Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree. Good writeup for them. They've also already added snow chances to their entire CWA, it appears. They're normally a conservative NWS office, so perhaps this is a good sign. http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off Yes, they sound more bullish with this than usual. They actually sound more confident we will see something here than most folks on the board, and it is usually the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Bring on "das boot" so we can get some Miller A action. It seems like these Miller Bs, transferring energy, robbing energy things are taking away our BOMBs. I hope the GFS is right and the Tuesday system is the blip and the Thursday/Friday is the beast. I agree with Burger in that if this thing takes place during the day, it's not going to be cold enough to do anything anyway. It'll be a grassy surface special, with melting as it falls. Hopefully that blocking pattern with a +PNA will show up. What time frame was that boot model for on the EURO?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GSP is biting at the system next week also. Leaning EURO UKMET/CMC and notes that the GFS is different than the others I listed. Light qpf, but is noted that it is way to early to pin that part down. Snow-Sleet-FR for most with poss mainly snow event mountain and western Foothills Counties. Good read. GSP AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Btw, I'll will be MIA for the next few days so you kids be good now Would it be possible to appoint Queen and Iso moderator status while you are gone. Some of those yankee mods rubbed a lot of people the wrong way during the last storm while you were gone. Midlo seems alright though whenever he comes around though. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Bring on "das boot" so we can get some Miller A action. It seems like these Miller Bs, transferring energy, robbing energy things are taking away our BOMBs. I hope the GFS is right and the Tuesday system is the blip and the Thursday/Friday is the beast. I agree with Burger in that if this thing takes place during the day, it's not going to be cold enough to do anything anyway. It'll be a grassy surface special, with melting as it falls. Hopefully that blocking pattern with a +PNA will show up. What time frame was that boot model for on the EURO?? You do know that the GFS shows a temp of 35 with a dewpoint of 4 on Saturday at 1PM for CLT. The ground is not exactly going to be toasty come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 EURO gives me .29 all snow. I'll take it GFS gives me .17 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You do know that the GFS shows a temp of 35 with a dewpoint of 4 on Saturday at 1PM for CLT. The ground is not exactly going to be toasty come Monday. According to this, soil temperatures are actually pretty toasty at the moment. I really don't know how accurate it is, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 According to this, soil temperatures are actually pretty toasty at the moment. I really don't know how accurate it is, though. It seems kind of warm to me, though. Well atleast Sat/Sun/Mon will be highs in the 30's and lows in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Could someone give me the euro qpf amount for GSO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Could someone give me the euro qpf amount for GSO ? Here you go .39 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 thanks frosty sounds pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Kirk Mellish has a great post regarding what an enigma this winter has been so far and points out possible reasons as to why this winter is not close to what was expected of this winter. This winter has a mind of its own and totally disregards what its suppose to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You do know that the GFS shows a temp of 35 with a dewpoint of 4 on Saturday at 1PM for CLT. The ground is not exactly going to be toasty come Monday. True, but if the surface temps are not right during the storm (30 or below), I think there will be a good amount of melting during the day. Especially on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL at 18z NAM. At 84 hours, has our Gulf Low near ....Terra Haute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Could someone give me the euro qpf amount for GSO ? Maybe if someone would be kind enough to post the totals for all the major SE cities we would not have a ton of IMBY posts asking about it. I think this has been done in the past and is very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 KSIF (Shiloh Airport) would be closer to Reidsville I would think. It shows .37" all snow so pretty much the same output. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LOL at 18z NAM. At 84 hours, has our Gulf Low near ....Terra Haute. What's 1,000 mi. among friends?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 True, but if the surface temps are not right during the storm (30 or below), I think there will be a good amount of melting during the day. Especially on roads. Ground temps should be chilly, and as it stands now, temps should be a little below freezing once we moisten the air...but I'm in full agreement that overnight snow accumulates much more efficiently than daytime snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ground temps should be chilly, and as it stands now, temps should be a little below freezing once we moisten the air...but I'm in full agreement that overnight snow accumulates much more efficiently than daytime snow. There's always exceptions to the rule(2/26/04) but I'd almost always rather the storm hit at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Please keep the incessant whining over in the banter thread. Thanks. And can we get a 2nd to the motion on the floor??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow amazing model reversal this afternoon! Went to school this morning not expecting much. But now it seems a solid 1-3" is on the table! Crazy! Hope this trends even more in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ground temps should be chilly, and as it stands now, temps should be a little below freezing once we moisten the air...but I'm in full agreement that overnight snow accumulates much more efficiently than daytime snow. For our area I'm actually more worried about 850 temps...more worried about it mixing with sleet or just going to a really cold rain per the Euro. I prefer snow in the day if it can stick, but heck even if it doesn't stick it's better to look at then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Maybe if someone would be kind enough to post the totals for all the major SE cities we would not have a ton of IMBY posts asking about it. I think this has been done in the past and is very helpful. That sounds like a great idea. If you could go to SV and pay for access to the euro maps and post qpf totals for all major cities I would appreciate it. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GSP is biting at the system next week also. Leaning EURO UKMET/CMC and notes that the GFS is different than the others I listed. Light qpf, but is noted that it is way to early to pin that part down. Snow-Sleet-FR for most with poss mainly snow event mountain and western Foothills Counties. Good read. Interesting note from GSP where they say the trailing upper wave is in much closer proximity to the initial wave on the GFS compared to the EURO/UKMet/GGEM, and thus, the initial wave does not dig as much...and that's why they are kind of discouting the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Finally got power back on here in south Shelby after being in the dark a few hours. I haven't looked much at anything but did glance at the Euro, and it looks like its 5H becomes cut off, after sending a spoke our way. If the initial s/w is stronger it would be a bigger snow, in fact a very strong winter storm, but we can't say that yet with so much discrepancy on the models. I do think the temps are plenty cold through the Carolinas and only warm aloft in eastern sections to ATL around the end of the first event, the strong high should keep a lot of folks subfreezing for temps at the surface and toward I-40 probably an all snow event, unless the initial s/w gets much stronger. This probably will trend wetter, as the setup is pretty good so far, and its at that time range the models start honing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 FFC forecast- looks at least reasonable until Tuesday, no way we make mid 40s..... Monday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain or snow or sleet. Highs around 40. Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow or sleet. Lows around 30. Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 +1. Just because folks pay to see models does not mean they have to post those totals, just saying... That sounds like a great idea. If you could go to SV and pay for access to the euro maps and post qpf totals for all major cities I would appreciate it. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For our area I'm actually more worried about 850 temps...more worried about it mixing with sleet or just going to a really cold rain per the Euro. I prefer snow in the day if it can stick, but heck even if it doesn't stick it's better to look at then rain. Your worry is very valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 There's always exceptions to the rule(2/26/04) but I'd almost always rather the storm hit at night. 2004 was golden. Snowed all day and temps never got above 30 in CLT. Just beautiful. I don't mind it falling in the day, I prefer it, because frankly I have a hard time staying awake late at night to go look at it!! Just have to deal with marginal temps. Right now it looks ok I guess, depending on which model you believe. Again I'm taking a wait and see approach. I still lean on this being pretty minor; both temp wise and qpf. I would LOVE a surprise. Maybe Foothills can bring it home for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 There's always exceptions to the rule(2/26/04) but I'd almost always rather the storm hit at night. Snow rate trumps all other factors. Unfortunately no model as yet even hints at heavy snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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