FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 2004 was golden. Snowed all day and temps never got above 30 in CLT. Just beautiful. I don't mind it falling in the day, I prefer it, because frankly I have a hard time staying awake late at night to go look at it!! Just have to deal with marginal temps. Right now it looks ok I guess, depending on which model you believe. Again I'm taking a wait and see approach. I still lean on this being pretty minor; both temp wise and qpf. I would LOVE a surprise. Maybe Foothills can bring it home for us. well I haven't been sick in a while, but now I'm feeling pretty rough, and am headed to bed shortly I think. Usually takes a big bug to get me, so when it does, I'm out a while, this also means big snow coming up. Hopefully be better to enjoy the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Finally got power back on here in south Shelby after being in the dark a few hours. I haven't looked much at anything but did glance at the Euro, and it looks like its 5H becomes cut off, after sending a spoke our way. If the initial s/w is stronger it would be a bigger snow, in fact a very strong winter storm, but we can't say that yet with so much discrepancy on the models. I do think the temps are plenty cold through the Carolinas and only warm aloft in eastern sections to ATL around the end of the first event, the strong high should keep a lot of folks subfreezing for temps at the surface and toward I-40 probably an all snow event, unless the initial s/w gets much stronger. This probably will trend wetter, as the setup is pretty good so far, and its at that time range the models start honing in. Robert, I know a guy with a brand new 14kw genset looking for a home. PM me if your interested. Runs on propane have one jut like it and runs the house nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hope it's not the same nasty cold I have --- haven't sneezed so much in my life. By the way, my big conference was postponed to the week of Jan. 31 -- how are the Euro 14 days maps looking? well I haven't been sick in a while, but now I'm feeling pretty rough, and am headed to bed shortly I think. Usually takes a big bug to get me, so when it does, I'm out a while, this also means big snow coming up. Hopefully be better to enjoy the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hope it's not the same nasty cold I have --- haven't sneezed so much in my life. By the way, my big conference was postponed to the week of Jan. 31 -- how are the Euro 14 days maps looking? everybody around here is sick since Christmas so I'm fortunate not to have caught anything, but now I have something. I was cutting drywall 2 nights ago and breathed in a ton of dust, no mask, big mistake. Not sure if it is that or a virus, makes you feel bad either way. I haven't seen anything but the Euro to day 10. I'll take a look and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well I haven't been sick in a while, but now I'm feeling pretty rough, and am headed to bed shortly I think. Usually takes a big bug to get me, so when it does, I'm out a while, this also means big snow coming up. Hopefully be better to enjoy the storm! Let me know what you need my sister in law works in pharmacy I can get my favorite weatherman some stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Let me know what you need my sister in law works in pharmacy I can get my favorite weatherman some stuff. If you need a deliveryman let me know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you need a deliveryman let me know... I will do what it takes to get him better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh -- I was just joking about the Euro -- didn't even know there was a 14-day!!! GET WELL!! everybody around here is sick since Christmas so I'm fortunate not to have caught anything, but now I have something. I was cutting drywall 2 nights ago and breathed in a ton of dust, no mask, big mistake. Not sure if it is that or a virus, makes you feel bad either way. I haven't seen anything but the Euro to day 10. I'll take a look and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Let me know what you need my sister in law works in pharmacy I can get my favorite weatherman some stuff. If you need a deliveryman let me know... I will do what it takes to get him better Wow thanks! See if I can push more snow up your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Oh -- I was just joking about the Euro -- didn't even know there was a 14-day!!! GET WELL!! LOL I thought you meant weeklies anyway. Going to get some antihistamines now. This postnasal drip and sore throat is for the birds.Hope you get fully recovered too (sorry about o/t). The NAM is way up there at 84, but the Euro looked like it also jogged more toward the plains, as opposed to the Southwest so much. That may be a trend coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow thanks! See if I can push more snow up your way she is single too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Kirk Mellish has a great post regarding what an enigma this winter has been so far and points out possible reasons as to why this winter is not close to what was expected of this winter. This winter has a mind of its own and totally disregards what its suppose to be Here, we have coined this pattern *El-Paso Frustrante Nino*...makes it's own decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The models are really really struggling with this storm at this point. A lot of them are elongating the trough/vorticity coming into the northwest and resulting into some wild solutions. Strung out troughs, a cutoff low over mexico, several surface low pressures, etc. At this point, you almost have to think the most likely scenario is a phase and cutoff of the upper low into the TN or Ohio Valley. For the southeast, it would be much better if it was the TN Valley, as it would result in a huge amount of GOM moisture. I think it's likely we see these two s/w's become less separated and more as part of a large trough axis diving into the CONUS. You can look back at jan 96 for something similar, even though this will likely be nothing close to that. Something similar to the below, top left panel. Notice the elongated vorticity from Montana into Texas. Also there is no doubt this will be a miller a/b hybrid. It's going to feature a weak low in the ohio valley and another stronger low over the gulf/atlantic coastline. The low will slowly strengthen the further in time you go. Only thing I'll say is the potential remains for something big to develop, especially for interior sections of NC/NW SC/N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree HKY looks like the Euro wants to cutoff the 5H over the Midwest of Miss. Valley maybe Ky or Ohio region, which would bode wetter for us, I think. Still many twists and turns coming up. I'd prefer more spacing though, with a stronger lead system for an all snow event, but the way this may play out is the decaying one, followed by another event, even though its not shown yet. If the latter works out, then the other side of the Apps would get hit hard with snow (Tenn Valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That sounds like a great idea. If you could go to SV and pay for access to the euro maps and post qpf totals for all major cities I would appreciate it. Thanks again! Can we just leave the poor guy (Brick) alone, rather than degrading him all the time? There's no need for all the sarcasm. If you don't like the posts, just ignore them, but there's no need to get nasty. Back to the topic at hand, the 18Z NAM does have the surface low farther south at hour 78 (over St. Louis, MO) than it did at hour 84 on the 12Z NAM (on the IA-MO border). So, it is coming further south, but it does seem interesting that it then moves basically due east into IN over the next six hours. At the same time, it begins to develop a bit of precip in east TX, so that is probably the precursor to the second developing low in the GOM. As Hky_Wx said, this new low has a good chance to be dominant, but it appears that we're going to keep that low in the OH valley too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 18z GFS is going to be interesting, at 72 has the southern piece of energy hanging back all the way to the pacific with the center in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree HKY looks like the Euro wants to cutoff the 5H over the Midwest of Miss. Valley maybe Ky or Ohio region, which would bode wetter for us, I think. Still many twists and turns coming up. I'd prefer more spacing though, with a stronger lead system for an all snow event, but the way this may play out is the decaying one, followed by another event, even though its not shown yet. If the latter works out, then the other side of the Apps would get hit hard with snow (Tenn Valley) The one thing we have going for us this go around is the PNA being in a much better position. I think that bodes well for phasing, or at least the option of these two waves diving a bit further south than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well I haven't been sick in a while, but now I'm feeling pretty rough, and am headed to bed shortly I think. Usually takes a big bug to get me, so when it does, I'm out a while, this also means big snow coming up. Hopefully be better to enjoy the storm! Unacceptable!! How are we supposed to understand all about the Omegas, 5Hs, Vortexes, etc, etc. These are critical models runs man! Without you us weenies will be cliff diving for sure through the weekend. Nah, go to bed, get better. Jack, honey and lemon. We'll save our ace in the hole for early February!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The one thing we have going for us this go around is the PNA being in a much better position. I think that bodes well for phasing, or at least the option of these two waves diving a bit further south than currently modeled. I agree, the GFS now 18z is a little further north and east with the initial wave, but my guess is that it and NAM are too far north and will shift south later. Thanks to the strong high and confluence over the Lakes and Northeast. This could actually trend into quite a Winter storm later on with the strong diving 2nd wave, as I think both go further south than shown on any models. Usually with ne Confluence , a bias in the models is too far north at this time range, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can we just leave the poor guy (Brick) alone, rather than degrading him all the time? There's no need for all the sarcasm. If you don't like the posts, just ignore them, but there's no need to get nasty. Back to the topic at hand, the 18Z NAM does have the surface low farther south at hour 78 (over St. Louis, MO) than it did at hour 84 on the 12Z NAM (on the IA-MO border). So, it is coming further south, but it does seem interesting that it then moves basically due east into IN over the next six hours. At the same time, it begins to develop a bit of precip in east TX, so that is probably the precursor to the second developing low in the GOM. As Hky_Wx said, this new low has a good chance to be dominant, but it appears that we're going to keep that low in the OH valley too. This is not only a Brick thing. I would of said the same thing to anybody. You don't come in here making comments about how much easier it would be if someone would go through and list all the qpf totals for all the major cities. A...people pay for that information, if you want it go pay for it yourself and B...It's not that easy to go through and get totals for all major cities. It takes some time and work to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the positioning of the PNA ridge is in a more "classic" position if there is a such thing lol, than the christmas day storm as it was a little east of the wanted postioning and like hky said it would seem that it would favor a farther south track of the two s/w which would favor the Tenn. Valley and WNC the western upstate and north georgia this thing could become something bigger that what is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just has no clue what to do w/ those two waves. It's going to be the weekend before this one is sorted out. I think the ukmet/euro are probably going to be a lot more reliable in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just has no clue what to do w/ those two waves. It's going to be the weekend before this one is sorted out. I think the ukmet/euro are probably going to be a lot more reliable in this situation. Agreed... Beyond 72 hours, the gfs is just totally clueless. At least the Euro is staying somewhat consistent. I'll broadcast just a simple example with spegetti plots... at 3 days, the gfs ensembles are in pretty good agreement, but shortly afterwards it just loses it. By Day 4, there is already major disagreement about where/if/how strong the northern stream shortwave cuts off from the flow. Its gets down right LOL worthy at day 5... the 5580m heights could be anywhere from east Mexico to Missouri. Basically... any sort of solution is still on the table, from a non-event to something just as intense as the January 10th-11th event. However, I don't think we will know just which side of the spectrum this system will fall until later this weekend, in about 2 days time. The good news is that both the GFS and the EURO have trended towards a more amplified northern stream trough... one that should at least allow partial CAD for the first event early next week. If this does end up being a two parter like the 12z gfs was suggesting, the second event will also likely be cold enough for some wintry precipitation across the Southeast, as long as it doesn't trend too amplified. However, I am still favoring a solution similar to EURO right now since it just appears the GFS is still keeping the shortwaves too spread out given the amplified ridge out west and the fact the shortwaves are close enough to allow at least some interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is not only a Brick thing. I would of said the same thing to anybody. You don't come in here making comments about how much easier it would be if someone would go through and list all the qpf totals for all the major cities. A...people pay for that information, if you want it go pay for it yourself and B...It's not that easy to go through and get totals for all major cities. It takes some time and work to do that. not to mention if people are that concerned about the gpf for their back yard that they could subscribe and read the model for themselves, or read the other posts and sort of figure out from whats around them to what they may get. the early week storm is sort of a nail biter right now with so many different outputs from the models. at least we are getting closer in time so hopefully at least some consensus will start with some of the models in the next two days or so. to see this much spread right now and different solutions with the 12z, 18z runs etc. i do not envy the pro mets who are having to put their forecasts out in the public phil - that last plot is a lol image. which goes back to how in the world do the pro mets make a forecast after about 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not to mention if people are that concerned about the gpf for their back yard that they could subscribe and read the model for themselves, or read the other posts and sort of figure out from whats around them to what they may get. the early week storm is sort of a nail biter right now with so many different outputs from the models. at least we are getting closer in time so hopefully at least some consensus will start with some of the models in the next two days or so. to see this much spread right now and different solutions with the 12z, 18z runs etc. i do not envy the pro mets who are having to put their forecasts out in the public phil - that last plot is a lol image. which goes back to how in the world do the pro mets make a forecast after about 3 days out I agree...QPF totals shouldn't even be mentioned at this point...honestly it seems each storm gets harder and harder to forecast this season. I wonder what later potential after next weeks event will show? This winter's theme is NOWCAST for sure. Timing is very important with this setup and we won't figure that out until this weekend (I hope). I'm sure we're all hoping for a Monday event, I'm not going to get excited though...need more agreement for my inner weenie to go haywire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DT says the euro ensembles are colder/snowier than the OP and would imply a major snow event across at least most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DT says the euro ensembles are colder/snowier than the OP and would imply a major snow event across at least most of NC. Read that on FB as well. Do you have access to see how far the precip shield extends west on the ensemble? Does AccuPro have that feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DT says the euro ensembles are colder/snowier than the OP and would imply a major snow event across at least most of NC. Surprised Cheez hasn't mentioned. What a cluster this storm is those spaghetti plots Phil posted are just out of control . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Read that on FB as well. Do you have access to see how far the precip shield extends west on the ensemble? Does AccuPro have that feature? No it only has the op info. You can find the mean on allans site. I know cheez can see individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Read that on FB as well. Do you have access to see how far the precip shield extends west on the ensemble? Does AccuPro have that feature? I don't have any access to those so I have no clue. Perhaps cheeznado can clue us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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