BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB lkes a inland track also, He likes ICE ICE BABY for the piedmont of Carolinas..... but a major icing event is liable to occur in the zone between rain and snow in the piedmont of the mid atlantic, perhaps into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i don't see how it will track that far inland when the system that passes tommorow will track way offshore and this big storm looks to be right on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The inland track would of course be the death nail here. As of now I can't get excited thinking it will be primarily rain IMBY but looks good for the Triad and I-85 region. We got to hope for a coastal hugger, small chance, but a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We got to hope for a coastal hugger, small chance, but a chance. Nail the exact spot where the phase will occur and you'll have your track down pat. Of course thats the million dollar question now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB lkes a inland track also, He likes ICE ICE BABY for the piedmont of Carolinas..... but a major icing event is liable to occur in the zone between rain and snow in the piedmont of the mid atlantic, perhaps into the Carolinas. JB showing love to the NE? Again? Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Back to the needle for some in the se. Get out the thread folks.... Nail the exact spot where the phase will occur and you'll have your track down pat. Of course thats the million dollar question now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB showing love to the NE? Again? Shocker. He probably only even mentioned the Carolinas because we (GA and NC/SC) got dumped on and he felt like a dumbass about it. Now he knows to at least mention the Carolinas so he can at least be close to a correct call if the 00z GFS was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I demand you keep drinking all day, as you are the only person from CAE that knows how to read these things. Need someone from our area to post updates since people from ATL, NE GA and NC never do. lol Pour some 5 hour energy in your drink of choice. Haha, yeah I don't think it reached as far South as Aiken & Augusta, but yeah it's around the central Midlands. Lookout, Queen, Stormsfury, and ( i apologize for any names missed! ) talk about CAE a good bit if the threat's for real. It's a tricky setup, and the least little Southern trend of the low pressure itself or a deeper trough (just like the CAE discussion says) happens, then it will mean major changes. Right now I am definitely NOT on board of the GGEM giving us wintry precip at all through here, but it's something to watch for. Getting caught off guard with wintry weather is a bad thing round' these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just checked the 6z GFS and not to be too much of a naysayer but the ensembles are all over the place and at this point the operational GFS looks like the outlier to me in the strength of the solution its showing. It's going to be model madness all weekend long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just checked the 6z GFS and not to be too much of a naysayer but the ensembles are all over the place and at this point the operational GFS looks like the outlier to me in the strength of the solution its showing. It's going to be model madness all weekend long. I'm guessing by 12-00z Sunday will be our best idea with this thing. The ensembles are really cracked out right now and it seems like most the offices are choosing the Euro just because it's being the most steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm guessing by 12-00z Sunday will be our best idea with this thing. The ensembles are really cracked out right now and it seems like most the offices are choosing the Euro just because it's being the most steady. Truthfully I don't think the EURO has been all that steady either. Up until last night it was showing the monday system with so so QPF and had no such gulf low on Tuesday...then all of a sudden its on board like the 0z GFS. In my opinion both of the models have currently flipped....12z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Truthfully I don't think the EURO has been all that steady either. Up until last night it was showing the monday system with so so QPF and had no such gulf low on Tuesday...then all of a sudden its on board like the 0z GFS. In my opinion both of the models have currently flipped....12z runs will be interesting. I haven't been following the models much at all, but I remember reading about that... the QPF was minimal up in NC especially... on the Euro.. but now it's changed. I tend not to pay attention to the QPF numbers until 24-36 hours out.. and I'm sure you understand what I'm saying as the models are usually NEVER right on it when it comes to it... but yeah.. the Euro even gets a little bit scary here in CAE with the 850's crashing to -1. something (forget the exact number.) don't know if precip is over by that point... Surface is too warm but we all know if the rates are heavy enough... something could happen. I've learned if Dallas gets anything.. or Atlanta... we usually get something wintry.. even if it's flurries to start here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its good to see the models start clustering now but they may still move around and shift some. Around 84 hrs theres going to be a strong s/w approaching western Canada, helping to pump up the ridge, which the models respond to by digging the Plains 5H system far to the south, being helped in tandem by the strong confluence in teh Northeast. I don't know if it will head any further south, but it can't get too much further north I don 't think with the strong surface High which stays put a very long time, but the location of the 5H is going to be crucial to surface P-type and surface low track. A track off the Florida Panhandle to GA coast would favor big snow from 85, west, from ATL to GSO, but a more inland track would spell upper warming some and going back and forth between p-types, just like the March 93 storm was for the Upstate and western Piedmont was. However, we have much colder surface air and low dewpoints so the surface temps to start the storm will probably be a little lower, if the storm doesn't take its sweet time moving precip in. The whole interior of the Carolinas would probably be a mixed bag, some snow to start, then 32-33 from CAE to RDU region for much of the storm with a mix of P types. All this is prelminary of course based on a general blend of Euro and GFS track and maintaining surface wedging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z NAM at 84 really pumps up the ridge off CA coast - 582dm. The 0z GFS is probably the farthest south the 500mb low could go, but with such a strong ridge out west, it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its good to see the models start clustering now but they may still move around and shift some. Around 84 hrs theres going to be a strong s/w approaching western Canada, helping to pump up the ridge, which the models respond to by digging the Plains 5H system far to the south, being helped in tandem by the strong confluence in teh Northeast. I don't know if it will head any further south, but it can't get too much further north I don 't think with the strong surface High which stays put a very long time, but the location of the 5H is going to be crucial to surface P-type and surface low track. A track off the Florida Panhandle to GA coast would favor big snow from 85, west, from ATL to GSO, but a more inland track would spell upper warming some and going back and forth between p-types, just like the March 93 storm was for the Upstate and western Piedmont was. However, we have much colder surface air and low dewpoints so the surface temps to start the storm will probably be a little lower, if the storm doesn't take its sweet time moving precip in. The whole interior of the Carolinas would probably be a mixed bag, some snow to start, then 32-33 from CAE to RDU region for much of the storm with a mix of P types. All this is prelminary of course based on a general blend of Euro and GFS track and maintaining surface wedging. JB said the same thing. He said looks to be more inland possibility with major icing here possible, but says a big storm definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 JB said the same thing. He said looks to be more inland possibility with major icing here possible, but says a big storm definitely Kudos to JB for recognizing the pattern (from what I read of him). A strong PNA with digging 5H and enough cold air around, with almost extreme dynamics starting so far south, we don't see this much. Still its far from a done deal, but this could be a big one from Ala, n. GA TN, western Carolinas/VA and up the East Coast. Any shift in track east would put the heavy snow line further east, esp. once the 850 low gets too you, further west would throw the snow line west, but the icy option would probably still exist in the heart of the Carolinas and east. GA with such strong damming shown and northerly surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i don't see how it will track that far inland when the system that passes tommorow will track way offshore and this big storm looks to be right on its heels. Track is a function of how deep this trough digs, it's orientation as it digs (i.e. when does it go neg), and the resultant cutoff, if one does form and where. I would urge caution going forward in regards to extreme scenarios that are starting to be advertised, at-least until we get inside 72hrs or the consensus improves. At this range, a subdued blended approach usually makes for a better forecast, both in terms of impacts on sensible weather and ones hope for SN. There is still sig spread in the ensembles, with the GFS for example split into at-least 3 camps. First camp forms a weak area of lp off the SE coast and takes it up the seaboard, or ots. Second camp is more like the operational run in forming a Gulf low and taking it just inland through the SE, traversing the central or eastern Carolinas. Third camp also forms the Gulf low, but takes it up the spine of the apps. It should be noted, that the op GFS is an extreme outlier in terms of strength compared to its ensemble, which as a mean keeps the week area of lp offshore, which given the spread in terms of timing and track makes sense. The Canadian is similar, with several members showing a track through the Carolinas, and also several offshore. Unlike the GFS however, the Canadian does not have any members with an Apps track, and the operational run is weaker than many of it's members, which fits the model better in the ensemble envelope compared to the Global. I don't have access to the EC members, just the mean, and that not surprisingly is weaker than the op, and indicates a track just off the coast. One Red Flag is the NOGAPS, which has a very progressive bias. The NOGAPS takes a track through SC and NC, with a 995 over Roanoke Rapids at 144hrs, which is slower than the general concsensus, however, could indicate a track even further west than what is currently shown if the bias is correct in this situation. The UKMET shows a more westward track, with the surface reflection over Boone at 144hrs, and this is also a caution signal as the UKMET is sometimes too progressive with systems coming out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Part 2 is now open.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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