WSNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6Z GFS is odd, takes the second short wave and buries in in Mexico- hugs shift from the previous. Probably bogus. Turns it into a monster storm for late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really pretty amazing how the models are coming to the same general idea, despite handling some of the features quite differently. Like was mentioned, the 6z GFS was way different with the 500mb energy. Lots and lots yet to be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Latest from RAH LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SUN THROUGH WED: THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE OF A WINTER STORM FORCENTRAL NC LATE MON-TUE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELOAD ACROSS THENORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION SUNDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN ANDMOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...OWING TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFTBETWEEN PHASED SOUTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL AND SOUTHERN STREAM POLARJETS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND A NORTHWESTERLY NORTHERN STREAM PJFROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE NW ATLANTIC. WHILE TYPICAL MODELDIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF S/WENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTANT LOCATION AND TRACK OFSURFACE REFLECTIONS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THELIKELIHOOD OF A MILLER A SURFACE LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/WTROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GOM AND THEN UP THE COASTAL FRONTALONG THE EAST COAST. SUCH A PATTERN SUGGESTS A CLASSICAL NARROWTRANSITION ZONE P-TYPE DISTRIBUTION...WHICH PARTIAL THICKNESSES ANDFORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MILLER A TRACK ALONGTHE COAST AND PRESENCE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH (INITIALLY CLASSICALDIABATICALLY-ENHANCED THEN HYBRID CAD)...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FORMAINLY SNOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH ATRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT ANDNORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. COLD AND DRYBEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE NIGHT-WED. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Latest from GSP. Pretty much sums up last few pages here. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CENTERS AROUND THEPOTENTIAL WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ANDTUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT THE GFS...ECMWF...ANDGEM ALL FEATURE A SIMILARLY EVOLVING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULFCOAST AND DAMMING HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PROBLEM IS THATSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...TOTAL PRECIP...AND THERMALSTRUCTURE EXIST. THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND THE FASTEST...BRINGINGTHE PRECIP INTO THE FA AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ALSOTHE QUICKEST TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAYNORTHEASTWARD STARTING EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF ISSLOWER THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND KEEPS MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREAUNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALSO WEAKER WITHTHE DAMMING HIGH...NOW FEATURING A 1036MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEWENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS DRIER AND KEEPS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. FINALLY...THE GEM IS THE WETTESTOVERALL AND ITS TIMING IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN TO THE GFS. THEGEM FEATURES A 1040MB DAMMING HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRECIP THATCONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL 3 FEATURE PTYPE ISSUES WITHTHE IMPENDING PRECIP EVENT...PRIMARILY STARTING OFF AS SNOW ANDTRANSITIONING TO SOME MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS MAINLYOUTSIDE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE TRANSITION OCCURS IN WAAOVER THE COLD DOME...AND A DRYING OF THE COLUMN THAT RESULTS IN ALOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE FAVORED CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYER. THEFORECAST CONTINUES TO PRIMARILY FOLLOW THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THEECMWF AT THIS POINT AND MENTIONS SNOW CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAINON TUESDAY. AS IT STANDS...CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL EVENT ISRELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. WE STILLNEED TO SEE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ONMORE SIMILAR TIMING BEFORE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO INCREASE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 About the only thing to take away from last night's model runs is that a slp will cross the southeast sometime around Monday. Other than that, I don't think the models have the track correct. I would not want to be in the bullseye at the moment. It will surely change. My guess would be a slp tracking from Mobile/FL Panhandle to just inside of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why don't we start posting NWS forecast and all local forecast in the banner thread? It takes up so much space and we all can get the forecast if we want it. It's not like it cost for the information like some of the models do. No need to post it. Some take up almost a whole page. Just an idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 About the only thing to take away from last night's model runs is that a slp will cross the southeast sometime around Monday. Other than that, I don't think the models have the track correct. I would not want to be in the bullseye at the moment. It will surely change. My guess would be a slp tracking from Mobile/FL Panhandle to just inside of Hatteras. I agree, An inland runner seems like the track to fit the nao rising. And JB agrees! LOL.. March 93 From JB.. And I like the idea next weeks storm, in spite of the GFS piddling around, is a big one with inland snows and a change to rain along the coast. I will show how this pattern is similar in the means and temp forecast to what we saw in march of 1993, where we did have a 10 day period of positive ao and nao and the monster storm and cold in the east. I had to dig but I found and example of this pattern. ciao for now *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 +1 Why don't we start posting NWS forecast and all local forecast in the banner thread? It takes up so much space and we all can get the forecast if we want it. It's not like it cost for the information like some of the models do. No need to post it. Some take up almost a whole page. Just an idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why don't we start posting NWS forecast and all local forecast in the banner thread? It takes up so much space and we all can get the forecast if we want it. It's not like it cost for the information like some of the models do. No need to post it. Some take up almost a whole page. Just an idea I am with you Powerstroke, or at least only post the link with a brief description ie.. Latest from FFC or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why don't we start posting NWS forecast and all local forecast in the banner thread? It takes up so much space and we all can get the forecast if we want it. It's not like it cost for the information like some of the models do. No need to post it. Some take up almost a whole page. Just an idea If you print the entire AFD, yeah it's too much. But copying pertinent portions doesn't seem like a big deal. The posts above were short and sweet and just dealt with the upcoming system. It doesn't really bother me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Trends that I noticed from yesterday: 1) Lighter precip amounts (EURO and GFS) which can't be trusted at this point. 2) Colder air which looks to stay in place a little longer with the Arctic high not as transient. 3) System moving in a little quicker. (GFS and Euro Ensembles) 4) The last two points have been indicating more snow for central NC and less ICE. Let's see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why don't we start posting NWS forecast and all local forecast in the banner thread? It takes up so much space and we all can get the forecast if we want it. It's not like it cost for the information like some of the models do. No need to post it. Some take up almost a whole page. Just an idea agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Plus... if you bookmark the link in my sig, you'll have every NWS office in the southeast on one page. All AFD's, all HWO's, both the standard NWS radar loop if available, and Google map radar for any area in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you print the entire AFD, yeah it's too much. But copying pertinent portions doesn't seem like a big deal. The posts above were short and sweet and just dealt with the upcoming system. It doesn't really bother me. Hey guys I am all about any information on wintry weather but sites like the NWS we all look at anyway. I just don't think we need to type the articles on here. But that's just my opinion that is up to all you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I am surprised RAH sounds as confident as they do this far out. That means it probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Too quiet in here. That can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Plus... if you bookmark the link in my sig, you'll have every NWS office in the southeast on one page. All AFD's, all HWO's, both the standard NWS radar loop if available, and Google map radar for any area in the southeast. [/q On a different note where can I get a list of the letters for the airports? ie; RDU and such. Thanks in advance. My weather station is doing great by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you want to have a good idea of what the moels are looking like for the Mon./Tue. event and what general potential is there, check out Matthew's video this morning. It is excellent!! He also gives a look at the general pattern for the next couple weeks. Great job Matthew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol. People have jobs, Plus with model are starting to come into some sort of agreement. Talk will happen... Too quiet in here. That can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol. People have jobs, Plus with model are starting to come into some sort of agreement. Talk will happen... Oh, some of the people on here work too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Trends that I noticed from yesterday: 1) Lighter precip amounts (EURO and GFS) which can't be trusted at this point. 2) Colder air which looks to stay in place a little longer with the Arctic high not as transient. 3) System moving in a little quicker. (GFS and Euro Ensembles) 4) The last two points have been indicating more snow for central NC and less ICE. Let's see what today brings. And RAH is going with a Miller A. Hope they are right, but this looks more like a mixed bag to me with warm air pouring in aloft - more in line with GSP disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Matts Morning blog is great as usual. Good job Mr East !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh, some of the people on here work too ? Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Plus... if you bookmark the link in my sig, you'll have every NWS office in the southeast on one page. All AFD's, all HWO's, both the standard NWS radar loop if available, and Google map radar for any area in the southeast. On a different note where can I get a list of the letters for the airports? ie; RDU and such. Thanks in advance. My weather station is doing great by the way. See attached. metars.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks for the kind words! If you want to have a good idea of what the moels are looking like for the Mon./Tue. event and what general potential is there, check out Matthew's video this morning. It is excellent!! He also gives a look at the general pattern for the next couple weeks. Great job Matthew! Matts Morning blog is great as usual. Good job Mr East !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And RAH is going with a Miller A. Hope they are right, but this looks more like a mixed bag to me with warm air pouring in aloft - more in line with GSP disco. I believe every model has a miller A scenario in that the system moves across the gulf. What's left to be determine is the track it takes on the East Coast. Will it be a coastal hugger or a little more inland? I really believe that suppression or out to sea is not an option, but anywhere between a coastal hugger to an Apps runner is still on the table. Obviously that would be the difference between snow, ice, or most likely, a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree, An inland runner seems like the track to fit the nao rising. And JB agrees! LOL.. March 93 From JB.. And I like the idea next weeks storm, in spite of the GFS piddling around, is a big one with inland snows and a change to rain along the coast. I will show how this pattern is similar in the means and temp forecast to what we saw in march of 1993, where we did have a 10 day period of positive ao and nao and the monster storm and cold in the east. I had to dig but I found and example of this pattern. ciao for now *** What a shock, he goes for the most extreme solution possible and makes comparisons to march 93. Ugh. Hey guys I am all about any information on wintry weather but sites like the NWS we all look at anyway. I just don't think we need to type the articles on here. But that's just my opinion that is up to all you guys. It's not a bad idea. Their are a few small issues I have though is there might be some noobs..i mean the greenest of rookies, who don't know how to find the nws discussions. Normally, one might say who cares but one has to consider making the board as valuable as possible to everyone, including them. Plus sometimes it saves a little time because the first thing I do is read this board, not the discussions or forecasts so it keeps from from having to. Lastly, it doesn't take up too much time or space so it's hard to argue it's a big enough deal to warrant telling people not to do it. That said, your point is a valid one and it's something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I believe every model has a miller A scenario in that the system moves across the gulf. What's left to be determine is the track it takes on the East Coast. Will it be a coastal hugger or a little more inland? I really believe that suppression or out to sea is not an option, but anywhere between a coastal hugger to an Apps runner is still on the table. Obviously that would be the difference between snow, ice, or most likely, a mixed bag. Or a mid-west storm...The 12z NAM is ugly at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM is not pretty at 84, but it is the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I made a suggestion to have a subforum for weather resources, a place where we could have links to models, afd's, radar, etc, etc. One place for resources that everyone could share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.