BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No- if you are referring to the Euro ensembles, that is not what I saw at all. Yeah, I meant Euro ensembles. he mentioned they were wetter, slower and colder. He said something about a 40 hour duration storm from NC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I agree with you. Also been around since 01 and I can tell you Jeremy knows his stuff. I have been around since 2002 (WWB) and on and I do not know jack sheat! a lot of that is my fault for not taking time to really nail the basics and the other for just letting the Pro's speak it and me finding out about general specifics, etc.! Jerms is DA MAN! I even bumped into him at his work one time. SMALL WORLD!! I have turned a new leaf and decided to saddle up, learn more and try to contribute more, instead of pansy commentary. My big thing is I can see a setup on the maps, but cannot coin the terms needed to relay what I am seeing. Sorry for OT y'all! Now do you have soundings yet QC? (wink) EDITED for missed letters = Thanks a lot iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, I meant Euro ensembles. he mentioned they were wetter, slower and colder. He said something about a 40 hour duration storm from NC north. Here is the 12z euro ensemble: Starts in GOM on Tuesday with good CAD and 24 hours latter riding up coast probably deepining. Cant tell anything about qpf Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Doesn't look very deep though----only 1009 off Va capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Doesn't look very deep though----only 1009 off Va capes I was thinking same thing: Here is Tuesday and how it starts. CAD Looks awesome, and im guessing our Low is starting in the GOM, perhaps causing some overruning, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0Z GFS looks really cold here Saturday. 0 line down to JAX at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And at 48 it's down to Orlando. Wow. Maybe I am just amazed because I have not been paying attention to temp profiles until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And at 48 it's down to Orlando. Wow. Maybe I am just amazed because I have not been paying attention to temp profiles until now. Looks like it's starting to warm up by 78 so we'll definitely still need a CAD solution....All that cold air down to FL for no reason other than to cool down the ground a bit from that 60 degree scorcher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS is shredding the first s/w coming into Tenn. on Sunday night and by 84 hours whats left of it is in NC, hardly any precip at all, maybe .01" in some sections. Not even a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The GFS is shredding the first s/w coming into Tenn. on Sunday night and by 84 hours whats left of it is in NC, hardly any precip at all, maybe .01" in some sections. Not even a tenth. wow yeah I noticed that L over NC and I was like "what the heck is that?"......our storm... Wonder if it will show anything Mon/Tues...light event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at 96 it does resemble the Euro with the 5H cutoff in Mo/Iowa area, with more energy wrapping in around it, but so far theres no moisture, save for trace amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, I meant Euro ensembles. he mentioned they were wetter, slower and colder. He said something about a 40 hour duration storm from NC north. These things never last that long, though. I can recall several examples in the last couple years. Usually, we end up getting too warm in the dendric growth region and Bergeron goes poof. If I recall, that's basically what happened with our last storm which changed everyone over to nasty freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Atleast its not taking the next wave to Tijiuana. It sharpens it up along the Miss. Valley at 108 and sends moisture surging north into the Southeast, with strong damming. Just seen the 114 and its going neutral tilt, maybe negative tilt in the Deep South. This could get icy with the damming. But so far the snow line is still in n. GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ooops. Bomb going off at 120 in the Northeast Gulf. Another run, and another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ooops. Bomb going off at 120 in the Northeast Gulf. Another run, and another solution. Inland runner, going to suck for central NC/piedmont, should be good for the mtns/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS really does a number with the second trough/short wave showing a massive snow storm in ATL-, but this yet another much different solution that I have a very hard time buying until we see some sort of consistency, which we are not close to having yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, so the EURO has an earlier solution and the GFS has the storm what? 12-24hrs later?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just an incredible storm on the GFS tonight. Major neg. tilt in the Southeast, with explosive moisture coming north, and a rapidly deeping cyclone in the Northeast Gulf going off GA coast. The upper levels warm at first over the CArolinas and GA , before going over to snow, and I question the surface temps. Obviously the GFS has run amuck with such an extreme solution. Over 2" of qpf in teh western Carolinas and eastern GA, and still counting. Good night if anything like that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow this is a very encouraging trend towards the huge phased miller a. i am loving the 50/50 and blocking showing up from day 3-5 really an encouraging sign, teleconnection wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At the GFS. What a storm that would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow, so the EURO has an earlier solution and the GFS has the storm what? 12-24hrs later?? The models have been literally all over Monday and Tuesday...very annoying, I know...but yes...GFS and Euro have been way off..as well as the ggem, it had a later solution than the Euro I believe...and by later I mean 12 hours+...someone correct me if I'm wrong as this is by memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Inland crawling bomb up I-95...Big old rainstorm for central NC, piedmont. Going to crush DC and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 now we know is wrong, it puts me and Jeremy and Burger in the 3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, NWS RAH was indeed leaning at a Miller A potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like the snow line is right around 40: Date: 5 day AVN valid 0Z WED 26 JAN 11 Station: KHKY Latitude: 35.73 Longitude: -81.38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 173 SFC 971 412 0.3 -0.3 96 0.6 0.0 38 7 275.8 276.4 274.7 286.3 3.86 2 950 585 -0.3 -1.0 95 0.7 -0.6 54 13 276.9 277.5 275.2 287.2 3.75 3 900 1018 0.2 -0.3 97 0.5 0.0 95 12 281.7 282.4 278.3 293.4 4.17 4 850 1477 1.0 0.6 98 0.4 0.8 147 12 287.2 288.0 281.5 300.5 4.71 5 800 1963 -1.5 -1.7 98 0.2 -1.6 180 14 289.6 290.3 282.1 301.8 4.22 6 750 2475 -4.2 -4.9 95 0.7 -4.5 204 15 292.0 292.6 282.3 302.4 3.54 7 700 3016 -7.2 -7.6 97 0.4 -7.4 212 21 294.5 295.1 282.9 303.7 3.08 8 650 3591 -10.3 -10.6 98 0.3 -10.4 210 27 297.3 297.8 283.5 305.2 2.62 9 600 4203 -13.5 -13.9 96 0.4 -13.6 204 32 300.5 300.9 284.2 307.2 2.17 10 550 4860 -18.0 -18.4 97 0.4 -18.1 214 41 302.7 303.0 284.5 307.9 1.63 11 500 5566 -22.2 -22.5 97 0.3 -22.2 225 55 306.0 306.3 285.4 310.1 1.26 12 450 6334 -26.6 -26.9 97 0.3 -26.6 216 66 309.9 310.0 286.4 313.0 0.94 13 400 7174 -32.4 -32.7 97 0.3 -32.4 216 71 312.9 313.0 287.1 315.0 0.61 14 350 8100 -40.6 -40.9 98 0.2 -40.6 221 83 313.9 314.0 287.1 315.0 0.31 15 300 9131 -47.7 -48.1 96 0.4 -47.8 227 119 318.1 318.1 288.3 318.7 0.16 16 250 10319 -52.7 -56.2 65 3.5 -52.8 232 129 327.7 327.8 291.2 328.0 0.08 17 200 11758 -52.3 -65.2 20 12.9 -52.6 240 113 349.9 350.0 296.7 350.1 0.03 18 150 13601 -56.7 -70.7 16 14.0 -57.0 241 88 372.3 372.3 301.0 372.4 0.02 19 100 16138 -62.0 -80.4 7 18.4 -62.2 241 68 407.9 407.9 306.3 408.0 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 now we know is wrong, it puts me and Jeremy and Burger in the 3" amounts. snorkel please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 is ncep acting up for anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LOL, check out the cold air trapped in SC....I've never seen this, can a met explain? Could this happen or is it clearly a model error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its snowing over most of the Carolinas and raining in DC and the MidAtlantic for a good period of time. To start the storm, the damming regions are cold, and who knows how long until they get above freezing but as soon as they do, the snow line is coming in. Wild run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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