weatherheels Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL It's a cruel cruel solution Frosty. Just wait until 6z, your qpf will be <.10 and it'll be plenty cold enough to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know we're all freaking out here, some in WNC for the good and us in Central NC in a bad way, but for the mets and pros how much water do you think this run holds? It just seems SO drastic. Does it not bring the storm through much later? Out of all the winter storms so far this season I know there is always discrepancy in the models especially this far out, but this is nuts dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I love how we were all like " oh the GFS is shearing it out, little to no QPF." And then it bombs at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 robert this may be the one that you cash in on!!! LOL Just an incredible storm on the GFS tonight. Major neg. tilt in the Southeast, with explosive moisture coming north, and a rapidly deeping cyclone in the Northeast Gulf going off GA coast. The upper levels warm at first over the CArolinas and GA , before going over to snow, and I question the surface temps. Obviously the GFS has run amuck with such an extreme solution. Over 2" of qpf in teh western Carolinas and eastern GA, and still counting. Good night if anything like that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man...I do not know what to make of the GFS tonight. It goes bonkers around day 6, but temp profiles seem out of touch? We have a high sliding out from NE and one coming in at the GL. Thoughts Pro's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I love how we were all like " oh the GFS is shearing it out, little to no QPF." And then it bombs at 120. The monday short wave does get sheared out still. This is the short wave coming in behind it. So nothing has changed much as far as the Monday short wave dieing as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think where Robert and Brandon are is sort of the cut off. Anything east of there is going to be rain, or mostly rain, and anything east of I-77 will certainly be rain. Now can this run hold, we got 100+ hours to go and this is a completely different run than any model is showing. I would sacrifice the measley 3" of snow RDU would get with a weak low off the coast for the 2' of snow in Shelby/Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The monday short wave does get sheared out still. This is the short wave coming in behind it. So nothing has changed much as far as the Monday short wave dieing as it moves east. Oh ok got it! Thanks Dawson. btw 0z GFS brings some pretty cold air down at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Forgot to mention, JB programed the GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The surface winds in GSO CLT and points west are due northerly for the entire event it looks like atleast the heaviest precip when the sfc low is on SAV and going up the coast, so even though aloft the piedmont near CLT may be above snow temps, dynamic cooling on that track in marginal temps, with a bombing low in perfect position would likely be over back to snow quickly in the western halves of the Carolinas, also surface temps likely never would get up to freezing in HKY CLT GSP and points west. Thats not a sounding info, thats logic on this type of storm track, which is likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 TWO INCHES of QPF for HKY all frozen or freezing precip. lol i'll give this about 2% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This literally looks like a carbon copy or the 93 storm track, well actually it's a little more west of 93. Is JB a genius or just lucky. All you have to do is get the total snowfall accum map from that storm. had a 30-40 inch dot in central apps. I was in cullowhee, first and only true blizzard Ive ever been in. Joe would never dig out up in Yancey county if this verified. Speaking of Joe he's already had like 3 seperate 17 inch + storms this year from upslope. Haven't heard from him in a while. Like Brandon said, a bomb is possible, but really alot of options are on the table right now. We can use the rain but iI dont need 2-3 inches with warm 850's and a 1035 hp parked over NY. But seriously with a storm this strong as depicted, the immeadiate NW flank of that LP would be plenty cold enough and getting crushed with heavy snow. Youd eitheir be in snow or rain in a storm like this as there would be a razor thin sleet transition line. Im sure by 6z we will see something totaly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The surface winds in GSO CLT and points west are due northerly for the entire event it looks like atleast the heaviest precip when the sfc low is on SAV and going up the coast, so even though aloft the piedmont near CLT may be above snow temps, dynamic cooling on that track in marginal temps, with a bombing low in perfect position would likely be over back to snow quickly in the western halves of the Carolinas, also surface temps likely never would get up to freezing in HKY CLT GSP and points west. Thats not a sounding info, thats logic on this type of storm track, which is likely wrong. I dont care what the GFS temperature profiles say, Climo 101 for this area says we get crushed with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think where Robert and Brandon are is sort of the cut off. Anything east of there is going to be rain, or mostly rain, and anything east of I-77 will certainly be rain. Now can this run hold, we got 100+ hours to go and this is a completely different run than any model is showing. I would sacrifice the measley 3" of snow RDU would get with a weak low off the coast for the 2' of snow in Shelby/Hickory. Thanks, you can come stay at my house between hickory and Boone if that verified lol but people shouldn't be worrying bc this isn't going to happen so you central NC folks shouldn't be worrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow this is a very encouraging trend towards the huge phased miller a. i am loving the 50/50 and blocking showing up from day 3-5 really an encouraging sign, teleconnection wise. I am repeating this so I can be spared the flames on me, as I am trying to learn here. It looks like the first bit of precip is overruninning moisture and a BL setting up on the ATL coast then a gulf low Miller A bombing out scenario? Wow...if we could just get the temps there. Profiling temps for that kind of setup will be tough until "game time". Something of that nature would surely draw in the cold air and lessen the WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like the Southeast has reveresed roles with the Midatlantic this year. It would be nice to see something like this, a real storm, but like HKY said its 5 to 6 days away yet and things will change. Its been a while since a storm gave snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain and thundersnow and thundersleet to any one location, this could be the one for somebody, if this solution panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am repeating this so I can be spared the flames on me, as I am trying to learn here. It looks like the first bit of precip is overruninning moisture and a BL setting up on the ATL coast then a gulf low Miller A bombing out scenario? Wow...if we could just get the temps there. Profiling temps for that kind of setup will be tough until "game time". Something of that nature would surely draw in the cold air and lessen the WAA? It just depends...if you got the 850 low to track 75 miles further south, there'd definitely be 2 foot of snow from Charlotte to Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 All you have to do is get the total snowfall accum map from that storm. had a 30-40 inch dot in central apps. I was in cullowhee, first and only true blizzard Ive ever been in. Joe would never dig out up in Yancey county if this verified. Speaking of Joe he's already had like 3 seperate 17 inch + storms this year from upslope. Haven't heard from him in a while. Like Brandon said, a bomb is possible, but really alot of options are on the table right now. We can use the rain but iI dont need 2-3 inches with warm 850's and a 1035 hp parked over NY. But seriously with a storm this strong as depicted, the immeadiate NW flank of that LP would be plenty cold enough and getting crushed with heavy snow. Youd eitheir be in snow or rain in a storm like this as there would be a razor thin sleet transition line. Im sure by 6z we will see something totaly different. I was at App during this storm. Well actually I was on spring break and missed it, but was in Winston where we got 6" I think. But spring break lasted an extra week due to this storm and the snow piles from this storm were still in the parking lots when school was finished in mid-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Although I have to say this is hard to take seriously unless we start getting some other models agreeing with this outrageous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 5h low depicted on the GFS is of the exact same strength and position as the March 2009 storm. I'm talking carbon copy. Northern Ga/Upstate SC managed to get a dumping from that storm even though it was March with absolutely no cold air damning beforehand. I see no way that these areas wouldn't get a dumping from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 La Nina, lol. The hits just keep on coming. GFS has 2/3rds of the nation in the deep freeze into Feb. Even comes complete with the obligitory SE winter storm @ 300 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_300.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Check out the position of the 850 low...reminds me of 3/09. Just perfect. This run makes the 3/09 storm look like a play toy... this is more on par with the January 1998 event in terms of low intensity and QPF. Taken literally, RDU would see absolutely no snow with this setup. The WAA would completely overwhelm the eastern 2/3 of the Carolinas. The 850 0C line never even approaches RDU, and with the partials as high as they are I see no way this would be snow for RDU east. Maybe for the CLT area it would be a brief change back to snow, but the cold air is most unimpressive in my view. Agreed generally... this is an extreme setup that would pretty much spell rain for anyone directly over or just east of the 850mb low. IMO this is the best possible solution we could have seen tonight. You can take your chances with a miller a bomb, or we could get nothing if this thing is squashed or sheared out. IMO most of the models are trending towards a cutoff low over the midwest or southeast. All major systems cutoff at some point. The question is where it cuts off, the trough axis, and the timing. THe sooner the better as there will be much more cad. Overall we want to see more trends towards a 50/50 low, as this promotes phasing more than any other feature.It also slow's the HP system from sliding out. Also agreed... while I have little faith that we will see such an extreme solution, its finally nice to see the gfs consolidating features. Still though, there are several shortwaves even at 132hrs, as the pacific jet keeps sending them over one after the other. Thus, I get the feeling we still have a lot of changes to witness yet... I bet the ensembles will be all over the place again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 5h low depicted on the GFS is of the exact same strength and position as the March 2009 storm. I'm talking carbon copy. Northern Ga/Upstate SC managed to get a dumping from that storm even though it was March with absolutely no cold air daming before hand I certainly see no way that these areas wouldn't get a dumping from this storm. Man, thats what I'm seeing here. I couldnt make a better carbon copy of 3/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks, you can come stay at my house between hickory and Boone if that verified lol but people shouldn't be worrying bc this isn't going to happen so you central NC folks shouldn't be worrying Yeah, but the more I think about this it seems if this is going to be a big storm it's going to run inland but if it's weak it could slide off the coast and give central NC 2-3", so I am kind of rooting for the big storm now, be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I dont care what the GFS temperature profiles say, Climo 101 for this area says we get crushed with a track like that. Many others on here have forgotten more than I'll ever know about weather. But You and Robert are dead on. If this literally panned out, that track and strength would pound everyone to the immeadiate left of that track. The dynamical cooling would be unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Check out this information I got off my sounding: Sounding variables and indices 1000-500 mb thick: 5411.34 m Freezing level: 816.02 mb = 1806.78 m = 5927.68 ft Wetbulb zero: 820.07 mb = 1763.77 m = 5786.56 ft Precipitable water: 0.73 inches Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 97.00 % Est. max temperature: 14.45 C = 58.00 F Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 983.25 mb = 301.54 m = 989.28 ft T: 0.99 C 700-500 lapse rate: 5.98 C/km ThetaE index: 0.00 C Layer 989.1- -0.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 989.07 mb = 254.09 m = 833.61 ft Mean mixing ratio: 4.21 g/kg Conv temperature: 1.17 C = 34.10 F Cap Strength: 12.14 C Lifted Index: 13.82 C Risk: None Lifted Index @300 mb: 19.55 C Lifted Index @700 mb: 8.61 C Showalter Index: 5.91 C Risk: None Total Totals Index: 46.22 C Risk: Scattered moderate thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 23.35 C Cross Totals Index: 22.87 C K Index: 24.52 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 93.21 Risk: None Energy Index: 1.79 Risk: None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, but the more I think about this it seems if this is going to be a big storm it's going to run inland but if it's weak it could slide off the coast and give central NC 2-3", so I am kind of rooting for the big storm now, be fun to watch unfold. That's not necessarily true. This could be a big storm for us, too, if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I will take my 5-6" and run. That would give me like 14" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.