Idk. .03 and .15-25 is a big difference inside 48 hours to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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