Wow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 @138 it's ice for NC verbatim...this will be messy. at the start it looks close. HP further east. please be rain. I want no part of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The precip coming in finally at 132 for the Carolinas, southern Tenn and Ga looks very light, and the temps aloft are warming, thanks to the strong northern Plains low. That low keeps inching east, and I suspect the models aren't handling it right yet. The damming is still strong hower at 1036 Ecit by 138 the precip is a little heavier, but temps are only freezing aloft in nw NC, however the damming at the surface is still strong. Looks like I-40 would be in major trouble if this came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z euro is a bit colder at the surface, surface freezing like down into extreme northeast Ga (mountains), 20s in western nc at 132, only light precip. By hour 138, western nc/upstate, possibly extreme northeast Ga is subfreezing with 0.10 to 0.25 amounts. 850mb 0c runs from just north of hky to gso and just south of the va border. Looks like snow/sleet/freezing rain mix in nc, freezing rain in the upstate and extreme ne ga..but amounts are only 0.10 or less in north ga. Still subfreezing in the same areas at hour 144. Total precip is around 0.25 to 0.50 in nc, and 0.25 or less in nc ga/upstate. Decent winter storm for the damming regions of nc..just a minor event for extreme ne ga/upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 at the start it looks close. HP further east. please be rain. I want no part of ice. Yep, we are just on the edge...but knowing how the Euro usually underplays the sfc temps during CAD events it will probably be ice...and if the qpf is relatively close it will be a bad icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like about an inch of snow falls here before the transition to IP or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro still has a weak coastal at 84, with light precip in eastern Carolinas and now includes coastal GA but the better precip is just offshore. It has some .75" just offshore MYR. By 96 hours, the western system has dug almost to El Paso. interesting the EURO is trending toward a coastal surprise on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 interesting the EURO is trending toward a coastal surprise on Saturday It looks a little warm at the sfc but I think youre good in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well 12z EURO at 144 the 1038 high is even further east than 0z run, not trending the way we want. Allan's writeup talks about this, I don't see how this is going to pan out to anything worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 850's only warm to 2.8 here in the height of the precip...mostly sn/ip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00Z Ukie certainly is rather interesting, better CAD and a stronger trough to the west- Look at all those L's! It looks like Clemson's record at Chapel Hill! (As a Clemson alum, I can say that!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like it gets the hickory area with mostly snow...so I'd imagine we'd be mostly IP with mostly ZR across the upstate from GSP to UZA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well 12z EURO at 144 the 1038 high is even further east than 0z run, not trending the way we want. Allan's writeup talks about this, I don't see how this is going to pan out to anything worthwhile. Euro verbatim RDU areas are close to ice..but just a little too warm. Same it looks like for the CLT metro area and points east...though certainly closer for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 boy that thing wraps up hard in the NE and SNE...they are probably very upset at the temps on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well 12z EURO at 144 the 1038 high is even further east than 0z run, not trending the way we want. Allan's writeup talks about this, I don't see how this is going to pan out to anything worthwhile. Maybe in the eastern carolinas, that's true. Over in this part of the state, it looks like a significant winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I guess the big question is how much precip falls while the High is in position. Its too bad we have all the extra s/w coming in the western part of Canada, or we could have a really good gulf low consolidated.It appears the first s/w dampens out a good bit then gets more lift going in the Southeast as the northern plains low drops south and keeps moisture going over the boundary. The models have had strong damming several runs now , so its probably going to happen, the only question is the amount of moisture. I'd also say the models, esp. the Euro is really bad on surface temps in CAD, it wouldn't suprise me to see temps in the 20's down to very near northeast side of ATL during the precip, esp. the Upstate and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 The "kicker" short wave really comes in nicely and then goes all nutty to the north- this would be a bit of snow at the end for quite a few and a good thump for the mountains..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 850's only warm to 2.8 here in the height of the precip...mostly sn/ip? That's going to be too warm for snow. Depending on how thick the the warm layer and surface cold layer is, it could be sleet. But I would think that's probably going to be freezing rain with 850s that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It looks a little warm at the sfc but I think youre good in the upper levels. yeah its funny, TWC (yeah I know) has had mixed precip in the forecast on Saturday for Conway, SC for the past 36 hours. They must be looking at the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I guess the big question is how much precip falls while the High is in position. Its too bad we have all the extra s/w coming in the western part of Canada, or we could have a really good gulf low consolidated.It appears the first s/w dampens out a good bit then gets more lift going in the Southeast as the northern plains low drops south and keeps moisture going over the boundary. The models have had strong damming several runs now , so its probably going to happen, the only question is the amount of moisture. I'd also say the models, esp. the Euro is really bad on surface temps in CAD, it wouldn't suprise me to see temps in the 20's down to very near northeast side of ATL during the precip, esp. the Upstate and NC. This looks like a setup for model mayhem. I think it's going to be tough for the models to get a good handle on this since there are a lot of players on the field. Gfs, ggem, and the euro all seem to have a different solution. Probably won't get a good handle on it until we are within a day or two of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe in the eastern carolinas, that's true. Over in this part of the state, it looks like a significant winter event. Maybe, but the 12z UKIE is an Apps runner. GGEM/EURO are inland runners, not App yet, but we will see. 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I guess the big question is how much precip falls while the High is in position. Its too bad we have all the extra s/w coming in the western part of Canada, or we could have a really good gulf low consolidated.It appears the first s/w dampens out a good bit then gets more lift going in the Southeast as the northern plains low drops south and keeps moisture going over the boundary. The models have had strong damming several runs now , so its probably going to happen, the only question is the amount of moisture. I'd also say the models, esp. the Euro is really bad on surface temps in CAD, it wouldn't suprise me to see temps in the 20's down to very near northeast side of ATL during the precip, esp. the Upstate and NC. This looks to be a "typical" ice event in ATL- from the far NE burbs into SC watch out, cold be nasty for a while but even there it will eventually warm up to near freezing before the dry air comes in. At my house in the heart of ATL, temps close to freezing at the start, then barely getting above, which is fine by me since I do not want major ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That's going to be too warm for snow. Depending on how thick the the warm layer and surface cold layer is, it could be sleet. But I would think that's probably going to be freezing rain with 850s that warm. What I meant was mostly sn/ip vs mostly zr...basically frozen vs freezing. It seems most of my qpf falls before 850's warm significantly. That being said, the full GFS soundings at 12z were a classic zr sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Chances for a widespread SE winter storm are going down the drain rapidly. Right now, western and west central NC, NW SC and NE GA are game for some snow/ice, but with the precip continuing to be delayed and that high hauling ace on off the coast, insitu is what we'll be left with. No 50-50 and no blocking is going to do this one in. The only thing that will save it is perfect timing, and we are quickly trending the wrong direction for perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe, but the 12z UKIE is an Apps runner. GGEM/EURO are inland runners, not App yet, but we will see. 12z UK I can tell you right now the uk is likely wrong since it tries to take the low directly into the heart of the wedge. More than likely it will trend south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well the 12z JMA looks OK, 1033 high just west of the lakes but not sure how to read the 500 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jma is all snow and major Atlanta north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The trough axis at day 6 is pretty remarkable, about as extreme as i've seen. Moisture would be streaming out of the central gulf due NNE. Pretty incredible if you just look at the upper level features. I think the euro is basically hinting at a big phase job b/n the southern vort sitting over texas day 5 and the incoming wave over the dakotas. If the timing is right this would be a mega storm. JMA has been hinting at this for a while. JMA at day 6 has probably the best cad setup since jan 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 One thing I'd prefer to see as we inch closer: lower dewpoints ahead of the event. The euro has me pegged at 37/20 right before the precip starts falling. I'd much prefer lower teens/upper single digits in place for a significant zr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What happened in Dec 2005? Ice storm? I don't remember that for CLT. I think I remember one limited to the mountains. For Charlotte I think you'd have to go back to 2002. And I'm not sure whether or not that was a CAD event or not. Just lots of ice. Greenville, SC (and most of Upstate SC) experienced a catastrophic ice storm in Dec 2005. Here are some interesting front pages from the Greenville News from this historic storm. Fortunately, Duke Power has begun the process of burying major power and residential lines in Upstate SC. I recall my sister-in-law and her family (who live near downtown Greenville) were without power for one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well the 12z JMA looks OK, 1033 high just west of the lakes but not sure how to read the 500 setup. it shows a good winter storm in the Southeast, with double barrel high, which would reduce warming aloft. Its probably not right though, but it is being more consistent than Euro. As Lookout stated, so many players on the field and a new one added daily its seems. Model madness for a while, but the "potential" is great for this one if everything falls into place at the right time. I'm afraid many would still be lookng at a good bit of ice, no matter which model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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