PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Time for a new thread. Peace be with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thx Phin. Hopefully, the smart folks here will stick to providing an analysis of what may happen based on science and not wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Is this just going to be for Friday and keep next week's shenanigans in the PSUHoffman storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:13 PM, PhineasC said: Time for a new thread. Peace be with you all. In the other thread, you said Quote This all seems like it will be quite similar to the Jan 11/12 event, except CT won't get 30 inches. Should be similar enough down here. ] Probably. Another similarity to the Jan 11/12 is you have people bitching before hand about their "pathetic 2-3" and how they "don't care and want a real storm." Then, when the radar returns are over their house, we'll get the "wow!! great band!!! :thumbsup: I guess I was wrong!" despite the fact that the forecast would still be on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:17 PM, WxUSAF said: Is this just going to be for Friday and keep next week's shenanigans in the PSUHoffman storm thread? Yes, I have made my decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm hoping for 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:21 PM, Ian said: I'm hoping for 1" You are secretly hoping for 3", but you are to embarassed to admit it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:23 PM, ravensrule said: You are secretly hoping for 3", but you are to embarassed to admit it . i would hope for 3" but i doubt i get 3". i'd take it of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:21 PM, Ian said: I'm hoping for 1" Science? ... or wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:26 PM, Ian said: i would hope for 3" but i doubt i get 3". i'd take it of course. I doubt it also i am thinking about 1-1.5" for DC and maybe 2-2.5" for me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:27 PM, J.Mike said: Science? ... or wishcasting? science of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I was saying 3-5" yesterday, but certainly the trend in the models is to reduce QPF as the vort max moves inexorably northward in the progs. Still, I think 2-4" is good right now, with the gradient SW to NE (lowest amounts in the western DC burbs, highest up in Harford and Cecil counties AGAIN). If I was making a public forecast for the area I would probably say 2-4" if I was in Baltimore and 1-3" in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:30 PM, WxUSAF said: I was saying 3-5" yesterday, but certainly the trend in the models is to reduce QPF as the vort max moves inexorably northward in the progs. Still, I think 2-4" is good right now, with the gradient SW to NE (lowest amounts in the western DC burbs, highest up in Harford and Cecil counties AGAIN). If I was making a public forecast for the area I would probably say 2-4" if I was in Baltimore and 1-3" in DC. probably meaningless but the NAM gives the west burbs more qpf than DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GFS will answer all of your questions. Please have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:33 PM, PhineasC said: The GFS will answer all of your questions. Please have patience. I am trying to extrapolate the initialization of the 12Z GFS to see what we are going to get here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:32 PM, Ji said: probably meaningless but the NAM gives the west burbs more qpf than DCA How far west? Or are you just looking at the MOS QPF numbers? On the maps, it all looks about the same until you get on the front slope of the Apps in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:33 PM, PhineasC said: The GFS will answer all of your questions. Scary to say that with a straight face, but it's probably true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:30 PM, WxUSAF said: I was saying 3-5" yesterday, but certainly the trend in the models is to reduce QPF as the vort max moves inexorably northward in the progs. Still, I think 2-4" is good right now, with the gradient SW to NE (lowest amounts in the western DC burbs, highest up in Harford and Cecil counties AGAIN). If I was making a public forecast for the area I would probably say 2-4" if I was in Baltimore and 1-3" in DC. I like this line of thinking. 1 to 3 is a good bet around here....2 to 4 for Phin and co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How much is that on the RGEM Mitch. I don't feel like deciphering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:40 PM, stormtracker said: How much is that on the RGEM Mitch. I don't feel like deciphering from DCA N&E in the 5mm+ shading , which is around .20" there "May" be another mm or two to fall after 12Z Fri per RGEM, but that's stretching it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i was thinking 1-3 S/2-4 NE prior but that's going to be tough to come by i think. the vort max is less intense than last week and the models are already doing their shift the qpf northeast thing. we have enough time probably for the euro to be right still. these storms kinda suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:42 PM, Ian said: i was thinking 1-3 S/2-4 NE prior but that's going to be tough to come by i think. the vort max is less intense than last week and the models are already doing their shift the qpf northeast thing. we have enough time probably for the euro to be right still. these storms kinda suck. With such small amounts it is so hard to call it a storm. A little disturbance maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks to me like a good call would be 1-3 for NOVA-DC-Annapolis and 2-4 for the northern counties of MD including Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 As expected, GFS looks pretty lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The trend in the models for all the "storms" this year seems to be this: Days 3-7: Look really good...possible WSW type snows. Certainly high WWA level snows. Day 1-3: Crap the bed. QPF levels cut by factor of 2 or more. Begging for 1" of snow. Last 18-24hrs: Bring things back just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mitch, what are the gfs totals for DCA and BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:52 PM, WxUSAF said: The trend in the models for all the "storms" this year seems to be this: Days 3-7: Look really good...possible WSW type snows. Certainly high WWA level snows. Day 1-3: Crap the bed. QPF levels cut by factor of 2 or more. Begging for 1" of snow. Last 18-24hrs: Bring things back just a little. Interesting. Which means the PSUHoffman storm will shortly be entering the Day 1-3 Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:51 PM, PhineasC said: As expected, GFS looks pretty lousy. Looks about as expected...still 1 to 3 across the area. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.