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Jan 24-25th threat


Cheeznado

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No wonder people laugh at the weatherman.

RAL

Monday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

So 28 degrees = rain or freezing rain

38 degrees = rain or freezing rain

27 degrees = plain rain

BTW I know that is not what the are actually saying. Tues. night it could rain early, clear and the temp drop to 27.....but still.

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it shows a good winter storm in the Southeast, with double barrel high, which would reduce warming aloft. Its probably not right though, but it is being more consistent than Euro. As Lookout stated, so many players on the field and a new one added daily its seems. Model madness for a while, but the "potential" is great for this one if everything falls into place at the right time. I'm afraid many would still be lookng at a good bit of ice, no matter which model.

Robert,

I have awful memories of 2002 mega ice storm here in Belmont (brought my little girl home from intensive care and a couple of days later we had no power-thank God for the gas logs). Anyway, taking a blend of all the model runs today....are we looking at more of a snow / ip soliution for our area? Or are the chances better than not of us seeing primarily zr? Taking all of this verbatim of course.

Thanks!!

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Here is the thing... the GFS as is was a great setup... ignore the fact that it doesn't handle the southern stream features well... the fact of the matter was that the 500mb features over Canada were well placed for locking in the cold air over the east. The Euro, while similar at the surface to the GFS (in that it rises 850mb temps above freezing quite quickly), has quite a different 500mb setup over Canada. So don't look at this as the Euro trending towards the GFS, but more like the EURO perhaps catching on that the 500mb low over Canada won't be as strong. It makes sense too, because an east based -NAO isn't conductive for a stationary 500mb low over southeastern Canada... it will just slide north as the east -NAO ridge gives way.

The GFS attempts to build in the -NAO a little bit more than the euro... but I'm not sure I buy it with a strong Polar Vortex over the North Pole (a lot of negative height anomalies). We have a -AO on paper, but this -AO is not nearly as robust as the one we were dealing with in late December / early January. Here the Polar Vortex holds together over the North Pole rather than being completely destroyed. Thus, unfortunately, I'm willing to believe the Euro over the GFS/JMA with respect to the 500mb pattern over Canada.

24qs2np.gif

I agree, I think that HIGH is just going to slide out of the way bringing rain to most in the SE. Maybe I40 N will have some issues in the morning but that's it. I'd have to see some serious change in the modeling to think this is going to amount to anything.

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Robert,

I have awful memories of 2002 mega ice storm here in Belmont (brought my little girl home from intensive care and a couple of days later we had no power-thank God for the gas logs). Anyway, taking a blend of all the model runs today....are we looking at more of a snow / ip soliution for our area? Or are the chances better than not of us seeing primarily zr? Taking all of this verbatim of course.

Thanks!!

right now it doesn't favor all snow but would favor all freezing and frozen precip, probably more ice than snow if the Euro is right. The biggest question for us is not the cold air, but how much precip? Usually this setup is all sub 32 at the surface here. Its still very early though.

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right now it doesn't favor all snow but would favor all freezing and frozen precip, probably more ice than snow if the Euro is right. The biggest question for us is not the cold air, but how much precip? Usually this setup is all sub 32 at the surface here. Its still very early though.

Thank you!

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The GFS has gone from giving me no snow to an all snow event(Albeit very light).

:arrowhead:

Its trying to have a buy one , get one free sale too. Dives the northern Plains system southwest to Mexico, then brings it back north, just missing us. Actually I think it attaches to another Lakes diving s/w, and we get snow from that. The key question is what is happening to the northern Rockies or Canada s/w on Sunday/Monday and its tilt, which is a function of the PNA out west. That may not drop in and phase with the Tex wave like the Euro, it may kick it east/northeast, that would actually favor us with a stronger advection of moisture while its still cold. There's going to be changes each run til the models havea better handle. Looks like the strong damming high is legit though. Lets hope this doesn't trend wetter and warmer aloft, or we're in big ice here.

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That's our GFS...it might finally be catching on to the Euro...this makes the 00z runs tonight even more intriguing.

yeah but the h5 from 108-120 gets eaten alive, typical bias of shearing southern stream energy too soon possibly. one would think if that wouldnt have happened then the qpf would be higher. and a stronger storm as well.

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With no -NAO I don't see the storms being suppressed like December and earlier this month. I think coastal lows will trend north and west - maybe even west of the Apps. Clippers, much as tomorrow nights, will trend north. It will be interesting to see the trends on these next few storms in order to calibrate everone's thinking. Queencitywx's post w/ the Canadian operational at odds with its ensembles seems to illustrate this point. I would think that we would want to see the storm waaaay south right now. If the TN Valley is in the bullseye from 6-7 days out, I'm almost thinking a sloppy mess will rule. On the Canadian ensemble above, a high pressure in the plains would almost look like ice in the TN Valley. It certainly is an interesting pattern.

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Im not getting too excited about the potential just yet.... way too much waffling on the models and without much in the way of blocking this has major icestorm written all over it. That is assuming we get any wintery precip in here.

Of course I've learned my lesson and will trust your wisdom Robert. You have been on an amazing roll so far those winter.

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Im not getting too excited about the potential just yet.... way too much waffling on the models and without much in the way of blocking this has major icestorm written all over it. That is assuming we get any wintery precip in here.

Of course I've learned my lesson and will trust your wisdom Robert. You have been on an amazing roll so far those winter.

Yep...when the blocking returns all will be revealed. This is the winter of blocking, and we are only resting for a bit. I just hope the Pac. joins in the fun, for an amazing late Jan/Feb.

But anytime is a fine time to get Foothillsed with ip/snow :) So I'm open while awaiting the blocking. T

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With no -NAO I don't see the storms being suppressed like December and earlier this month. I think coastal lows will trend north and west - maybe even west of the Apps. Clippers, much as tomorrow nights, will trend north. It will be interesting to see the trends on these next few storms in order to calibrate everone's thinking. Queencitywx's post w/ the Canadian operational at odds with its ensembles seems to illustrate this point. I would think that we would want to see the storm waaaay south right now. If the TN Valley is in the bullseye from 6-7 days out, I'm almost thinking a sloppy mess will rule. On the Canadian ensemble above, a high pressure in the plains would almost look like ice in the TN Valley. It certainly is an interesting pattern.

The nao is heading back down. All we really need is for this weak system off of the NC coast this weekend to phase into a strong 50/50 low and that would really setup a pattern that teleconnects to a phasing/miller a type setup.

http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

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We've not had a big PNA like this yet this season, so I wouldn't trust any models yet. We see big changes in run to run usually with tall western ridges b/c the models never can sample the s/w coming over the ridge, and I'd be we start to see some changes on the northern Plains/Canada low soon in the models. But I'm also a little skeptical of how tall the PNA ridge is out west as models have built these before in error, we need more runs to be sure its happening. If it does, we're going to get cold again, and depending on how tall it is and how far west, we could really have an outbreak, after a phasing storm comes up the east coast.

post-38-0-88426100-1295486111.gif

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We've not had a big PNA like this yet this season, so I wouldn't trust any models yet. We see big changes in run to run usually with tall western ridges b/c the models never can sample the s/w coming over the ridge, and I'd be we start to see some changes on the northern Plains/Canada low soon in the models. But I'm also a little skeptical of how tall the PNA ridge is out west as models have built these before in error, we need more runs to be sure its happening. If it does, we're going to get cold again, and depending on how tall it is and how far west, we could really have an outbreak, after a phasing storm comes up the east coast.

post-38-0-88426100-1295486111.gif

If the PNA ridge was in the right spot, could it force a -NAO to pop or is it the inverse?

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The nao is heading back down. All we really need is for this weak system off of the NC coast this weekend to phase into a strong 50/50 low and that would really setup a pattern that teleconnects to a phasing/miller a type setup.

http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

Thanks, HKY_WX. I did actually look at that this AM. Honestly, looking at the map the blocky look is still there IMO. Definitely would like to see a 50/50 low. Anyway, if the NAO were to hit and hold...yes, the suppressed look would still be in play per the 18z GFS. Agreed.

On another note, donsutherland had an interesting perspective on the main board w/ the relationship in February between the AO and PNA.

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It might help, but we can have -nao without it, like we've seen. If we could get -nao and PNA it would really turn cold.

Right. We've definitely have had a -NAO w/out the PNA ridge for most of the winter. I guess I'm just wondering if a strong PNA ridge could help force the NAO to go negative just by the wavelengths involved.

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Look at all the different solutions with the 18Z GFS ensembles- goes along with the big spread in the Euro members. This one is going to be a hard one to pinpoint for another couple of days at least.....

post-357-0-19016500-1295484261.gif

Ah..yes...that definitely clears up matters.....:huh::arrowhead: How is anyone supposed to figure out that mess?? Silly GFS! :wacko: geesh!! Seems like we will be in tracking mode for a while....and it seems while there is potential and possibilities...I'm sure we will all get our dose of heartache.... Hope that's followed by a good dose of :snowman: too!

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