BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS sure is stingy with the QPF only spits out .19 for me all snow, But I know qpf will change just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lots of precip over the southeast @ 120 and just starting to get into NC. If the precip heads north, look out because the hp in in a great spot and there's lots of precip. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 00z Canadian shows a 1039 HP in the NE @ 120HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 00z Canadian shows a 1039 HP in the NE @ 120HR. Moves the low from northern gulf (MS/AL border) to just off the VA/NC coast. Ideal track for much of central/western NC. HP weakens to 1033 as it begins to move offshore as the storm leaves. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Moves the low from northern gulf (MS/AL border) to just off the VA/NC coast. Ideal track for much of central/western NC. HP weakens to 1033 as it begins to move offshore as the storm leaves. TW Yep looks like a perfect track Hope euro stays in the ball park ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GGEm is pretty copious on the precip overall, more than I'd think with its 5H. Also has the strong confluence through the storm tilmaybe the very last. The overall look of the 5H setup is definitely a winter storm of some type across the Midsouth and Southeast Mon/Tues, but a lot of details only to be resolved later will define if this is a major or minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks pretty good ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 There's still a good bit of warming aloft on the Canadian. Looks to me like this would be snow to ice in the CLT area. Nothing has changed in my mind with this storm in that our best snow chances hinge on the initial wave staying intact as long as possible and getting the associated vort max to track as far SE as possible, preferably into Bama....that would help with both QPF and temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 One good thing about the GGEM is it's quicker with southern energy and it's east of 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 One good thing about the GGEM is it's quicker with southern energy and it's east of 12z run. the GFS and GGEM both are faster now, and stronger with the lead wave. It gets kicked east as the next strong western wave digs deeply, and far enough west to keep cold aloft and heights low across both sides of the Apps, for NC and TENN. The models still don't have the right idea probably on the interaction of these 2 waves but the writing is on the wall that a significant winter storm is likely now, the question is how much precip, the strength and the temps , esp aloft. I think the high stays inland for number one, and with the cold air associated with number 2, that probably makes the next one wintry as well, esp. in Tenn. Valley, but thats just a rough guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's not all the same, but there really are a lot of similarities with the this storm and Jan. 10. You've got a weakening lead wave with a weak sfc low along the gulf, with a trailing wave diving in - all very similar. The origin of the lead wave is vastly different though, with this one originating in far SW Canada, whereas with the Jan 10 storm, the lead wave originated as a cutoff off Baja. With the Jan 10 storm, we saw the models trend stronger with the lead wave as we got closer to the event, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out here. The cold air doesn't look quite as strong with this one, but not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through 72 hours the Euro is cold, with zero at 850 to the Gulf coast. A litle snow at the coast, but its a hair east of the 12z run.. The system in the Rockies is at the 4 corners by 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the system in west Tex. is very pos. tilt, and looks weaker at 96. The northern Plains low is still there. The precip in Texas is very light, and theres a 1028 high in the eastern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through 72 hours the Euro is cold, with zero at 850 to the Gulf coast. A litle snow at the coast, but its a hair east of the 12z run.. The system in the Rockies is at the 4 corners by 78 hours. Thanks for the updates on the Euro Robert! I am so amazed at the potential and what now appears to be more wintry precip on the way (we do not know the extent, but it is amazing for our area...nonetheless!)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks for the updates on the Euro Robert! I am so amazed at the potential and what now appears to be more wintry precip on the way (we do not know the extent, but it is amazing for our area...nonetheless!)!! thanks, but I'm not sure there's going to be much precip on this run. The northern plains/Upper midwest low is strong and squashing the southern stream. The high over New England is stong and its plenty cold across the South, just not much precip except Texas to La. By 120, there is light precip just north of BHM to TUP area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Pretty strange how this evolves. Its actually colder west of the Apps than east (aloft) and at 126 theres snow in ATL but not snow in CLT...its probably ice but light. The northern Plains trough is a huge bowl shape and the southern stream is dampening out. But the strong high stays put in Northeast, so the low levels would be very cold both east and west of the Apps, just not much moisture. Very little precip in Tenn/western Carolinas. Good rains across south GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Tracking the trailing upper wave into Wisconsin is god-awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just catching up but Yep, euro sucks for just about everyone. Not even any freezing rain to speak of for north carolina except maybe the extreme northern foothills/mountains but it's not enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 thanks, but I'm not sure there's going to be much precip on this run. The northern plains/Upper midwest low is strong and squashing the southern stream. The high over New England is stong and its plenty cold across the South, just not much precip except Texas to La. By 120, there is light precip just north of BHM to TUP area Yep, but like you have mentioned many times...we should worry about the precip amounts (or have a better handle on them) closer to the event. One thing in our favor is these systems have overperformed on QPF amounts to a certain degree everytime. No? At least we have a colder look. If I am not mistaken, if it takes a little longer to arrive, we have a bettter chance of more snow and less ice, if there is a second shortwave? Just learning here bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 really need someone from the midlands of sc that can look out for us. what is the deal? Looks like a rain event for the midlands, regardless of which model you choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 138 and 144 the storm is going tup the coast and strengthening, actually rain to DC but colder behind it and some light snow in GA and the western Carolinas. Its impossible to predict this right now, anything could hapen, just to difficult to nail down the interaction of the N. Plains system and the Tex. system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 138 and 144 the storm is going tup the coast and strengthening, actually rain to DC but colder behind it and some light snow in GA and the western Carolinas. Its impossible to predict this right now, anything could hapen, just to difficult to nail down the interaction of the N. Plains system and the Tex. system. Yep. At least this run goes on to nail new england (another blizzard at face value) while partially screwing dc I know I'm terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 138 and 144 the storm is going tup the coast and strengthening, actually rain to DC but colder behind it and some light snow in GA and the western Carolinas. Its impossible to predict this right now, anything could hapen, just to difficult to nail down the interaction of the N. Plains system and the Tex. system. Bingo! Paying attention to model details right now, even the Euro, is futile. Just relax and wait a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Bingo! Paying attention to model details right now, even the Euro, is futile. Just relax and wait a couple more days. Cheez, As I am TRYING (using that term heavily) to learn here...you mentioned about the state of the NAO and next week being the week to watch. I have often times read where we receive a lot of our significant storms when the NAO is in transition. Is that a fact? If that is true, then does it matter if it is going negative or positive? Just curious how that plays out. I promise guys...I have made a promise to myself to get some "weather 101" skills this winter, after sitting on the bench all these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cheez, As I am TRYING (using that term heavily) to learn here...you mentioned about the state of the NAO and next week being the week to watch. I have often times read where we receive a lot of our significant storms when the NAO is in transition. Is that a fact? If that is true, then does it matter if it is going negative or positive? Just curious how that plays out. I promise guys...I have made a promise to myself to get some "weather 101" skills this winter, after sitting on the bench all these years. Not all NAOs are created equal- this one is rather weak, based more east of Greenland and transient, but is enough to at least give us some CAD. Usually the best chance for an eastern winter storm is after the NAO peaks but before it gets back to neutral or positive. However, there are so many other factors involved, such rules of thumb are very iffy, each situation has its own wrinkles as we are seeing with this upcoming system. Actually teleconnections are not really my strong suit, mets like HM and usedtobe are the real experts in that field. I am more of a short-medium range guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z GFS ens members show a sig amount of variability with the setup, even at 120 hrs, a buffet of RN-ZR-IP, and maybe even some SN, a metric ton of spread http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf114.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 UKMet sends the trailing wave deep into Arkansas. That's a very moist look, but our sfc high is retreating and probably a lot of warming aloft until you get close to the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z GFS has us all snow in NC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 6Z GFS is odd, takes the second short wave and buries in in Mexico- hugs shift from the previous. Probably bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 06z GFS at 120 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_120m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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