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Jan 24-25th threat


Cheeznado

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The GGEm is focusing on a different s/w to develop the big storm, and is 12 hours slower to do so, versus ECMWF. The precip still hasn't made it to the Carolinas yet at 144 but just west and southwest across N Ga and points west to Texas have had or are in snow and ice. Everything is futher west. Its 5H setup would be a major winter storm in DFW to ATL region, but its a little wishy washy like the GFS at that range.

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What's crazy is this is a perfect track for a lot of people, northern gulf, to the panhandle of FL, to the southeast GA coast............yet a track of rain. That low is really going to suck if it's as advertised on the 12z gfs. On to the next 12z model solution.

Again I wouldn't sweat the GFS... its once again having an exceptionally difficult time resolving shortwaves. If you remember the last storm (January 10th), it showed a solution something like this at the time with light QPF and 850mb temperatures above freezing for a lot of the southeast. Alot of this was due to the GFS over-complicating the shortwave pattern, depicting too many elements without any cohesive shortwave. In the end, there was the southern stream shortwave that brought our winter precipitation... and then the rockies upper shortwave that came in afterwards to produce a Northeast Snowstorm. 2 elements that didn't have that much interaction.

t019ap.jpg

Just look at the position of the 500mb low... its in the proper position for decent damming. However, the GFS just doesn't know how to handle all the shortwaves. At 126 hrs, we have 3 pieces of energy... and the GFS manages to keep them all separate despite being in close proximity to one another with little reason to keep them separate. It ends up digging the far west energy piece further west while the northern most piece of energy continues to move east. With the building ridge to the west, that frankly makes little sense. In fact this feature appears to split into two different features. My question is why?

2di4jes.gif

The euro solution is far less complicated and honestly just makes more sense... it does dampen out the leading shortwave like the gfs, but the second shortwave is a much more cohesive feature with no evidence of splitting. Thus, this feature acts to intensify the low, which helps to drive more CAA initially.

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Except last year (when DFW got a foot while places further east got nothing). :(

That was an amazing storm for them, though. They basically got 5-6 winters worth of snow in a single storm.

I remember it well...My dad lives in McKinney, TX (just north of Dallas), and he got slammed...That was the 1 out of 10 :gun_bandana:

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Canadian is all systems go. Much colder look with strong high pressure over the midwest and NE....don't have the low tracking into the midwest warming us up. Strong wave in Texas ready to round the bend and head into the SE. Snow breaking out in N MS / AL

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Actually it turns out pretty bad. It holds everything back so long that waa takes over, despite the surface features being a bit better this run for cad. The cold air might hold long enough for western nc but for most it's all rain on these panels...save maybe some light stuff at hour 156. Doesn't matter though since precip doesn't get organized until it's far too warm.

Here is hour 156 and 168

f156.gif

f168.gif

f180.gif

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Again I wouldn't sweat the GFS... its once again having an exceptionally difficult time resolving shortwaves. If you remember the last storm (January 10th), it showed a solution something like this at the time with light QPF and 850mb temperatures above freezing for a lot of the southeast. Alot of this was due to the GFS over-complicating the shortwave pattern, depicting too many elements without any cohesive shortwave. In the end, there was the southern stream shortwave that brought our winter precipitation... and then the rockies upper shortwave that came in afterwards to produce a Northeast Snowstorm. 2 elements that didn't have that much interaction.

Just look at the position of the 500mb low... its in the proper position for decent damming. However, the GFS just doesn't know how to handle all the shortwaves. At 126 hrs, we have 3 pieces of energy... and the GFS manages to keep them all separate despite being in close proximity to one another with little reason to keep them separate. It ends up digging the far west energy piece further west while the northern most piece of energy continues to move east. With the building ridge to the west, that frankly makes little sense. In fact this feature appears to split into two different features. My question is why?

The euro solution is far less complicated and honestly just makes more sense... it does dampen out the leading shortwave like the gfs, but the second shortwave is a much more cohesive feature with no evidence of splitting. Thus, this feature acts to intensify the low, which helps to drive more CAA initially.

excellent post I agree. The GFS a lot of times doesn't make sense, even though its upper air features look a lot like the Euro. Its just the way that model usually is even only a few days out. Given its biases and errors, I think thats its showing a pretty good setup, as well as the GGEM and Ukmet right now. The Euro too me looks way too strong on the eastern Canada storm though, and I expect it to back off on the strength of that soon, but hopefully has things backed up just a little more in the Plains, which would be a little more snowier look and less ice for some.

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Even the Canadian says a change to rain most places especially here- look how fast the CAD high weakens/retreats offshore between 168 and 180- this is because of the lack of a stronger block near Greenland. Still, taken literally it would be a brief snow and fairly long ice event for NC, hopefully not too bad in the ice department if the heavier precip holds off,

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Even the Canadian says a change to rain most places especially here- look how fast the CAD high weakens/retreats offshore between 168 and 180- this is because of the lack of a stronger block near Greenland. Still, taken literally it would be a brief snow and fairly long ice event for many, hopefully not too bad in the ice department.

I'm surprised the Candian doesn't have a stronger high in the damming area. I would expect it to show atleast a 1060 :axe: with the way it overdoes high pressure.

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What happened in Dec 2005? Ice storm? I don't remember that for CLT. I think I remember one limited to the mountains. For Charlotte I think you'd have to go back to 2002. And I'm not sure whether or not that was a CAD event or not. Just lots of ice.

it was probably the worse (or second worse) ice storm i have ever seen. no power for 4 days, entire county lost power and a lot of trees came down. also, peeps here were honking big time about it (foothills, lookout, hky, rw etc) while we werent supposed to get anything. we got slammed and warnings kept expanding as the event unfolded down to the sw

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it was probably the worse (or second worse) ice storm i have ever seen. no power for 4 days, entire county lost power and a lot of trees came down. also, peeps here were honking big time about it (foothills, lookout, hky, rw etc) while we werent supposed to get anything. we got slammed and warnings kept expanding as the event unfolded down to the sw

That storm was mostly a very cold rain here, some ice early am.

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That storm was mostly a very cold rain here, some ice early am.

really? yall didnt get the ice storm? i wouldnt know cos without power (and before a smart phone and ipad) and without internet for days so i didnt really know much of what was going on during and immediately after the storm.

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really? yall didnt get the ice storm? i wouldnt know cos without power (and before a smart phone and ipad) and without internet for days so i didnt really know much of what was going on during and immediately after the storm.

We got hit good in Braselton. I didn't lose power, but lost a few trees and several are still permanently bent from that storm. I remember it being very confined to the 85 corridor and it didn't go any further south than Gwinnett Co. if I recall correctly.

I also remember it unfolding just like you said - no worries from the local TV mets (except for Ken Cook) and no warnings from FFC until the event was happening.

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What happened in Dec 2005? Ice storm? I don't remember that for CLT. I think I remember one limited to the mountains. For Charlotte I think you'd have to go back to 2002. And I'm not sure whether or not that was a CAD event or not. Just lots of ice.

I don't know the effects in CLT but I know we got hit hard and so did the Upstate.

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The precip coming in finally at 132 for the Carolinas, southern Tenn and Ga looks very light, and the temps aloft are warming, thanks to the strong northern Plains low. That low keeps inching east, and I suspect the models aren't handling it right yet. The damming is still strong hower at 1036 Ecit by 138 the precip is a little heavier, but temps are only freezing aloft in nw NC, however the damming at the surface is still strong.

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