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The Beat Goes On - JAN 21 Threat


PhineasC

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I personally don't mind the idea of cleaning house, but I'd think a lot of the posts are made in (sarcastic) jest because so many of us can't help but watch in amazement as areas all around us have gotten a good storm at one point or another so far this year.

Am I allowed to say "cool story?"

You can say whatever you want, just as I can too. But here... I'll do it for you:

Cool Story Mapgirl!

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6Z GFS had exactly .20 for BWI

seems like BWI should be somewhere between .15-.25"

hopefully verifying at the high end of the range

Where do you find the QPF amounts for individual areas according to GFS or NAM, etc.?

I was going by this, but if you say .20 for BWI, then coolwx must not be pulling from an official location.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=gfs&time=2011012006&field=prec

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If you look at temps, it has a layer above freezing.

I checked 3-hour soundings this morning Wes and there was not a warm layer

surface got up to +.5C for one 3 hour period, then dropped like a rock

but bufkit did show a mix too, so I don't know what to believe

thicknesses maxed at 538

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DCA sounding at 06Z, warm surface temps!

Date: 18 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 21 JAN 11

Station: KDCA

Latitude: 38.85

Longitude: -77.03

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0 1000 46

SFC 999 55 2.0 -0.4 84 2.4 1.0 160 4 275.3 275.9 274.2 285.4 3.71

2 950 459 1.3 0.9 97 0.4 1.1 187 22 278.5 279.2 276.8 290.3 4.29

3 900 894 0.6 0.4 98 0.2 0.5 213 34 282.2 282.9 278.8 294.4 4.38

4 850 1351 -1.9 -2.1 99 0.2 -2.0 226 39 284.2 284.8 279.1 295.1 3.85

5 800 1831 -4.7 -5.0 97 0.4 -4.8 230 37 286.2 286.7 279.4 295.6 3.28

6 750 2336 -7.3 -9.1 87 1.7 -7.9 225 39 288.6 289.0 279.6 296.1 2.56

7 700 2871 -9.5 -13.3 74 3.8 -10.7 223 50 291.9 292.3 280.4 297.8 1.95

8 650 3442 -11.4 -14.4 78 3.0 -12.3 225 62 296.1 296.5 282.2 302.0 1.93

9 600 4052 -14.0 -15.1 92 1.1 -14.3 228 70 299.9 300.3 283.8 306.1 1.98

10 550 4709 -17.5 -18.5 92 1.0 -17.7 230 77 303.3 303.6 284.8 308.5 1.62

11 500 5415 -22.8 -23.9 91 1.1 -23.1 233 85 305.2 305.4 284.9 308.8 1.10

12 450 6179 -28.1 -29.8 85 1.7 -28.3 234 95 307.9 308.1 285.4 310.4 0.72

13 400 7014 -33.8 -36.1 79 2.4 -34.0 235 108 311.1 311.2 286.2 312.6 0.44

14 350 7938 -40.0 -44.3 64 4.3 -40.3 232 118 314.8 314.8 287.3 315.6 0.21

15 300 8972 -47.5 -52.5 57 5.0 -47.7 233 132 318.3 318.4 288.3 318.7 0.10

16 250 10155 -54.5 -58.8 59 4.4 -54.6 236 136 325.0 325.1 290.3 325.3 0.05

17 200 11579 -54.5 -62.0 39 7.5 -54.6 243 123 346.5 346.5 295.9 346.7 0.05

18 150 13420 -55.2 -68.8 17 13.6 -55.5 248 95 375.0 375.0 301.4 375.1 0.02

19 100 15993 -57.2 -79.4 4 22.2 -57.6 249 63 417.3 417.3 307.4 417.3 0.01

Same deal for BWI

Date: 18 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 21 JAN 11

Station: KBWI

Latitude: 39.18

Longitude: -76.67

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1000 46 1.8 1.0 95 0.8 1.4 136 5 274.9 275.6 274.6 286.1 4.11

1 1000 47 1.0 0.3 95 0.7 0.7 141 5 274.1 274.8 273.8 284.7 3.90

2 950 459 0.3 0.1 99 0.2 0.2 173 23 277.5 278.2 275.9 288.6 4.05

3 900 892 0.0 -0.0 100 0.1 0.0 202 35 281.5 282.3 278.3 293.4 4.24

4 850 1349 -1.9 -2.0 99 0.1 -2.0 218 41 284.1 284.8 279.1 295.1 3.88

5 800 1829 -4.8 -4.9 99 0.1 -4.8 225 40 286.1 286.7 279.4 295.6 3.32

6 750 2333 -7.7 -8.6 93 0.9 -8.0 224 40 288.2 288.7 279.5 296.0 2.65

7 700 2867 -10.2 -13.3 78 3.1 -11.2 220 49 291.2 291.5 280.0 297.0 1.96

8 650 3436 -12.2 -15.2 79 2.9 -13.1 223 61 295.1 295.4 281.6 300.6 1.80

9 600 4045 -14.4 -15.5 91 1.1 -14.7 227 70 299.4 299.8 283.5 305.3 1.90

10 550 4701 -17.6 -18.5 93 0.9 -17.9 229 77 303.2 303.5 284.7 308.3 1.61

11 500 5407 -22.8 -23.7 92 0.9 -22.9 231 83 305.3 305.5 284.9 309.0 1.13

12 450 6171 -28.2 -29.6 88 1.4 -28.5 232 93 307.8 307.9 285.4 310.2 0.73

13 400 7005 -34.1 -36.0 83 1.9 -34.3 235 106 310.7 310.8 286.1 312.3 0.44

14 350 7927 -40.3 -44.2 66 3.9 -40.6 232 117 314.4 314.4 287.1 315.2 0.22

15 300 8961 -47.8 -52.6 58 4.8 -48.0 232 132 317.9 317.9 288.2 318.3 0.10

16 250 10142 -54.7 -58.9 60 4.1 -54.8 235 135 324.7 324.7 290.2 324.9 0.05

17 200 11565 -54.3 -62.0 38 7.7 -54.5 243 120 346.8 346.8 296.0 346.9 0.05

18 150 13408 -54.9 -68.8 16 14.0 -55.2 248 93 375.6 375.6 301.5 375.7 0.02

19 100 15985 -56.9 -79.7 4 22.8 -57.3 248 62 417.7 417.7 307.4 417.8 0.01

TRP 0

WND 0

09Z BWi temps still above freezing at the ground, the same with dc. Snow is not likely to accumulate very quickly with the surface temps above freezing.

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GFS says NAM was onto something for NE

nam outperformed the gfs up there on jan 11. def not as good a situation but it's their yr so it will snow a good bit whenever there is an opportunity.

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yeah tho it has been before and been wrong. id guess they'll get 4-8 or so.

I guess if there's any region to be upset by for getting snow -- which doesn't make much sense anyway-- it would be New York/NJ. I mean, New England is going to get a lot more snow than we do in like 98% of winters. Remember the two recent winters in a row (I think 07-09) where Boston had 25" of snow in December while we had to wait and wait and wait between any threats?

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I guess if there's any region to be upset by for getting snow -- which doesn't make much sense anyway-- it would be New York/NJ. I mean, New England is going to get a lot more snow than we do in like 98% of winters. Remember the two recent winters in a row (I think 07-09) where Boston had 25" of snow in December while we had to wait and wait and wait between any threats?

it doesnt really bother me much that they get snow if/when we dont, but i agree that i'd rather them get it than nyc/nj. at this pt i'm probably partly rooting for them to top 100" in the area just since everything seems to want to snow hard on them at least for a bit.

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