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Jan 24-25th threat


Cheeznado

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wow what a bomb they are trending towards. very 96/93ish type of look.

We all bash JB but he said this on his video and even mentioned it in his column yesterday. I told Big Frosty yesterday he is due to get one right let's hope its this one thumbsupsmileyanim.gif. I remember that storm. That was before we had truck plows. Used tractor whole time and that was no fun

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Still using a tractor plow, myself. But no commercial work like you boys!

I all ways thought it would be fun to get in front of a state truck and plow in front of them!laugh.gif

We all bash JB but he said this on his video and even mentioned it in his column yesterday. I told Big Frosty yesterday he is due to get one right let's hope its this one thumbsupsmileyanim.gif. I remember that storm. That was before we had truck plows. Used tractor whole time and that was no fun

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KGSP Morning AFD laying out the landscape for trend of storm. Too early to call where any rain/snow line will be.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL

GFS...ECMWF..AND GEM HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS

RUNS AND NOW SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF

AND TRACKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. AMAZINGLY...THE THREE

MODELS SHOW GREAT CONSISTENCY FOR DAY 5/6 IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING THE

CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. PER HPC GUIDANCE A BLEND OF THE

GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY

FOLLOWS THIS BLEND FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE

PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER

THE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS THEN TRACK THIS CLOSED LOW

FEATURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS BY

WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN

THE ECMWF THOUGH THEY ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE MID

AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BOTH MODELS DEPICT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING

OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM UNDERGOING

RAPID DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN FACT THE CYCLONE WOULD

DEEPEN FROM AROUND 1012MB TUESDAY MORNING...TO AROUND 986MB

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. AS IT

DOES SO...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE

FA WITH PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR ASCENT. AT THIS POINT THE TIMING OF

PRECIP AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. OVERALL

THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND IS MORE

CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE COASTLINE FOR ITS LOW TRACK. I TEND TO

PREFER THIS COAST HUGGING TRACK COMPARED TO THE MORE INLAND TRACK OF

THE ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP

IS MOST LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH THE

UPDATED FORECAST EXTENDS POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY

WITH THE HIGHEST POP PERIOD BETWEEN 00-12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW

DEEPENS AND PUSHES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY...UPSLOPE NW FLOW WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE LEADING TO

SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING PTYPE...ALL THREE MODELS SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF FROZEN OR

FREEZING PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MOSTLY...IF

NOT ALL SNOW...THOUGH NOMOGRAMS SHOW AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS

BEGINNING AS LIQUID AND THEN TRANSITIONING AS COLD AIR IS USHERED IN

AROUND THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS

OF PRECIP GENERATED BY THE MODELS...THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE

HIGH PRECIP RATES ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT PTYPE AND ITS

PLACEMENT. AS THEY CURRENTLY SHOW...MODELS WOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF

INTENSE PRECIP WITH DYNAMIC COOLING LIKELY PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY

WET SNOW ACROSS THE FA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DOES NOT PRESENT A

RIGOROUS EXAMINATION OF PTYPES AND MAINLY SERVES TO UPDATE THE POP

TREND DURING THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES

AS RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS WILL SHED MUCH MORE LIGHT IN THE COMING

DAYS.

&&

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Haha....just had to do that this morning!

I didn't look at any of the 0z modeling prior to bed.....got in here to the weather office and my jaw dropped this morning.

:thumbsup: Matt I just finished watching the blog..... LOVE THE MUSIC! "You dropped a bomb on me.

Classic

Glad it is Friday because I'm going to be glued to the models all weekend

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Haha....just had to do that this morning!

I didn't look at any of the 0z modeling prior to bed.....got in here to the weather office and my jaw dropped this morning.

lmaosmiley.gif NERD ALERT!!!!!

Haha good video, by the way I am glad I did not stay up last night as I wouldn't have gotten any sleep. As Phil pointed out these are great trends gotta see if the 12z follows suit...this has been just crazy model madness.

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Whew, no sleep.. 7am.. still up.. drinking.. lol.. anyway 00z GGEM shows ice during a portion of the event for the CAE area for this system coming up next week. Other guidance is too warm, but something to watch for sure!

snippet from the last cae discussion..

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO

MAKE RUN TO RUN CHANGES...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARD A

CONSENSUS. HAVE TRENDED CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM TOWARD THE ECMWF

WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CURRENTLY THIS

WILL RESULT IN DISORGANIZED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN US ON MONDAY

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. MONDAY

NIGHT AND TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF

AS TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN FL. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW MOVES ALONG

THE SC COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS WHICH CURRENTLY POINTS TO

AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS COULD

CHANGE IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH OR THE

CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPER. HAVE REMAINED

PESSIMISTIC AS MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE TO

KEEP CONFIDENCE LOW.

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Whew, no sleep.. 7am.. still up.. drinking.. lol.. anyway 00z GGEM shows ice during a portion of the event for the CAE area for this system coming up next week. Other guidance is too warm, but something to watch for sure!

snippet from the last cae discussion..

I demand you keep drinking all day, as you are the only person from CAE that knows how to read these things. Need someone from our area to post updates since people from ATL, NE GA and NC never do. lol Pour some 5 hour energy in your drink of choice.

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lmaosmiley.gif NERD ALERT!!!!!

Haha good video, by the way I am glad I did not stay up last night as I wouldn't have gotten any sleep. As Phil pointed out these are great trends gotta see if the 12z follows suit...this has been just crazy model madness.

Burger, Thats perfect.

Matt the video this morning Great job and the music was precise and to the point.

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I have a hunch we are getting ready to head into one of those 3-4 week pattern repeat mini cycles. This is where you like get a winter storm/event on the same day every week for like 3-4 straight weeks. Gonna be interesting to see if this happens. I just have a strong feeling looking at the pattern upcoming and wouldnt be a bit suprised to see this unfold. If we do, then it would put an exclamation point on what has turned out to be an awesome winter. I'm sure their are others on here who have expierenced these novelties or mini pattern repeat cycles in past winters, so its not as uncommon as you think.

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I have a hunch we are getting ready to head into one of those 3-4 week pattern repeat mini cycles. This is where you like get a winter storm/event on the same day every week for like 3-4 straight weeks. Gonna be interesting to see if this happens. I just have a strong feeling looking at the pattern upcoming and wouldnt be a bit suprised to see this unfold. If we do, then it would put an exclamation point on what has turned out to be an awesome winter. I'm sure their are others on here who have expierenced these novelties or mini pattern repeat cycles in past winters, so its not as uncommon as you think.

you need to get into politics, I love the way you talk!!thumbsupsmileyanim.gifSnowman.gifwhistle.gif

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Great disco last night folks.

So GSP like the coastal track instead on the inland runner as shown on the GFS.....Fun days ahead.

BOMB

KGSP Morning AFD laying out the landscape for trend of storm. Too early to call where any rain/snow line will be.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL

GFS...ECMWF..AND GEM HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS

RUNS AND NOW SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF

AND TRACKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. AMAZINGLY...THE THREE

MODELS SHOW GREAT CONSISTENCY FOR DAY 5/6 IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING THE

CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. PER HPC GUIDANCE A BLEND OF THE

GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY

FOLLOWS THIS BLEND FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE

PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER

THE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS THEN TRACK THIS CLOSED LOW

FEATURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS BY

WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN

THE ECMWF THOUGH THEY ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE MID

AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BOTH MODELS DEPICT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING

OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM UNDERGOING

RAPID DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN FACT THE CYCLONE WOULD

DEEPEN FROM AROUND 1012MB TUESDAY MORNING...TO AROUND 986MB

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. AS IT

DOES SO...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE

FA WITH PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR ASCENT. AT THIS POINT THE TIMING OF

PRECIP AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. OVERALL

THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND IS MORE

CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE COASTLINE FOR ITS LOW TRACK. I TEND TO

PREFER THIS COAST HUGGING TRACK COMPARED TO THE MORE INLAND TRACK OF

THE ECMWF. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP

IS MOST LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH THE

UPDATED FORECAST EXTENDS POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY

WITH THE HIGHEST POP PERIOD BETWEEN 00-12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW

DEEPENS AND PUSHES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY...UPSLOPE NW FLOW WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE LEADING TO

SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

CONCERNING PTYPE...ALL THREE MODELS SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF FROZEN OR

FREEZING PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MOSTLY...IF

NOT ALL SNOW...THOUGH NOMOGRAMS SHOW AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS

BEGINNING AS LIQUID AND THEN TRANSITIONING AS COLD AIR IS USHERED IN

AROUND THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS

OF PRECIP GENERATED BY THE MODELS...THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE

HIGH PRECIP RATES ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT PTYPE AND ITS

PLACEMENT. AS THEY CURRENTLY SHOW...MODELS WOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF

INTENSE PRECIP WITH DYNAMIC COOLING LIKELY PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY

WET SNOW ACROSS THE FA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DOES NOT PRESENT A

RIGOROUS EXAMINATION OF PTYPES AND MAINLY SERVES TO UPDATE THE POP

TREND DURING THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES

AS RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS WILL SHED MUCH MORE LIGHT IN THE COMING

DAYS.

&&

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Local meteorologists are still calling for a mix possibly changing to all rain here in the Triad (Winston-Salem/Greensboro). They've also changed it to starting on Tuesday possibly going into Wednesday.Time will only tell. This is going to be an exciting weekend. I love comparing you all to the meteorologists on tv. You all were right on the money when it came to our Christmas storm while the locals were saying 1-2 inches. We ended up with 6-8. :thumbsup:

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Local meteorologists are still calling for a mix possibly changing to all rain here in the Triad (Winston-Salem/Greensboro). They've also changed it to starting on Tuesday possibly going into Wednesday.Time will only tell. This is going to be an exciting weekend. I love comparing you all to the meteorologists on tv. You all were right on the money when it came to our Christmas storm while the locals were saying 1-2 inches. We ended up with 6-8. :thumbsup:

Van Denton said last night at least 2-3 and could be a lot more depending on tract. I met with him on the Monday before the Christmas storm and he said we would get 4-8 he would guess. He said he couldn't say that on tv because if it didn't there would be too many phone calls to the station complaining. He is the best in our area or tv mets. But I take the forum over any tv met in our area

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Van Denton said last night at least 2-3 and could be a lot more depending on tract. I met with him on the Monday before the Christmas storm and he said we would get 4-8 he would guess. He said he couldn't say that on tv because if it didn't there would be too many phone calls to the station complaining. He is the best in our area

I missed his report. I just watched Fox and WXII. They still have a mix. Emily said it could change to all rain but that the storm is still changing and it's something to watch. I hope she's wrong and that we get NO rain!

Are you a meteorologist? I just wonder if they all place bets on storms like some do for the Superbowl. LOL :lol:

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I missed his report. I just watched Fox and WXII. They still have a mix. Emily said it could change to all rain but that the storm is still changing and it's something to watch. I hope she's wrong and that we get NO rain!

Are you a meteorologist? I just wonder if they all place bets on storms like some do for the Superbowl. LOL :lol:

Heck no! Just a landscaper that plows snow. Van talked about it last night at 10:30. Too far out to get excited just yet. But I am a HUGE Steeler fan if you talking Superbowl!

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Good discussion out of RAH this morning as well

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL DETAILS FOR THE POTENTIAL BIG STORM (SNOW

OR RAIN OR BOTH) EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK FOR OUR REGION REMAIN. THE

OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS HANDLED SIMILARLY WITH A MEAN TROUGH

THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THIS

PERIOD. VERY INTERESTINGLY... THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF... GFS... AND

GEM ALL PHASE THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN JET ENERGY WITH A STRONG H5

CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID SOUTH OR TENNESSEE VALLEY TUE...

THEN SWINGING NE OVER NC WEDNESDAY WITH THE H5 CUT OFF FORECAST LOW

OF BETWEEN 5250 AND 5300 DM. IN FACT... IF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS

VERIFY WITH THE CURRENT STRENGTH/TRACKS... CENTRAL NC WOULD LIKELY

SEE HEAVY RAIN IN THE EAST... HEAVY SNOW IN THE FAR NW... AND

MULTIPLE CHANGEOVER P-TYPE IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH QPF OF 1 TO 2 OR

MORE INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THESE RUNS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN

COMPARISON WITH EACH OTHER - QUITE AMAZING GIVEN THIS IS STILL

FORECAST 4-6 DAYS OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PHASING AND COMPLEXITY OF

THE UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY WE CAN NOT SIMPLY

NOT FULLY ACCEPT THESE SOLUTIONS - YET.

THE MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COMING A BIT WESTWARD IN TIME

WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK... WITH THE 12Z (OLD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE)

OFF THE SC/NC COAST... THE LATEST 00Z RUNS (SOME NOW INLAND)...

SUPPORTING THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF A MORE INLAND AND DEEP

SURFACE LOW TRACK. A SLOWING TREND / MORE INLAND LOW TRACK HAS BEEN

NOTED AS WELL GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CUTTING OFF AND DEEPENING OF THE

MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF

THE REGION (FAVORED CLIMO)... RANGING TO A BIG RAIN PRODUCER FOR

OTHERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH OUT 4-5

DAYS AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLIMATOLOGY P-TYPES FOR SIMILAR WINTER

STORM TRACKS/STRENGTHS.

GIVEN MODEL TRENDS... WE MAY HAVE TO SLOW DOWN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP

BEGINNING UNTIL TUESDAY - THEN POTENTIALLY HAVE IT LAST INTO WED

NIGHT. THERE WOULD BE MORE RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND

POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW IN THE NW. HOWEVER... CAUTION IS ADVISED

AS MOST ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE STORM ALONG

THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE... WHILE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COMING WEST

WITH TIME. RIGHT NOW... THIS WOULD STILL BRING THE WINTER STORM

THREAT EASTWARD INTO A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... IF TRENDS

CONTINUE... WE MAY END UP WITH A STORM TRACK ENOUGH INLAND THAT

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES GET ALL RAIN.

ALSO TO BE CONSIDERED... THE PARENT HIGH BEFORE THE STORM IS

FORECAST TO BE IN POSITION TO DELIVER VERY COLD DRY AIR INTO OUR

REGION BEFORE THE STORM DEVELOPS. EVEN IF HYBRID OR NON CLASSICAL

DAMMING DEVELOPS (WHICH APPEARS LIKELY)... WITH A PROGRESSIVE

SURFACE HIGH - THERE WOULD STILL BE THAT INITIAL COLD AIR TO DEAL

WITH. THEN... THE STORM ITSELF WILL GENERATE ITS OWN COLD AIR

(EXAMPLES INCLUDE THE MARCH 93 SUPERSTORM ON THE EXTREME AND THE

CHRISTMAS 2010 SNOW).

THIS STORM HAS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION INCLUDING HELPING

SUPPRESS WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AND BRINGING WINTER STORM

CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT.

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if this storm were to play out and stay off the coast would that put any of us in east nc in the chance for frozen precip? i don't know if this will be anything like the last two storms but us in se nc did pretty well.

Yes it would...How far east depends and the track.

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if the storm tracks to far north it will put alot of people in the southern flow and it would most likely be all rain, but i don't know how the storm will do as far as wrapping cold air around itself. Its a few days out so anything can change as we all know

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