Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro does dig second short into a formidable trough, but a bit farther north of the GFS. First wave outruns the moisture, pretty dry through 0Z Tuesday. Would be some backside snow here maybe a couple inches, the mountains and western NC would get nailed. Big winner eastern 1/3 of TN, and most of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Switches us to heavy snow by 6z wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 QPF wise not nearly as big a deal as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Switches us to heavy snow by 6z wednesday. yeah WNC is heavy snow . the low stalls over virginia it looks like wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All that being said, it's a big snowstorm for Hickory and a significant one as far south as here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Roanoke absolutely get smoked...close to 1.5" QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro does dig second short into a formidable trough, but a bit farther north of the GFS. First wave outruns the moisture, pretty dry through 0Z Tuesday. Would be some backside snow here maybe a couple inches, the mountains and western NC would get nailed. Big winner eastern 1/3 of TN, and most of the Apps. It looks like the damming is quite a bit better on the 00z Euro than the 00z GFS, so folks in central NC might have a lot of icing/sleet issues to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I take North Alabama is out of the picture for this one..?? (on the Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow what a bomb they are trending towards. very 96/93ish type of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Roanoke absolutely get smoked...close to 1.5" QPF as snow. Jesus! I notice how between day 5 and 6 the 500mb low cuts off completely and pretty much slowly moves northward through VA. This really looks a lot like the Blizzard 96's step child. Triple concentric 60m height fields on day 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I tried to build a map to figure out the location of the 850 low on the euro and I cant figure out the right parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow what a bomb they are trending towards. very 96/93ish type of look. Thanks JB!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks JB!! it's the big dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I tried to build a map to figure out the location of the 850 low on the euro and I cant figure out the right parameters. 850mb streamlines give you a good idea where the 850mb circulation center is... its looking like its right over the Apps. in this image, which means temps will likely be more borderline than the GFS, but at the same time the EURO has a stronger high with more damming, so this is likely offsetting it somewhat and allowing for sub freezing 850mb temps somewhat into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol i can't wait to see the jma tonight. it will probably show a nuke going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 850mb streamlines give you a good idea where the 850mb circulation center is... its looking like its right over the Apps. in this image, which means temps will likely be more borderline than the GFS, but at the same time the EURO has a stronger high with more damming, so this is likely offsetting it somewhat and allowing for sub freezing 850mb temps somewhat into NC. amazing what kind of upslope would result on the east side of the apps if that were to occur. look at the wind direction. insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it's the big dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it's the big dog! Someone notify powerstroke he needs bigger plows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol i can't wait to see the jma tonight. it will probably show a nuke going off. when does it come out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Evan though we have 3 models doing the same basic thing, this is still only one run. The UKMET is not as strong, and very few if any of the GFS ensemble members agree. I will be interested to see what the Euro ensembles do, but until I see at least one or two more runs do this, I ain't drinking the Kool-Aid yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One last comment I'd like to make before heading off to bed.... this would have likely been a fluke if the gfs had trended towards this solution and the other models showed completely different solutions. However, for the first time, we have some decent model agreement in regards to the 500mb pattern. In fact, it was the euro that first showed a more consolidated 500mb low feature that would have produced such an amplified solution in the first place. It had been hinting in several runs of a strong digging shortwave trough. Now it seems that the other models are coming around towards this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Evan though we have 3 models doing the same basic thing, this is still only one run. The UKMET is not as strong, and very few if any of the GFS ensemble members agree. I will be interested to see what the Euro ensembles do, but until I see at least one or two more runs do this, I ain't drinking the Kool-Aid yet. I agree with you... this was only one model run. However, I'm thinking that despite these concerns, the 00z model suite struck gold. This is a pretty remarkable trend in the entire 00z gfs ensemble suite towards a more consolidated shortwave (a la the Euro). There are now only two ensemble members that show the low cutting off over Mexico, and there is much less spread in the 5580m heights as compared to the same time interval at 12z. Of course there is still a greater than normal amount of uncertainty on the timing of the shortwave feature, but its looking increasingly likely that we are dealing with one strong shortwave rather than a delayed cutoff feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it's the big dog! Gotta say HKY, you posted earlier today about how this could trend big....nice call based on the 00z runs. What do we need to see to get this to dive even farther SE? I guess more ridging behind it and/or more blocking over the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I take North Alabama is out of the picture for this one..?? (on the Euro) not at all..about .6 qpf..at hsv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles, as I suspected, are not as deep as the Op for the most part, but the Op is not a massive outlier- and as Phil above pointed out with the GFS, there are no members that have the system digging into the SW or Mexico. They all have a trough in the same general area, just mostly not as far south as the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Last post before bed- 06Z GFS is similar to the Euro ensemble mean- close but no cigar here, a dump in eastern TN and the NC mountains and foothills. This has to dig farther south- possible but for now I will go into my Debbie Downer mode for IMBY- but if I was in far NE Georgia and points north I would be pretty excited with the potential. See Y'all this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Much as I'd like our folks to be part of what would be a historic storm, I'd be satisfied with enough rain to get us ahead of the game in what was supposed to be a dry, dry winter. And to see the snow shields up yall's way totally obliterated. Best of luck in this quest, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6z GFS Total Precip for Triad this would be all Frozen. Start as snow, probably switch to sleet, then back to Heavy Snow before ending. This would be a big winter storm no doubt. Total Precip for event; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Great disco last night guys! It's amazing to see the majority of the models all suddently coming to a general agreement. Now hopefully we can get a little south trend over the next few days and not lose our damming so the snow triangle of death wont strike again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Matt I just finished watching the blog..... LOVE THE MUSIC! "You dropped a bomb on me. Classic Glad it is Friday because I'm going to be glued to the models all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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