RaleighWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here are my thoughts on the coming events http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/coastal-sections-may-see-some-snow-this-weekend-bigger-storm-possible-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GGEm is focusing on a different s/w to develop the big storm, and is 12 hours slower to do so, versus ECMWF. The precip still hasn't made it to the Carolinas yet at 144 but just west and southwest across N Ga and points west to Texas have had or are in snow and ice. Everything is futher west. Its 5H setup would be a major winter storm in DFW to ATL region, but its a little wishy washy like the GFS at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 9 times out of 10, if DFW gets it, B'ham and Atlanta (and points further East) get it too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's crazy is this is a perfect track for a lot of people, northern gulf, to the panhandle of FL, to the southeast GA coast............yet a track of rain. That low is really going to suck if it's as advertised on the 12z gfs. On to the next 12z model solution. Again I wouldn't sweat the GFS... its once again having an exceptionally difficult time resolving shortwaves. If you remember the last storm (January 10th), it showed a solution something like this at the time with light QPF and 850mb temperatures above freezing for a lot of the southeast. Alot of this was due to the GFS over-complicating the shortwave pattern, depicting too many elements without any cohesive shortwave. In the end, there was the southern stream shortwave that brought our winter precipitation... and then the rockies upper shortwave that came in afterwards to produce a Northeast Snowstorm. 2 elements that didn't have that much interaction. Just look at the position of the 500mb low... its in the proper position for decent damming. However, the GFS just doesn't know how to handle all the shortwaves. At 126 hrs, we have 3 pieces of energy... and the GFS manages to keep them all separate despite being in close proximity to one another with little reason to keep them separate. It ends up digging the far west energy piece further west while the northern most piece of energy continues to move east. With the building ridge to the west, that frankly makes little sense. In fact this feature appears to split into two different features. My question is why? The euro solution is far less complicated and honestly just makes more sense... it does dampen out the leading shortwave like the gfs, but the second shortwave is a much more cohesive feature with no evidence of splitting. Thus, this feature acts to intensify the low, which helps to drive more CAA initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 9 times out of 10, if DFW gets it, B'ham and Atlanta (and points further East) get it too.... Except last year (when DFW got a foot while places further east got nothing). That was an amazing storm for them, though. They basically got 5-6 winters worth of snow in a single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I vote for the GGEM, I'd rather hope for good storm that has cold air to work with rather than seeing a transitory HIGH get pushed out by the storm. I'm not feeling too confident about this bugger early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Except last year (when DFW got a foot while places further east got nothing). That was an amazing storm for them, though. They basically got 5-6 winters worth of snow in a single storm. I remember it well...My dad lives in McKinney, TX (just north of Dallas), and he got slammed...That was the 1 out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow, rapid warming ensues on the Canadian after hr144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Canadian is all systems go. Much colder look with strong high pressure over the midwest and NE....don't have the low tracking into the midwest warming us up. Strong wave in Texas ready to round the bend and head into the SE. Snow breaking out in N MS / AL Actually it turns out pretty bad. It holds everything back so long that waa takes over, despite the surface features being a bit better this run for cad. The cold air might hold long enough for western nc but for most it's all rain on these panels...save maybe some light stuff at hour 156. Doesn't matter though since precip doesn't get organized until it's far too warm. Here is hour 156 and 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Again I wouldn't sweat the GFS... its once again having an exceptionally difficult time resolving shortwaves. If you remember the last storm (January 10th), it showed a solution something like this at the time with light QPF and 850mb temperatures above freezing for a lot of the southeast. Alot of this was due to the GFS over-complicating the shortwave pattern, depicting too many elements without any cohesive shortwave. In the end, there was the southern stream shortwave that brought our winter precipitation... and then the rockies upper shortwave that came in afterwards to produce a Northeast Snowstorm. 2 elements that didn't have that much interaction. Just look at the position of the 500mb low... its in the proper position for decent damming. However, the GFS just doesn't know how to handle all the shortwaves. At 126 hrs, we have 3 pieces of energy... and the GFS manages to keep them all separate despite being in close proximity to one another with little reason to keep them separate. It ends up digging the far west energy piece further west while the northern most piece of energy continues to move east. With the building ridge to the west, that frankly makes little sense. In fact this feature appears to split into two different features. My question is why? The euro solution is far less complicated and honestly just makes more sense... it does dampen out the leading shortwave like the gfs, but the second shortwave is a much more cohesive feature with no evidence of splitting. Thus, this feature acts to intensify the low, which helps to drive more CAA initially. excellent post I agree. The GFS a lot of times doesn't make sense, even though its upper air features look a lot like the Euro. Its just the way that model usually is even only a few days out. Given its biases and errors, I think thats its showing a pretty good setup, as well as the GGEM and Ukmet right now. The Euro too me looks way too strong on the eastern Canada storm though, and I expect it to back off on the strength of that soon, but hopefully has things backed up just a little more in the Plains, which would be a little more snowier look and less ice for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Even the Canadian says a change to rain most places especially here- look how fast the CAD high weakens/retreats offshore between 168 and 180- this is because of the lack of a stronger block near Greenland. Still, taken literally it would be a brief snow and fairly long ice event for NC, hopefully not too bad in the ice department if the heavier precip holds off, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Even the Canadian says a change to rain most places especially here- look how fast the CAD high weakens/retreats offshore between 168 and 180- this is because of the lack of a stronger block near Greenland. Still, taken literally it would be a brief snow and fairly long ice event for many, hopefully not too bad in the ice department. I'm surprised the Candian doesn't have a stronger high in the damming area. I would expect it to show atleast a 1060 with the way it overdoes high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What happened in Dec 2005? Ice storm? I don't remember that for CLT. I think I remember one limited to the mountains. For Charlotte I think you'd have to go back to 2002. And I'm not sure whether or not that was a CAD event or not. Just lots of ice. it was probably the worse (or second worse) ice storm i have ever seen. no power for 4 days, entire county lost power and a lot of trees came down. also, peeps here were honking big time about it (foothills, lookout, hky, rw etc) while we werent supposed to get anything. we got slammed and warnings kept expanding as the event unfolded down to the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro to 60, no big changes yet from previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it was probably the worse (or second worse) ice storm i have ever seen. no power for 4 days, entire county lost power and a lot of trees came down. also, peeps here were honking big time about it (foothills, lookout, hky, rw etc) while we werent supposed to get anything. we got slammed and warnings kept expanding as the event unfolded down to the sw That storm was mostly a very cold rain here, some ice early am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That storm was mostly a very cold rain here, some ice early am. really? yall didnt get the ice storm? i wouldnt know cos without power (and before a smart phone and ipad) and without internet for days so i didnt really know much of what was going on during and immediately after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro at 84- stronger and slower with first short wave over the SE (the one that affects eastern NC), also slower/stronger with Rockies short wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro still has a weak coastal at 84, with light precip in eastern Carolinas and now includes coastal GA but the better precip is just offshore. It has some .75" just offshore MYR. By 96 hours, the western system has dug almost to El Paso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 really? yall didnt get the ice storm? i wouldnt know cos without power (and before a smart phone and ipad) and without internet for days so i didnt really know much of what was going on during and immediately after the storm. We got hit good in Braselton. I didn't lose power, but lost a few trees and several are still permanently bent from that storm. I remember it being very confined to the 85 corridor and it didn't go any further south than Gwinnett Co. if I recall correctly. I also remember it unfolding just like you said - no worries from the local TV mets (except for Ken Cook) and no warnings from FFC until the event was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What happened in Dec 2005? Ice storm? I don't remember that for CLT. I think I remember one limited to the mountains. For Charlotte I think you'd have to go back to 2002. And I'm not sure whether or not that was a CAD event or not. Just lots of ice. I don't know the effects in CLT but I know we got hit hard and so did the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the wave in Texas at 108 looks pretty weak and pos. tilted. Not a lot of moisture with it, but some snow in north Texas. The northern Plains low may be the stronger s/w. Theres a 1032 high damming east of the Apps at 114, all the way to east Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro 108- big differences with the CAD high- the low that gives the eastern Carolinas snow no longer bombs off the NE coast- also the CAD high builds in faster but the SE is a bit warmer . Western short wave a bit stronger. same speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The high is still strengthening at 120, its 1036 in New England, but no precip yet in Ga or the Carolinas. Its petty cold down to I-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if its not illegal, can someone post the 84 hour euro map? I dont have in between hours, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Dont we need that low to bomb out to help slow down the high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if its not illegal, can someone post the 84 hour euro map? I dont have in between hours, thanks Why do you care about 84 hours in the Jan 24th - 25th thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 because this is where it was talked about and no one is posting in the other thread... I am sorry it does not involve Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 @138 it's ice for NC verbatim...this will be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 because this is where it was talked about and no one is posting in the other thread... I am sorry it does not involve Charlotte Make a thread dude. If you post it they will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The precip coming in finally at 132 for the Carolinas, southern Tenn and Ga looks very light, and the temps aloft are warming, thanks to the strong northern Plains low. That low keeps inching east, and I suspect the models aren't handling it right yet. The damming is still strong hower at 1036 Ecit by 138 the precip is a little heavier, but temps are only freezing aloft in nw NC, however the damming at the surface is still strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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