BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 is ncep acting up for anyone else? very slow loading and have to refresh constantly to get new images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, NWS RAH was indeed leaning at a Miller A potential. Along with JB doing the 93 comparison earleir today. What an extreme Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looking at partial thicknesses and 850 temps that's a massive rain storm, I don't see much in the way of snow. Taken 100% literally the rain would change to heavy snow as the upper tough passed over- the amount would depend on how fast the changeover occurred- the model breaks out over .5 after the 850 temp goes to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sure seems the GFS is off it's rocker tonight. If we were really looking at a storm with that intensity it seems other models would be sniffing out something that well organized as well, and they're not. At least not yet. I'd give this GFS run about 1% of verifying, if that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i think the gfs is probably too slow, but the idea is there. this will be a bomb if we have a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, NWS RAH was indeed leaning at a Miller A potential. Well it's dream miller A run for every west of I-77. Anything east of winston-salem will be nothing but rain, per this run. We need it to shift 100+ miles east, but I think if anything this is going to run inland more, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks to be an all-rain event in central NC, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 now we know is wrong, it puts me and Jeremy and Burger in the 3" amounts. I thought we were tracking a potential winter system not a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its snowing over most of the Carolinas and raining in DC and the MidAtlantic for a good period of time. To start the storm, the damming regions are cold, and who knows how long until they get above freezing but as soon as they do, the snow line is coming in. Wild run for sure. Just to clear things up, you are just talking about Tuesday, right? You are saying snow over most of the Carolinas and other folks are saying just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, of all the solutions I expected tonight, that sure wasnt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Taken 100% literally the rain would change to heavy snow as the upper tough passed over- the amount would depend on how fast the changeover occurred- the model breaks out over .5 after the 850 temp goes to 0. Yep....6z Wed GFS sounding for ATL suggests snow as P-Type taking this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey superjames, I like your cold rain graphic. I'm betting you got that from the State Climate Office of NC's website, because I made that when I designed all of the winter weather pages there. I actually had to merge a couple of the other images together, because they didn't have a cold rain graphic! Haha, yeah that is where I got it from. Cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Along with JB doing the 93 comparison earleir today. What an extreme Run This literally looks like a carbon copy or the 93 storm track, well actually it's a little more west of 93. Is JB a genius or just lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm calling BS on the GFS temperature profile here...that is a CLASSIC 850 position for a dumping for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I thought we were tracking a potential winter system not a hurricane. haha. I'd never want 3" of winter equivalent precip I don't think. Not saying this run gives us that, but with the strong dammng and dry air and how hard it is to get rid of low level cold air, it would be scary if the GFS was close to accurate. Right now that looks extreme. That would be major snowfall somewhere in the Apps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just to clear things up, you are just talking about Tuesday, right? You are saying snow over most of the Carolinas and other folks are saying just rain. 99.9% rain, it might start as a little something frozen but it would be a monsoon rainstorm in RDU/GSO/INT/CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh my, Central NC getting the stinking rain. I just don't understand how this run changed so drastically compared to any of the prior runs. So there is more of a chance it runs MORE inland than farther toward/off the coast? That sounds no good, no good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 haha. I'd never want 3" of winter equivalent precip I don't think. Not saying this run gives us that, but with the strong dammng and dry air and how hard it is to get rid of low level cold air, it would be scary if the GFS was close to accurate. Right now that looks extreme. That would be major snowfall somewhere in the Apps though. Check out the position of the 850 low...reminds me of 3/09. Just perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Taken 100% literally the rain would change to heavy snow as the upper tough passed over- the amount would depend on how fast the changeover occurred- the model breaks out over .5 after the 850 temp goes to 0. Yep....6z Wed GFS sounding for ATL suggests snow as P-Type taking this run verbatim. I was wondering about that at 132. Thanks for the p-type info. Gonna be a lot of changes in the models over the next few days. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 snorkel please. Psh, umm snow blower and snow plow plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Insane QPF this run, mountains and foothills would be buried for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 IMO this is the best possible solution we could have seen tonight. You can take your chances with a miller a bomb, or we could get nothing if this thing is squashed or sheared out. IMO most of the models are trending towards a cutoff low over the midwest or southeast. All major systems cutoff at some point. The question is where it cuts off, the trough axis, and the timing. THe sooner the better as there will be much more cad. Overall we want to see more trends towards a 50/50 low, as this promotes phasing more than any other feature.It also slow's the HP system from sliding out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Taken literally, RDU would see absolutely no snow with this setup. The WAA would completely overwhelm the eastern 2/3 of the Carolinas. The 850 0C line never even approaches RDU, and with the partials as high as they are I see no way this would be snow for RDU east. Maybe for the CLT area it would be a brief change back to snow, but the cold air is most unimpressive in my view. Well, we still have time. I just don't see how some say it is snow for most of the Carolinas then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm calling BS on the GFS temperature profile here...that is a CLASSIC 850 position for a dumping for my area thats one heck of an 850 low ...dont know if ever had one that strong near us. Obviously the Apps and Foothills are getting crushed with that track for sure, at much more than an inch an hour most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1.47" of frozen or freezing precip in HKY by 12z wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Taken literally, RDU would see absolutely no snow with this setup. The WAA would completely overwhelm the eastern 2/3 of the Carolinas. The 850 0C line never even approaches RDU, and with the partials as high as they are I see no way this would be snow for RDU east. Maybe for the CLT area it would be a brief change back to snow, but the cold air is most unimpressive in my view. For us I would think we want a weaker storm that heads NE instead of this super bomb as that is coming inland like this run shows. I guess it would be fun to watch the foothills and have mountains have a 93 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just an incredible storm on the GFS tonight. Major neg. tilt in the Southeast, with explosive moisture coming north, and a rapidly deeping cyclone in the Northeast Gulf going off GA coast. The upper levels warm at first over the CArolinas and GA , before going over to snow, and I question the surface temps. Obviously the GFS has run amuck with such an extreme solution. Over 2" of qpf in teh western Carolinas and eastern GA, and still counting. Good night if anything like that happened. JESUS... this is a January 27th, 1998 redux for WNC... very heavy wet snowfall. The 850mb temps won't be accurate if we get the amount of QPF progged on the gfs. Inland crawling bomb up I-95...Big old rainstorm for central NC, piedmont. Going to crush DC and points north. Yea this is not encouraging for folks in central and east NC. This run amplifies the system far too much to allow folks east of WNC to get anything other than rain. The CAD high has moved offshore by this point, so there is nothing to keep the low from riding up the coast. now we know is wrong, it puts me and Jeremy and Burger in the 3" amounts. Yea such an extreme solution should be taken with extreme caution... although considering that several ensemble members were showing such a solution, I knew it was on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 TWO INCHES of QPF for HKY all frozen or freezing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, we still have time. I just don't see how some say it is snow for most of the Carolinas then. We talked about this on the banter thread, you have to look at who is posting the updates, the only run this is good for is the mountains and foothills (Western Carolinas), anything from Winston-Salem to the east would be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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