mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mitch, what are the gfs totals for DCA and BWI? BWI-.19" DCA-.17" IAD-.13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mitch, what are the gfs totals for DCA and BWI? I'm going to take a WAG and say about .23 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 -5C at BWI 1PM Friday well, with a couple inches of new snow on the ground, that won't be too bad to take I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BWI-.19" DCA-.17" IAD-.13" I'm going to take a WAG and say about .23 for DCA Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nickle and dime baby! Might as well suck it up and enjoy it. 12:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 so basically its a decent clipper that will show the backedge as soon as the storm starts. I am getting really tired of these events. Warm it up or give me a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isnt that crappy, if it can just blossom a little sooner, we're all back into 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 so basically its a decent clipper that will show the backedge as soon as the storm starts. I am getting really tired of these events. Warm it up or give me a Miller A it is trying on one' spirit, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nickle and dime baby! Might as well suck it up and enjoy it. 12:1 ratio? I'd say yes if you're looking at the NAM, and probably closer to 10:1 (or a little less) if you're looking at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isnt that crappy, if it can just blossom a little sooner, we're all back into 2-5 it's pretty crappy imo.. worst run we've seen from the gfs at 500 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UKMET precip at 48 hrs this is only 6 hrs and not 12 before 48 hrs so there's a little more than what it shows http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS isnt that crappy, if it can just blossom a little sooner, we're all back into 2-5 You can say that about every single event this winter. The problem is that it never blossoms sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 so basically its a decent clipper that will show the backedge as soon as the storm starts. I am getting really tired of these events. Warm it up or give me a Miller A there is an old saying in life, sir and that is, ""if you can't get what you want, want what you can get""" capiche(spelled correctly??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12:1 ratio? Eh, maybe...profile looks pretty isothermal below 850mb at about -2C. Gets colder above there, hitting -10C around 725mb. I'd still go 10:1. Looks windy though, so that should make the snow, um...fluff more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 take a look at the shape of the trough on the 3 DAY UKMET http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest we'll never get anywhere with that now look at the CFS from yesterday and the cold it has predicted for FEB looks real close to the UKMET to me http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You can say that about every single event this winter. The problem is that it never blossoms sooner. Your right, its deff been the trend to do exactly what this is doing, but Im just saying, its still not our of the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 108 hrs on the GFS look at what's in the southern plains now look what's up north of North Dakota (hint: think northern energy) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_108l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 108 hrs on the GFS look at what's in the southern plains now look what's up north of North Dakota (hint: think northern energy) http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_108l.gif plz move to the other thread for this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 108 hrs on the GFS look at what's in the southern plains now look what's up north of North Dakota (hint: think northern energy) http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_108l.gif Pssstt...take that to the other thread! We're bringing the hoffman storm in. All of us, together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The trend in the models for all the "storms" this year seems to be this: Days 3-7: Look really good...possible WSW type snows. Certainly high WWA level snows. Day 1-3: Crap the bed. QPF levels cut by factor of 2 or more. Begging for 1" of snow. Last 18-24hrs: Bring things back just a little. Pretty accurate summary for this year. We should just keep posting this over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the GFS is some kind of hit from138-150, and I think 500 looks good up to 162..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like the GFS is some kind of hit from138-150, and I think 500 looks good up to 162..... Psstt....other thread! The hoffman one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Psstt....other thread! The hoffman one! Woops! I forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Eh, a but let down by the GFS but I'm not a complainer so whoopdeedoo.Track is good enough for the potential small upside surprise vs snowhole. Wouldn't mind seeing some enhanced precip on radar as it moves through. Maybe a little extra dynamics gives someone a surprise 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Your right, its deff been the trend to do exactly what this is doing, but Im just saying, its still not our of the realm of possibilities. There is no way we get 5" anywhere near the cities with this setup. Just go into this with a 1-2" mindset and over that will be gravy. Stop going high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 There is no way we get 5" anywhere near the cities with this setup. Just go into this with a 1-2" mindset and over that will be gravy. Stop going high Ian said he would run around DC naked if DC gets 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I had over 2 inches Monday night. I thought Friday's storm would be the good one. Looks like it may not eclipse Monday night unless ratios are really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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