mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 qpf totals thru 36 BWI-.23" DCA-.21" IAD-.19" MTN-.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 qpf totals thru 36 BWI-.23" DCA-.21" IAD-.19" APG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 APG? .28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks ok to me, I'm right on the .25" line. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .28" BOS only gets .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BOS only gets .25" I'm sure they already have snowpack, so this is a nuisance to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolina23 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good run, as i said. Hopefully we gain some ground back towards the past as we head towards game time. 2-4'' final call for Baltimore NE. Factors: ratios will be 11-14:1 and the QPF is about .25 it looks like for me (KMTN) i'll take that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 They reelin us in, or throwin us a life line? Positive moves in some models. Maybe this keeps getting better as we go into tomorrow. It has happened before, though not very often. If I can squeeze 2" from this, I'll be just fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll take 0.21 in a heartbeat. What gives? Last storms it seemed like the GFS was the one to dry us out beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BOS only gets .25" Pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it looks like the GFS and SREF are against the EURO and NAM. Interesting points about the eta looking very similiar to the NAM while the other sref members were more bullish. Going with the NAM and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 After being in the low 50's today and probably above freezing tonight and most of tomorrow, unless the precip is heavy- which doesn't seem likely around here, I really can't see this amounting to really anything, even with a nighttime event. so whether we get .10 or .15 probably won't matter all that much. That's one way to look at it I guess. Me however, I'll take anything I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it looks like the GFS and SREF are against the EURO and NAM. Interesting points about the eta looking very similiar to the NAM while the other sref members were more bullish. Going with the NAM and EURO. Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Up up the coast and away this storm will be not much different than every storm this year.pattern but this time we get a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it looks like the GFS and SREF are against the EURO and NAM. Interesting points about the eta looking very similiar to the NAM while the other sref members were more bullish. Going with the NAM and EURO. careful you could be bettin' your reputation on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it looks like the GFS and SREF are against the EURO and NAM. Interesting points about the eta looking very similiar to the NAM while the other sref members were more bullish. Going with the NAM and EURO. I'm goin with the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm goin with the CRAS I think I'd rather just be cras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well it looks like the GFS and SREF are against the EURO and NAM. Interesting points about the eta looking very similiar to the NAM while the other sref members were more bullish. Going with the NAM and EURO. The NAM has had a lot of problems with continuity lately. I would not buy the 0z solution without pause. The fact that the Euro keeps shutting us out should be a concern, but it has also had problems with qpf at least. The GFS is probably still a front-runner at least in my mind as it's performed relatively well and has been pretty stable. BUT we should probably also keep in mind that for the last event (not the ice one which was very different) most of the models ended up too wet -- Midlo started a thread about it. A blend of the GFS and NAM is probably still a good way to go though maybe throw out this last NAM and see what it does next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Pattern change the storm on the 11th had a really powerful vort, this one does not though it has more overrunning moisture it seems (hopefully). that one cut just south and southeast of BOS while this is forecast to go to their north generally and looks fairly weak still up there. you'd think they would get more than us in the end and probably will but it doesnt quite have the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is that 00Z Foot model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is that 00Z Foot model run? Um don't say that name in this forum, we feel the same way now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 -image- it's a nice idea but all i can think is: why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it's a nice idea but all i can think is: why? were getting some stuff together so we can have a model ran operationally like here at AmericanWx. Its quite a good idea you guys came up with, thanks for offering a high level model for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 were getting some stuff together so we can have a model ran operationally like here at AmericanWx. Its quite a good idea you guys came up with, thanks for offering a high level model for us. I figured you drew it. That's cool.. We need more models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 more models? how about UKMET 36 hrs 6-hr precip ending 36 hrs (there would be some to fall 24-30 hrs not reflected on this map) http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h36&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I figured you drew it. That's cool.. We need more models. You gotta admit, its pretty good huh? Hopefully it'll be more consistent than the darn euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow...... MDZ006-201000- NORTHERN BALTIMORE- 900 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 .REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow...... MDZ006-201000- NORTHERN BALTIMORE- 900 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 .REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. Welcome to me mentioning this and us talking about this... oh around 6-7 PM or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DCA gets 3-5 inches of snow between 11pm tomorrow night and 11am Friday morning. Then strong CAA takes hold, blowing it all over the place with wind gusts to 40 knots and temps struggle to hit the upper 20s. Lock it in and Bank it. Stormtracker gets the only lolli: 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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