PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS says NAM was onto something for NE Looks like 3-6 until you're up into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It is not very cold outside. I normally laugh at weenies that worry over that, but it doesn't feel much like snow right now. That .20 of liquid won't do much. When it's already warm and the models are both saying it stays warm through 09Z that does suggests not much in the way of accumulations. Plus look at where the gfs tracks the surface low. That's not a typical snow track. Yesterday, it had it in southern VA, now it's got it over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it doesnt really bother me much that they get snow if/when we dont, but i agree that i'd rather them get it than nyc/nj. at this pt i'm probably partly rooting for them to top 100" in the area just since everything seems to want to snow hard on them at least for a bit. Yeah, they are headed that way aren't they? 92/93 and 93/94 were both epic for snow up there. We had to wait until 95/96 down here to get our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 plz take any obs/radar watching etc to this thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9605-jan-20-22-mid-atlantic-obs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 When it's already warm and the models are both saying it stays warm through 09Z that does suggests not much in the way of accumulations. Plus look at where the gfs tracks the surface low. That's not a typical snow track. Yesterday, it had it in southern VA, now it's got it over DC. Judging by the current radar image and upper level set up, the low doesn't look to track as far north as the model has it. Maybe I'm just hallucinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, they are headed that way aren't they? 92/93 and 93/94 were both epic for snow up there. We had to wait until 95/96 down here to get our turn. it happens every few yrs somewhere up there it seems, but i guess it's been a few now. i get some enjoyment out of extremes even when not imby so im not going to be childish like some of them and actively root against snow in their backyards. whether or not they deserve it is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Maybe I'm just hallucinating... that sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, they are headed that way aren't they? 92/93 and 93/94 were both epic for snow up there. We had to wait until 95/96 down here to get our turn. At least in 1993/1994 we had some neat events. The huge ice storms are still etched into my brain, probably even more so than the 1993 Superstorm is. This cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry BS is very old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW, 9z SREFs still have the 0.25" line south of the Mason-Dixon, covering Balt/Harford/Cecil counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 that sounds reasonable Gee, guess Mitchnick is too huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it happens every few yrs somewhere up there it seems, but i guess it's been a few now. i get some enjoyment out of extremes even when not imby so im not going to be childish like some of them and actively root against snow in their backyards. whether or not they deserve it is another question. how can you ask if they deserve it?? That/s like asking if we deserve sunshine. They live in a colder snowy, climate. It isn't a question if they deserve it. If you want what they get, move. Last year was a once in a lifetime deal. Were back to normal, maybe slightly below normal. It is what it is. All the complaining is really worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 that sounds reasonable Gee, guess Mitchnick is too huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 9z SREF is warmer too...even on the RUC looks like the low will track over MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 how can you ask if they deserve it?? That/s like asking if we deserve sunshine. They live in a colder snowy, climate. It isn't a question if they deserve it. If you want what they get, move. Last year was a once in a lifetime deal. Were back to normal, maybe slightly below normal. It is what it is. All the complaining is really worthless. i think that went right over your head, but noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 how can you ask if they deserve it?? That/s like asking if we deserve sunshine. They live in a colder snowy, climate. It isn't a question if they deserve it. If you want what they get, move. Last year was a once in a lifetime deal. Were back to normal, maybe slightly below normal. It is what it is. All the complaining is really worthless. cough Ian use to live in CT cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 how can you ask if they deserve it?? That/s like asking if we deserve sunshine. They live in a colder snowy, climate. It isn't a question if they deserve it. If you want what they get, move. Last year was a once in a lifetime deal. Were back to normal, maybe slightly below normal. It is what it is. All the complaining is really worthless. I should probably let Ian respond...but methinks you've overreacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Judging by the current radar image and upper level set up, the low doesn't look to track as far north as the model has it. Maybe I'm just hallucinating... The track of the 500h vort to our north actually favors a low tracking somewhere near dc. My temperature is already 42 degrees and i'm sure there are plenty of other temps already in the mid to upper 30s and the cold air does get hear until the front comes thru at the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Trouble is the low goes right over you and the surfact emp is above freezing until you get to the highlands north of baltimore. I know Wes, I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I should probably let Ian respond...but methinks you've overreacted. i was talking more about the whiny whiners from sne who were angry we got snow last yr. in my mind they don't deserve snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 9z SREF is warmer too...even on the RUC looks like the low will track over MD. why not just watch radar, instead of model watching ?? This reminds me of the first storm of last year where the radar showed the moisture going almost due east. Incidently, I saw another weather map from some other carrier that showed the low for psuhoffman storm going more east up the coast. Why all the knashing of teeth on a track that isn't in stone.??? Be reasonable. Is this all about model watching?? Just asking. I keep reading and all I see is people watching every model ever run. Is ths meteorology?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 my mom and dad would like to deserve a little less, please. I talked to my mom the other day and asked if it was snowing and she said, with resignation, "when isn't it this winter?". I've been asked to tell some managers at a meeting in a bit about the snow they will be flying home too (in MA, NY and CT) they groaned when they heard it was going to snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 my mom and dad would like to deserve a little less, please. I talked to my mom the other day and asked if it was snowing and she said, with resignation, "when isn't it this winter?". well im sure as a non snow weenie it would get old... heck by the finale of our snow last yr i was ready for it to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 why not just watch radar, instead of model watching ?? This reminds me of the first storm of last year where the radar showed the moisture going almost due east. Incidently, I saw another weather map from some other carrier that showed the low for psuhoffman storm going more east up the coast. Why all the knashing of teeth on a track that isn't in stone.??? Be reasonable. Is this all about model watching?? Just asking. I keep reading and all I see is people watching every model ever run. Is ths meteorology?? But my temperature is 42 what is yours? That's also part of looking at the situation. It's warm, where is the cold air coming from with southwesterly winds out ahead of the precipitation shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 But my temperature is 42 what is yours? That's also part of looking at the situation. It's warm, where is the cold air coming from with southwesterly winds out ahead of the precipitation shield? Selective (weenie) reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 why not just watch radar, instead of model watching ?? This reminds me of the first storm of last year where the radar showed the moisture going almost due east. Incidently, I saw another weather map from some other carrier that showed the low for psuhoffman storm going more east up the coast. Why all the knashing of teeth on a track that isn't in stone.??? Be reasonable. Is this all about model watching?? Just asking. I keep reading and all I see is people watching every model ever run. Is ths meteorology?? well let me make a prediction....Mount Holly which put a WWA in effect for my area this morning, calling for a total of 2-4 inches, was obviously leaning on the GFS. By the afternoon package after looking at the newest data, i doubt any of it will point to advisory criteria snow. I can tell you right now it will be an inch or less. thats why we have model guidance dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 But my temperature is 42 what is yours? That's also part of looking at the situation. It's warm, where is the cold air coming from with southwesterly winds out ahead of the precipitation shield? I really dont know,??You make a good point. I,m not arguing with you, only observing what I read here. Yours is the first non model observation I,ve read in the short time I have been online. I read mitcniks post about radar and looked at that and thought he was right.. I,m just asking question, not challenging anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 well im sure as a non snow weenie it would get old... heck by the finale of our snow last yr i was ready for it to end. Snow is annoying for 99% of the population. Why do you think so many people flee the snowiest locales and move south and west to get away from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Snow is annoying for 99% of the population. Why do you think so many people flee the snowiest locales and move south and west to get away from it? yeah i think a lot of people like it for short periods mostly in hopes they get a day off or something but other than that it's kind of useless. im not a snowcover guy myself.. more in to the before and during. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah i think a lot of people like it for short periods mostly in hopes they get a day off or something but other than that it's kind of useless. im not a snowcover guy myself.. more in to the before and during. Every single time I have been to Boston on business during the winter months, folks have complained to me about the snow and wished they lived further south. We are definitely in a minority and I think the minority shrinks further as you go north. From here to NYC is probably the sweet-spot in terms of getting enough snow to whet your appetite for more but not become a bore. Further north, you get bored by it, further south you don't have much hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes looks like the precip hits the Apps and heads due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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