griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm calling BS on the GFS temperature profile here...that is a CLASSIC 850 position for a dumping for my area Completely agree. 500mb look is a dream scenario for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 850 low goes from JAX to FLO from 126 to 132...I couldnt draw a better scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs ensemble is much weaker obviously than the op still a long way too go with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the 850 low it generates is incredible, even for the formerly super-wild GFS of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Check out this information I got off my sounding: Sounding variables and indices 1000-500 mb thick: 5411.34 m Freezing level: 816.02 mb = 1806.78 m = 5927.68 ft Wetbulb zero: 820.07 mb = 1763.77 m = 5786.56 ft Precipitable water: 0.73 inches Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 97.00 % Est. max temperature: 14.45 C = 58.00 F Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 983.25 mb = 301.54 m = 989.28 ft T: 0.99 C 700-500 lapse rate: 5.98 C/km ThetaE index: 0.00 C Layer 989.1- -0.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 989.07 mb = 254.09 m = 833.61 ft Mean mixing ratio: 4.21 g/kg Conv temperature: 1.17 C = 34.10 F Cap Strength: 12.14 C Lifted Index: 13.82 C Risk: None Lifted Index @300 mb: 19.55 C Lifted Index @700 mb: 8.61 C Showalter Index: 5.91 C Risk: None Total Totals Index: 46.22 C Risk: Scattered moderate thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 23.35 C Cross Totals Index: 22.87 C K Index: 24.52 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 93.21 Risk: None Energy Index: 1.79 Risk: None Real quick, is this a paid service? You don't extract this from bufkit do you? I'm a total newbie when it comes to soundings, but this I can actually understand and I'd like to know where to get it for KRAX or KRDU if available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It looks to me like the Canadian is poised to drop a bomb too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not a severe expert by any means but I bet there'd be a hellacious severe weather outbreak somewhere in the Eastern thirds of the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Real quick, is this a paid service? You don't extract this from bufkit do you? I'm a total newbie when it comes to soundings, but this I can actually understand and I'd like to know where to get it for KRAX or KRDU if available? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So, as of right now, it looks like RDU will be getting cold rain. But if we have more rain with this event than we've seen so far in January, it won't be all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not a severe expert by any means but I bet there'd be a hellacious severe weather outbreak somewhere in the Eastern thirds of the carolinas. Eyewall would be torn in 2 between chasing severe down east, or 2 feet of snow in the hills. I know where id be heading: (west). Gonna be something if the crazy uncle comes on board w/gfs in a few> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think the canadian is going to be too far north for all of us...it has a closed 538DM 500 low over LIT at 120 while the GFS is on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So, as of right now, it looks like RDU will be getting cold rain. But if we have more rain with this event than we've seen so far in January, it won't be all bad. No. The 0z GFS showed that, but almost every other model run over the last few days has disagreed and the GFS's monster inland runner is an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 CMC moves low from south central GA @ 120 to just off Nags Head @ 144 - a great track for much of n GA, upstate SC, and much of inland NC. Difference between GFS and CMC is the CMC does not bomb the low as it moves up the coast. For that reason, it seems the cold air might be able to hang in a little better in CAD regions. With a fairly long duration and no real heavy precip rates, it could mean more icing with the CMC. One trend that is obvious is for a much wetter system. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The canadian actually has a significant ice storm from CAE to the coastal plain of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the colored ggem maps look like some pretty heavy precip amounts but not as much as the gfs lol and colder as well. the ggem is actually west of the gfs with the slp as it moves farther north wrapped up to 980 low inland in the northeast thats pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If some one could answer this question i would really appreciate it. Theres a 0 degree line that shows up near the nc,sc boder on the 138 frame of the GFS that isn't on the 132 frame. Is this due to some kind of cooling from the storm . 132: 138: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Canadian is a bit too far north for much snow in GA/Carolinas except in the mountains- TN/KY/WV get nailed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the colored ggem maps look like some pretty heavy precip amounts but not as much as the gfs lol and colder as well. Yes. I think a classic winter storm for the interior carolinas on the ggem - significant snow in the mountains transitioning to all rain somewhere down east. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 CMC moves low from south central GA @ 120 to just off Nags Head @ 144 - a great track for much of n GA, upstate SC, and much of inland NC. Difference between GFS and CMC is the CMC does not bomb the low as it moves up the coast. For that reason, it seems the cold air might be able to hang in a little better in CAD regions. With a fairly long duration and no real heavy precip rates, it could mean more icing with the CMC. One trend that is obvious is for a much wetter system. TW Thanks for the breakdown: off to bed for a few hours: See if Euro/Ukie get on board with timing (Tuesday-Early WED) perhaps longer duration event 12-18 hours. And trending toward more qpf. Still 4 long + days till Kickoff folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, i dont see much reason to really take the GFS seriously...it's obviously in major disagreement with most of it's members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL. Trends are towards the JMA tonight Anyone got the Ukie? I heard the Nogaps was an inland runner too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is a bit hit for TN - Nashville for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, i dont see much reason to really take the GFS seriously...it's obviously in major disagreement with most of it's members. The take away from the 00z runs is that the system is trending wetter and to some degree warmer. LOTS of ingredients available for this one. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DON'T KNOW IF I AM RIGHT OR IF IT EVEN MATTER BUT ISN'T THE DGEX 18Z TAKING THE SAME TRACK AS THE GFS @108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0Z GGEM hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Let me try to give a slightly more detailed post about the gfs and its potential here on the 00z run. Check out the animation below. First of all... its important to note that this is not the same shortwave feature we have been following for the event early next week. This shortwave comes out and is already in the central plains by 60 hours. It is the shortwave behind this thats over SW Canada that is the play-maker according to the gfs. By 84 hours, we see that the first shortwave is dampening out due to a combination of running into an area of confluence ahead of the 500mb low (which is in great position just to the NE of the United States) and being absorbed into the second shortwave which dove into the Central United States. This is where the fun begins. By 102 hours, the GFS is FINALLY doing what I have been expecting to see the last several days. It has consolidated the shortwave features is had been scattering around the central United States into one organized rapidly amplifying shortwave. You know this shortwave is going to dig deep because the 500mb low that was previously just to the NE of the US has moved out, allowing for the system to have room to deepen. All the vorticity in Texas to the SE of the vortmax also gives it lead-way to dig further south. At 120 hours, our shortwave continues to dig and is now neutrally tilted. Its position and orientation are absolutely critical as to how much precipitation and what type of precipitation we will receive from this system. Unfortunately for folks in E SC/NC the trough decides to go neutrally tilted too soon too far west, with 5580m heights already rising across the eastern parts of these States. However, the further west position of the neutrally tilted system will allow for a Copious amount of moisture advection into the southeast. Regardless of P-Type, this setup is a huge precipitation producer. Note that the next shortwave is already on this systems heals, yet seems to have little effect to the speed and orientation of the first shortwave. I just don't buy that. Either this shortwave is being overdone, or it will force our more southern shortwave to not dig down quite as far, since part of the energy will be picked up closer to the next shortwave. It will be interesting to see how the GFS plays with these features over the next few days. At 138 hours, the storm has completely bombed out. The 850mb and 700mb centers are actually further west than the 500mb feature, and are in the process of becoming vertically aligned. Extremely heavy precipitation has already fallen or is still falling across SC/NC... with the foothills and mountains of NC absolutely getting hammered. Dynamical cooling may help other locations closer to the 850mb low chance over the snow... but we have lost our source of cold air to the northeast, and this will be a heavy wet snowfall. Areas Charlotte eastward are all rain... and very heavy at that. All in all... its a dream senerio for WNC... maybe the far NW SC and NW GA.... I have to think the GFS is too warm with its 850mb temperatures to the NW of the 850mb low on the isobaric maps. However, the gfs does show that the CAD high moves offshore, so we won't have a great source for damming, meaning that we will need dynamical cooling to bring down the freezing levels to the surface. Finally... i'd still like to see the gfs clear up its shortwave features... as it continues to just send one down after the other... no doubt a consequence from an overactive Pacific Jet. The problem is as the features ride along the top part of the pacific ridge, they are very low amplitude and minor differences in the intensity of these low amplitude s/w could spell major chances in the pattern once the features amplify in the wake of the +PNA ridge. Thus, while the gfs solution is a step in the right direction for consolidation, it is by no means the be all end all solution that will prevail. On to the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am repeating this so I can be spared the flames on me, as I am trying to learn here. It looks like the first bit of precip is overruninning moisture and a BL setting up on the ATL coast then a gulf low Miller A bombing out scenario? Wow...if we could just get the temps there. Profiling temps for that kind of setup will be tough until "game time". Something of that nature would surely draw in the cold air and lessen the WAA? The problem is, you can't really take the solution itself seriously b/c of the way it phases, which IMO, is much too slow to what it would be in reality. That basically throws off everything, profile wise, as it let's the high slide out. So I wouldn't worry about precip type or anything like that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow... first the GFS... then the GGEM... now the EURO are all trending towards massive bombs... this is big news! Major Snowstorm for WNC if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 the euro looks pretty good so far through 114 dont know about temps though i believe this thing may bomb out looking at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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