Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What I meant was mostly sn/ip vs mostly zr...basically frozen vs freezing. It seems most of my qpf falls before 850's warm significantly. That being said, the full GFS soundings at 12z were a classic zr sounding. Yeah you are going to be in that area that's going to be tough to get a handle on precip type/amounts. This far away though, no need in worrying about those details other than to say you have a shot of everything it would seem. Further south, I still don't like the euro having that low in MN. This is a complicated mess since we have two lows on the field that will interact with the low level flow coming from our high. The euro is colder than it's prior run though at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This looks to be a "typical" ice event in ATL- from the far NE burbs into SC watch out, cold be nasty for a while but even there it will eventually warm up to near freezing before the dry air comes in. At my house in the heart of ATL, temps close to freezing at the start, then barely getting above, which is fine by me since I do not want major ice here. yeah, hopefully for ATL one the garden variety that only freeze on the trees and objects over 5 to 10 feet off the ground with up to tenth possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JMA is the best panel I've seen all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jma is all snow and major Atlanta north. It's definitely not ALL snow south of 40 but given where the 0 isotherm is at 144, you can probably assume 1/3rd to 1/2 of the qpf is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah you are going to be in that area that's going to be tough to get a handle on precip type/amounts. This far away though, no need in worrying about those details other than to say you have a shot of everything it would seem. Further south, I still don't like the euro having that low in MN. This is a complicated mess since we have two lows on the field that will interact with the low level flow coming from our high. The euro is colder than it's prior run though at the surface. I never, ever like seeing lows in the upper Midwest...that's normally the kiss of death for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it shows a good winter storm in the Southeast, with double barrel high, which would reduce warming aloft. Its probably not right though, but it is being more consistent than Euro. As Lookout stated, so many players on the field and a new one added daily its seems. Model madness for a while, but the "potential" is great for this one if everything falls into place at the right time. I'm afraid many would still be lookng at a good bit of ice, no matter which model. Not if the JMA is right, Which is a big if but i sure hope it is. Gives your house close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This has the look of a whole bunch of meh...models are all over the place but the consensus right now is not enough cold air hanging on. CAD fail I think. We just need to get the -NAO back with blocking. That's what I'm going start looking for in the models. It will probably be a few weeks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The trough axis at day 6 is pretty remarkable, about as extreme as i've seen. Moisture would be streaming out of the central gulf due NNE. Pretty incredible if you just look at the upper level features. I think the euro is basically hinting at a big phase job b/n the southern vort sitting over texas day 5 and the incoming wave over the dakotas. If the timing is right this would be a mega storm. JMA has been hinting at this for a while. JMA at day 6 has probably the best cad setup since jan 04. the main problem i see with the euro is it lets the southern s/w sit for 24 hrs for the northern stream and then phases it. imho last nights run made a little more sense instead of slowing the lead wave down so much it just kept moving and there was a weak slp that went up the coast. just wondering why it has the southern wave waiting so long on the northern stream. not saying it wont phases just found it kinda odd the way it got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I hate to analyze the JMA too much given its record, but it's been consistent with a consolidated system well before crossing the MS River, so no midwest lows or dampening s/w's ahead of the trough. Just a big 1040 HP over the benchmark spot in SE Canada with HP spreading all the way back into the SW and a near consolidated gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Greenville, SC (and most of Upstate SC) experienced a catastrophic ice storm in Dec 2005. Here are some interesting front pages from the Greenville News from this historic storm. Fortunately, Duke Power has begun the process of burying major power and residential lines in Upstate SC. I recall my sister-in-law and her family (who live near downtown Greenville) were without power for one week. If you look at the link it shows four newpaper front pages. The one on the far left is a picture take less than 50 feet from my front door. UGLY STORM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm concerned looking at the 12z euro... unlike the GFS, the reason why the CAD doesn't stay in place is because we don't get the 500mb low to cutoff or persist over Southeast Canada. It will likely allow the high to move offshore and thus the damming will be in-situ and weaker. Basically, it has a legitimate reason for warming up the southeastern US so you can't just discount it. Euro 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I hate to analyze the JMA too much given its record, but it's been consistent with a consolidated system well before crossing the MS River, so no midwest lows or dampening s/w's ahead of the trough. Just a big 1040 HP over the benchmark spot in SE Canada with HP spreading all the way back into the SW and a near consolidated gulf low. Maybe it's just weenie judgment, but the JMA hasn't been that bad this year (dealing with SE storms) from what I have seen. I don't have it's verification stats, so I may be wrong, but alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JMA is just a day quicker with the storm. -- I only have out to 144 on the JMA, but its I'm concerned looking at the 12z euro... unlike the GFS, the reason why the CAD doesn't stay in place is because we don't get the 500mb low to cutoff or persist over Southeast Canada. It will likely allow the high to move offshore and thus the damming will be in-situ and weaker. Basically, it has a legitimate reason for warming up the southeastern US so you can't just discount it. Euro 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe it's just weenie judgment, but the JMA hasn't been that bad this year (dealing with SE storms) from what I have seen. I don't have it's verification stats, so I may be wrong, but alas. As I said earlier I think the JMA is good with phasing storms in the 2-4 day range...IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't don't have much faith in the JMA, especially when it looks nothing like the Euro in regards to the 500mb features over Canada. For example, the JMA has a very deep cutoff 5040 meter low over Newfoundland at 144 hours. The Euro only shows a trough north of Newfoundland at around 5220 meters. Thats the key difference in my opinion. I could care less how the shortwave features look in the US, if we don't have a robust low in southeast Canada, we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 As I said earlier I think the JMA is good with phasing storms in the 2-4 day range...IIRC If we have to resort to looking at the JMA to give us hope then that can't be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Plus RaleighWx is out of town next week, no way it snows here if he is gone, so we can all blame Allan for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't don't have much faith in the JMA, especially when it looks nothing like the Euro in regards to the 500mb features over Canada. For example, the JMA has a very deep cutoff 5040 meter low over Newfoundland at 144 hours. The Euro only shows a trough north of Newfoundland at around 5220 meters. Thats the key difference in my opinion. I could care less how the shortwave features look in the US, if we don't have a robust low in southeast Canada, we are toast. 100 percent correct. Little else matters without that feature. That is the key to this whole thing, unless the low can really wrap up in the Gulf and track up the coast, just offshore--a solution that doesn't even appear to be on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't don't have much faith in the JMA, especially when it looks nothing like the Euro in regards to the 500mb features over Canada. For example, the JMA has a very deep cutoff 5040 meter low over Newfoundland at 144 hours. The Euro only shows a trough north of Newfoundland at around 5220 meters. Thats the key difference in my opinion. I could care less how the shortwave features look in the US, if we don't have a robust low in southeast Canada, we are toast. So we had better pull for the coastal storm this weekend to really bomb out, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll take this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ensemble looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll take this one: You and me both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well the Euro pretty much nailed this Friday storm at roughly inside 4-5 days out and the NAM/GFS/GGEM have all been playing catch up since. So we are going to want the Euro to be onto something come tomorrow's runs. The past couple of runs have been going the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 An unusual amount of spread in the Euro ensembles even as soon as 72 hours, same general scenario but a lot of options on the table- mean shows CAD similar to Op but regarding the short waves coming in from the west- there is little agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This Friday storm has really fizzled out for the MA/NE folks, hopefully it will trend stronger and west for them in the next day or so. The 18z NAM brushes the OBX with a little snow this Sat/Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here is the thing... the GFS as is was a great setup... ignore the fact that it doesn't handle the southern stream features well... the fact of the matter was that the 500mb features over Canada were well placed for locking in the cold air over the east. The Euro, while similar at the surface to the GFS (in that it rises 850mb temps above freezing quite quickly), has quite a different 500mb setup over Canada. So don't look at this as the Euro trending towards the GFS, but more like the EURO perhaps catching on that the 500mb low over Canada won't be as strong. It makes sense too, because an east based -NAO isn't conductive for a stationary 500mb low over southeastern Canada... it will just slide north as the east -NAO ridge gives way. The GFS attempts to build in the -NAO a little bit more than the euro... but I'm not sure I buy it with a strong Polar Vortex over the North Pole (a lot of negative height anomalies). We have a -AO on paper, but this -AO is not nearly as robust as the one we were dealing with in late December / early January. Here the Polar Vortex holds together over the North Pole rather than being completely destroyed. Thus, unfortunately, I'm willing to believe the Euro over the GFS/JMA with respect to the 500mb pattern over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Enjoy the beautiful weather Wednesday afternoon because a potential ice storm could be headed our way next week. Arctic air is currently building over Canada and that cold air will move into the Carolinas this weekend. "That's going to set the stage for what's going to be heading our way early next week. A potential ice storm is in the offing for Monday night into Tuesday," said chief meteorologist Brad Panovich. A high-pressure system in the Northeast will create a cold wedge of air over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system will bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. "The low pressure system will throw moisture over the cold-air mass and its likely going to be ice," Panovich said. If the current forecast models hold true, freezing rain could begin around rush hour Monday evening and last through Tuesday morning, leaving about 1/4 inch of ice. "That's enough to bring down power lines and tree limbs," Panovich said. "Stay tuned. This could be a dicey situation with arctic air moving in over the weekend." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 BMX HWO for Monday, 1/24 has a "1" for Winter Weather for late in the day...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 EURO ensembles look much better to my untrained eye. System is moving faster and takes a more favorable position of SC/GA coast. One negative is that the Arctic high looks weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's FFC's afternoon discussion (long term). .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN DOMINATE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKENDBEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.CURRENT FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL OKAY FOR NOW BUT WITHMODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEDGE...FREEZING RAIN STARTING TOBECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEMPULLING EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSUREBECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.