jburns Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 No wonder people laugh at the weatherman. RAL Monday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. So 28 degrees = rain or freezing rain 38 degrees = rain or freezing rain 27 degrees = plain rain BTW I know that is not what the are actually saying. Tues. night it could rain early, clear and the temp drop to 27.....but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it shows a good winter storm in the Southeast, with double barrel high, which would reduce warming aloft. Its probably not right though, but it is being more consistent than Euro. As Lookout stated, so many players on the field and a new one added daily its seems. Model madness for a while, but the "potential" is great for this one if everything falls into place at the right time. I'm afraid many would still be lookng at a good bit of ice, no matter which model. Robert, I have awful memories of 2002 mega ice storm here in Belmont (brought my little girl home from intensive care and a couple of days later we had no power-thank God for the gas logs). Anyway, taking a blend of all the model runs today....are we looking at more of a snow / ip soliution for our area? Or are the chances better than not of us seeing primarily zr? Taking all of this verbatim of course. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here is the thing... the GFS as is was a great setup... ignore the fact that it doesn't handle the southern stream features well... the fact of the matter was that the 500mb features over Canada were well placed for locking in the cold air over the east. The Euro, while similar at the surface to the GFS (in that it rises 850mb temps above freezing quite quickly), has quite a different 500mb setup over Canada. So don't look at this as the Euro trending towards the GFS, but more like the EURO perhaps catching on that the 500mb low over Canada won't be as strong. It makes sense too, because an east based -NAO isn't conductive for a stationary 500mb low over southeastern Canada... it will just slide north as the east -NAO ridge gives way. The GFS attempts to build in the -NAO a little bit more than the euro... but I'm not sure I buy it with a strong Polar Vortex over the North Pole (a lot of negative height anomalies). We have a -AO on paper, but this -AO is not nearly as robust as the one we were dealing with in late December / early January. Here the Polar Vortex holds together over the North Pole rather than being completely destroyed. Thus, unfortunately, I'm willing to believe the Euro over the GFS/JMA with respect to the 500mb pattern over Canada. I agree, I think that HIGH is just going to slide out of the way bringing rain to most in the SE. Maybe I40 N will have some issues in the morning but that's it. I'd have to see some serious change in the modeling to think this is going to amount to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like 18z GFS is speeding up our southern stream system -- precip arriving with CAD firmly in place through 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 108 looked good on h5... then at 120... h5 was no more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hr 144 closed off at h5 over northern mexico heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Robert, I have awful memories of 2002 mega ice storm here in Belmont (brought my little girl home from intensive care and a couple of days later we had no power-thank God for the gas logs). Anyway, taking a blend of all the model runs today....are we looking at more of a snow / ip soliution for our area? Or are the chances better than not of us seeing primarily zr? Taking all of this verbatim of course. Thanks!! right now it doesn't favor all snow but would favor all freezing and frozen precip, probably more ice than snow if the Euro is right. The biggest question for us is not the cold air, but how much precip? Usually this setup is all sub 32 at the surface here. Its still very early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 right now it doesn't favor all snow but would favor all freezing and frozen precip, probably more ice than snow if the Euro is right. The biggest question for us is not the cold air, but how much precip? Usually this setup is all sub 32 at the surface here. Its still very early though. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GFS has gone from giving me no snow to an all snow event(Albeit very light). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Was just noticing the same thing here.. 18GFS and it crazy games... The GFS has gone from giving me no snow to an all snow event(Albeit very light). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Was just noticing the same thing here.. 18GFS and it crazy games... That's our GFS...it might finally be catching on to the Euro...this makes the 00z runs tonight even more intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GFS has gone from giving me no snow to an all snow event(Albeit very light). Its trying to have a buy one , get one free sale too. Dives the northern Plains system southwest to Mexico, then brings it back north, just missing us. Actually I think it attaches to another Lakes diving s/w, and we get snow from that. The key question is what is happening to the northern Rockies or Canada s/w on Sunday/Monday and its tilt, which is a function of the PNA out west. That may not drop in and phase with the Tex wave like the Euro, it may kick it east/northeast, that would actually favor us with a stronger advection of moisture while its still cold. There's going to be changes each run til the models havea better handle. Looks like the strong damming high is legit though. Lets hope this doesn't trend wetter and warmer aloft, or we're in big ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That's our GFS...it might finally be catching on to the Euro...this makes the 00z runs tonight even more intriguing. yeah but the h5 from 108-120 gets eaten alive, typical bias of shearing southern stream energy too soon possibly. one would think if that wouldnt have happened then the qpf would be higher. and a stronger storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FYI, looks like the Canadian OP was in fairly severe disagreement with it's ensembles: OP: Mind you, those are ensemble means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Just going to throw this out there....anyone looked at the HPC 3-7 day surface maps....uncanny! Low is in the same place...riding the gulf....and also cked TWC weekly planner maps.....the pink, green, and white...shaded in the same areas....hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With no -NAO I don't see the storms being suppressed like December and earlier this month. I think coastal lows will trend north and west - maybe even west of the Apps. Clippers, much as tomorrow nights, will trend north. It will be interesting to see the trends on these next few storms in order to calibrate everone's thinking. Queencitywx's post w/ the Canadian operational at odds with its ensembles seems to illustrate this point. I would think that we would want to see the storm waaaay south right now. If the TN Valley is in the bullseye from 6-7 days out, I'm almost thinking a sloppy mess will rule. On the Canadian ensemble above, a high pressure in the plains would almost look like ice in the TN Valley. It certainly is an interesting pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im not getting too excited about the potential just yet.... way too much waffling on the models and without much in the way of blocking this has major icestorm written all over it. That is assuming we get any wintery precip in here. Of course I've learned my lesson and will trust your wisdom Robert. You have been on an amazing roll so far those winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im not getting too excited about the potential just yet.... way too much waffling on the models and without much in the way of blocking this has major icestorm written all over it. That is assuming we get any wintery precip in here. Of course I've learned my lesson and will trust your wisdom Robert. You have been on an amazing roll so far those winter. Yep...when the blocking returns all will be revealed. This is the winter of blocking, and we are only resting for a bit. I just hope the Pac. joins in the fun, for an amazing late Jan/Feb. But anytime is a fine time to get Foothillsed with ip/snow So I'm open while awaiting the blocking. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Look at all the different solutions with the 18Z GFS ensembles- goes along with the big spread in the Euro members. This one is going to be a hard one to pinpoint for another couple of days at least..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Look at all the different solutions with the 18Z GFS ensembles- goes along with the big spread in the Euro members. This one is going to be a hard one to pinpoint for another couple of days at least..... Good grief! A picture worth a 1000 words. I'll take p002 but almost NONE of the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With no -NAO I don't see the storms being suppressed like December and earlier this month. I think coastal lows will trend north and west - maybe even west of the Apps. Clippers, much as tomorrow nights, will trend north. It will be interesting to see the trends on these next few storms in order to calibrate everone's thinking. Queencitywx's post w/ the Canadian operational at odds with its ensembles seems to illustrate this point. I would think that we would want to see the storm waaaay south right now. If the TN Valley is in the bullseye from 6-7 days out, I'm almost thinking a sloppy mess will rule. On the Canadian ensemble above, a high pressure in the plains would almost look like ice in the TN Valley. It certainly is an interesting pattern. The nao is heading back down. All we really need is for this weak system off of the NC coast this weekend to phase into a strong 50/50 low and that would really setup a pattern that teleconnects to a phasing/miller a type setup. http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We've not had a big PNA like this yet this season, so I wouldn't trust any models yet. We see big changes in run to run usually with tall western ridges b/c the models never can sample the s/w coming over the ridge, and I'd be we start to see some changes on the northern Plains/Canada low soon in the models. But I'm also a little skeptical of how tall the PNA ridge is out west as models have built these before in error, we need more runs to be sure its happening. If it does, we're going to get cold again, and depending on how tall it is and how far west, we could really have an outbreak, after a phasing storm comes up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We've not had a big PNA like this yet this season, so I wouldn't trust any models yet. We see big changes in run to run usually with tall western ridges b/c the models never can sample the s/w coming over the ridge, and I'd be we start to see some changes on the northern Plains/Canada low soon in the models. But I'm also a little skeptical of how tall the PNA ridge is out west as models have built these before in error, we need more runs to be sure its happening. If it does, we're going to get cold again, and depending on how tall it is and how far west, we could really have an outbreak, after a phasing storm comes up the east coast. If the PNA ridge was in the right spot, could it force a -NAO to pop or is it the inverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The nao is heading back down. All we really need is for this weak system off of the NC coast this weekend to phase into a strong 50/50 low and that would really setup a pattern that teleconnects to a phasing/miller a type setup. http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html Thanks, HKY_WX. I did actually look at that this AM. Honestly, looking at the map the blocky look is still there IMO. Definitely would like to see a 50/50 low. Anyway, if the NAO were to hit and hold...yes, the suppressed look would still be in play per the 18z GFS. Agreed. On another note, donsutherland had an interesting perspective on the main board w/ the relationship in February between the AO and PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If the PNA ridge was in the right spot, could it force a -NAO to pop or is it the inverse? It might help, but we can have -nao without it, like we've seen. If we could get -nao and PNA it would really turn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It might help, but we can have -nao without it, like we've seen. If we could get -nao and PNA it would really turn cold. Right. We've definitely have had a -NAO w/out the PNA ridge for most of the winter. I guess I'm just wondering if a strong PNA ridge could help force the NAO to go negative just by the wavelengths involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Look at all the different solutions with the 18Z GFS ensembles- goes along with the big spread in the Euro members. This one is going to be a hard one to pinpoint for another couple of days at least..... Ah..yes...that definitely clears up matters..... How is anyone supposed to figure out that mess?? Silly GFS! geesh!! Seems like we will be in tracking mode for a while....and it seems while there is potential and possibilities...I'm sure we will all get our dose of heartache.... Hope that's followed by a good dose of too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DT has an excellent post today about blocking, or lack there of with the upcoming storm - http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is it just me, or does it seem like several of the models are depicting a setup very similar to the one from the January 25, 2004 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is it just me, or does it seem like several of the models are depicting a setup very similar to the one from the January 25, 2004 ice storm. It does have a similar look looking at NARR, but maybe the high in the NE doesn't stay quite as anchored in this go around...time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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