Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So the models are 3 to 1 for some winter weather next week. I like those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If the high strenghtens enough , with a thicker layer of cold damming, some areas could end up with more sleet than ZR. The high is shown to be strengthening as it progresses across the Lakes and into CAD position. Models don't usually show CAD very well this far out, and if the 5H setup is real, (with the strong eastern CAN low) then the CAD signature would grow with time. Its really been a while since we've had a good, true hardcore CAD event. Yep....probably Dec 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The strength between the two is mostly irrelevant and it's not a matter of the low "overcoming" the high. For starters, The high is very far to the north so it doesn't take a lot to interrupt the low level flow. Likewise with that low so far to the east, it effects the gradient between the high and our low to the south. Normally when you see a 1036mb high, there is a pretty strong cad signature in the pressure field between it and the low to our south. But look below and you can see a rather defuse and ill defined signature..especially considering the strength of that high. There should be a better defined signature in the pressure field than that but it isn't because the low is causing it. The bottom line is, Either the high needs to come further south or that low needs to be further southwest for us to truly get a classic cad event imo. Thanks Lookout. That makes sense to me. Unfortunately, given all the energy in the flow, I think that low is likely to exist. Hopefully, it will trend a bit farther west or southwest. Also, it seems likely that the high will be pretty far north, as that is where the best confluence sets up. It may trend stronger though. I think there's a decent shot at that...more so than it moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know I know.. But it looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know I know.. But it looks good Blue line right above where I live. Go figure. And since that is NOGAPS, that means it will actually be farther north of that blue line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If the high strenghtens enough , with a thicker layer of cold damming, some areas could end up with more sleet than ZR. The high is shown to be strengthening as it progresses across the Lakes and into CAD position. Models don't usually show CAD very well this far out, and if the 5H setup is real, (with the strong eastern CAN low) then the CAD signature would grow with time. Its really been a while since we've had a good, true hardcore CAD event. this event is looking a bit more interesting (and will look even better) if the CAD signature starts behaving as it should lol. as long as the high stays 1035 or higher my confidence level will build. it would be nice to track one of these again, although i could do with out the damaging ice (lets get snow, then a little ice on top like last time. then we can add another week to our snow on teh ground ) The weather weenie in me is just fascinated by the fact that we are likely going to continue to be cold overall, but by completely different atmosphere means (indices) than the first half of winter. You know you are a weather nerd when stuff like that fascinates you...haha. And yes, Robert, it does seem like forever since we had a true, honest-to-goodness, winter weather-producing CAD event. its been over 5 years here (dec 2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GFS stronger and faster with upper midwest/Great Lakes low ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That low looks like a CAD killer to me ..... 12z GFS stronger and faster with upper midwest/Great Lakes low ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This system (Monday into Tuesday) definitely has my attention. I talked about it a good bit in the video and discussion today, linked in the sig below. Interesting stuff, if the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are right, this has the look of one of our old-school cold air damming winter weather events. Just got done watching, which made me swing by the forum to see if there's a thread on this system and sure enough! Nice videos, you hit about everything all they way to the ridging in the west, good stuff. I'm hoping as we get closer this CAD only amplifies as it looks pretty good already. Should be interesting to watch the next few days for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That low looks like a CAD killer to me ..... that low looks like it's an everyone killer to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 this event is looking a bit more interesting (and will look even better) if the CAD signature starts behaving as it should lol. as long as the high stays 1035 or higher my confidence level will build. it would be nice to track one of these again, although i could do with out the damaging ice (lets get snow, then a little ice on top like last time. then we can add another week to our snow on teh ground ) its been over 5 years here (dec 2005) What happened in Dec 2005? Ice storm? I don't remember that for CLT. I think I remember one limited to the mountains. For Charlotte I think you'd have to go back to 2002. And I'm not sure whether or not that was a CAD event or not. Just lots of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that low looks like it's an everyone killer to me The gfs is a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That low looks like a CAD killer to me ..... Is that a CAD killer which kills the CAD daming signature and moves the cold air out, OR a CAD killer referencing the storm itself being a killer and being a powerful winter event? Not sure which you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well, at least the 12z gfs is rain for the DC crowd too.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Have to see if the other models trend to the GFS. GFS seems all alone at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's crazy is this is a perfect track for a lot of people, northern gulf, to the panhandle of FL, to the southeast GA coast............yet a track of rain. That low is really going to suck if it's as advertised on the 12z gfs. On to the next 12z model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Have to see if the other models trend to the GFS. GFS seems all alone at this moment. Not really, the GGEM/EURO show that low up north which is a ruiner for everyone. This reminds me of winters of the past, where there is always something that puts a kink in things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well, at least the 12z gfs is rain for the DC crowd too.............. Well it seems at 162-168 it seems to hit them with snow, per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's funny how the GFS is the only model that can't seem to show a winter storm this year. Usually, it's the only model showing them. I think we should put this model on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I guess this a miller b and with that northern stream energy not dropping south enough I don't see how this is going to turn out good for anyone down here. Just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not really, the GGEM/EURO show that low up north which is a ruiner for everyone. This reminds me of winters of the past, where there is always something that puts a kink in things. I was going by Matthew East's blog this morning, which said the European, Canadian, and UKMET show something wintry while the GFS shoed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The only thing different I saw with the 12Z GFS was the warm air came in and it changed to rain later i think. It still had the daming signature through some of the system, but as the LOW moved north, it turned to all rain when the cold was pushed out. I can see that happening, it always happens really. Just not cold enough on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It's funny how the GFS is the only model that can't seem to show a winter storm this year. Usually, it's the only model showing them. I think we should put this model on ignore. You should add that to your list of rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Even the gfs ensemble mean looks closer to the foreign models than the gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You should add that to your list of rules. LOL! I might just do that if it doesn't get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It looks to me like the GGEM is setting up for a doozy of a storm at 144hrs. It doesn't look anything like the euro or the GFS. It actually brings the northern stream shortwave through and leaves our southern energy behind to create potential for a monster later on... Edit: Actually I'm wrong in that analysis, it doesn't speed up the northern piece, it actually slows down a northern shortwave out of ahead of our main players which causes the second northern piece to drop down instead of moving due east to towards the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Canadian looks better through hr108. Weaker with initial wave tracking into Texas, but trailing upper wave is diving a little farther west and there is more blocking over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It looks to me like the GGEM is setting up for a doozy of a storm at 144hrs. It doesn't look anything like the euro or the GFS. It actually brings the northern stream shortwave through and leaves our southern energy behind to create potential for a monster later on... I didn't see it past 120 hours yet, but it looked like it minored out the shortwave that the Euro had bringing the storm, and focused on the next s/w. The UKMET is very much like the Euro last night, except not as strong with the eastern Canada low, and allows the surface damming high to start sliding out around 144 hours, but by then the Southeast has had part one of the storm I think, and the next round would be gettting ready to start since the Northern plains low drops due south and begins to draw moisture out of the gulf and over the baroclinic zone. I won't be suprised to see this storm be a good precip maker in the Southeast and southern Plains. If the northern plains low drops just a little more southwest , then I think that would mean more frozen and freezing precip, but as others pointed out the further east it gets the more likely the damming loses its strong grip. IF today's Euro holds on to the strong Canada low, I think it will force everything west and show a major Winter storm for the deep South from Texas to the Carolinas, including much of north half of Dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Its hard to tell off the black and white charts but the Canadian looks sweet. Big high coming down north of Minnesota and a big high in western pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Canadian is all systems go. Much colder look with strong high pressure over the midwest and NE....don't have the low tracking into the midwest warming us up. Strong wave in Texas ready to round the bend and head into the SE. Snow breaking out in N MS / AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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