Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you would pay attention, I've already given details on RDU. This whining **** about people only giving out numbers for TBY is old. Of course, I'm going to give precedent to MBY, as it is indeed where I live. Calm down, Roy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The only negative I can find with this setup is it's during the day. You could definitely struggle at first to accumulate much as ground temps are around 40 as it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Snow White will make it all better... Now that was actually a good one. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The only negative I can find with this setup is it's during the day. You could definitely struggle at first to accumulate much as ground temps are around 40 as it starts. Yea I choose to take a blend of the GFS (temps) with the Euro (qpf) and assume it trends wetter. Seriously though my only problem with it is for MBY it's on the edge sfc temps wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I never thought I'd see the day you were this optimistic and encouraged lol. You know the winter must rock if cheez is this upbeat Meanwhile they are talking about sacrificing people over in the mid atlantic forum Be a good Mod. Lookout! Don't let them have Brick!! I may be critical of some of his weenie posts, but he is our weenie! Don't let the yankees sacrifice him! Good look on the 12Z euro for ATL area. Also very encoraging for Cheez to be so positive about our prospects! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yea I choose to take a blend of the GFS (temps) with the Euro (qpf) and assume it trends wetter. Seriously though my only problem with it is for MBY it's on the edge sfc temps wise. Or go with the QPF of the JMA and temps of the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just looked at the Ukie and the GFS ensembles- we need a lot more time for this to percolate, still a ton of spread among all the guidance. Trends are in our favor, but a long way to go as the cliche goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you would pay attention, I've already given details on RDU. This whining **** about people only giving out numbers for TBY is old. Of course, I'm going to give precedent to MBY, as it is indeed where I live. QPF wasn't given for RDU, it's OK though, it's going to change tonight anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Calm down, Roy. :lmao: Don't you call in here with your @$?! questions either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Selfishly, I hope the GFS and 12z GFS Ensemble members are right about a bigger deal soming Thursday/Friday. I will be in Seattle Monday-Thursday and could get back in time for that event, I will not be here for the Monday/Tuesday event. The first event for the Triangle event looks like the classic brief snow to ice to rain scenario. If the GFS is right the wedge is strong enough and it would be a nice little mixed bag event, if the ECMWF is right the Triangel gets some snow/ice then a change to rain, probably not a huge deal. The 12z GFS does have support on the late next week event from it's ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So the euro brings all the energy out and leaves none in the southwest but has a weak storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just looked at the Ukie and the GFS ensembles- we need a lot more time for this to percolate, still a ton of spread among all the guidance. Trends are in our favor, but a long way to go as the cliche goes. Did you say percolate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 QPF wasn't given for RDU, it's OK though, it's going to change tonight anyways. ECMWF gives RDU 0.45 QPF. Looks like the first 0.1 or more is snow. Euro shows temps hanging in the 32-34 range for most of the event. Euro does not have the late next week event, it does have the motherlode in Canada with 476dm thickness and -32 850s aimed right at the Great Lakes on day 10. So cold air would likely hang around the east well into early February with more threats to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Selfishly, I hope the GFS and 12z GFS Ensemble members are right about a bigger deal soming Thursday/Friday. I will be in Seattle Monday-Thursday and could get back in time for that event, I will not be here for the Monday/Tuesday event. The first event for the Triangle event looks like the classic brief snow to ice to rain scenario. If the GFS is right the wedge is strong enough and it would be a nice little mixed bag event, if the ECMWF is right the Triangel gets some snow/ice then a change to rain, probably not a huge deal. The 12z GFS does have support on the late next week event from it's ensemble. Sounds like last week's annoying event. No thanks. I'd rather it not do anything if it's going to be a repeat of that. Hopefully, next Thursday and Friday will be the real deal. But I have a feeling this is like last year, where we had all these threats but they didn't end up being much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Sounds like last week's annoying event. No thanks. I'd rather it not do anything if it's going to be a repeat of that. Hopefully, next Thursday and Friday will be the real deal. But I have a feeling this is like last year, where we had all these threats but they didn't end up being much of anything. Please keep the incessant whining over in the banter thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually I misread the Euro precip- still about .3 liquid mostly snow changing over to a light mix or maybe cold rain, still would be 2-3" for some folks in the Metro, especially north of the Perimeter. Wow, that is a pretty big jump from 0z. Euro upping the QPF GFS lowering it Do you think temps look to cooperate for much of of north GA? It seems like most models have decent temps for us just diiferent with regards to QPF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, that is a pretty big jump from 0z. Euro upping the QPF GFS lowering it Do you think temps look to cooperate for much of of north GA? It seems like most models have decent temps for us just diiferent with regards to QPF.. temps go above freezing at 850 even in gainsville. Not by much. They do get .43 qpf tho. Most as snow then sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 temps go above freezing at 850 even in gainsville. Not by much. They do get .43 qpf tho. Most as snow then sleet. Thanks man! What a jump by th euro. Hopefully it's the start of a nice trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The "boot" pattern emerges... strong +PNA and Greenland Block. The really cold stuff is coming if this is true. A personal favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I just got back to the office and had a chance to take a look at the 12z euro and TBH the qpf isn't horrible for the RDU area. The main concern is the temps and the euro is not always the best w/ temps in cad situations. I see a lot of freeking out from some of the SE crew members right now and all I have to say is this will change. It might get better or it might get worse but I doubt it plays out exactly like the 12z euro. Like Allen said, I would prefer the 1-2 punch the 12 gfs showed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks man! What a jump by th euro. Hopefully it's the start of a nice trend Anytime. What is your nearest station code and i can punch it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The "boot" pattern emerges... strong +PNA and Greenland Block. The really cold stuff is coming if this is true. A personal favorite. Yep this is going to get really interesting once and if this starts up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And the Euro ensembles say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yep this is going to get really interesting once and if this starts up. Cold and snowy February and March, here we come! I just hope we can actually get something to play in our favor, we have terrible luck in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cold and snowy February and March, here we come! I just hope we can actually get something to play in our favor, we have terrible luck in these parts. Don't you dare try and say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why are so many people flipping out over one model run? Geez. I'll be right there with you cliff-diving if something similar to what happened last Monday happens, but it's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cold and snowy February and March, here we come! I just hope we can actually get something to play in our favor, we have terrible luck in these parts. How much snow have you gotten since 3/1/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Interesting AFD from RAH. They prefer the GFS/CMC blend and they state the Euro's ens mean hints at GFS like solution. It was about as bullish a AFD on winter weather for NC as I have ever seen this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Interesting AFD from RAH. They prefer the GFS/CMC blend and they state the Euro's ens mean hints at GFS like solution. It was about as bullish a AFD on winter weather for NC as I have ever seen this far out. I agree. Good writeup for them. They've also already added snow chances to their entire CWA, it appears. They're normally a conservative NWS office, so perhaps this is a good sign. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS/GGEM/UKMet all stretch the trailing upper wave and throw a lobe of it into Old Mexico, while the Euro is vastly different, bringing the trailing vort into Nebraska/Kansas. Euro is a better look as it also tracks the initial vort into Alabama, whereas the GFS/GGEM take it farther north into TN/KY. All models were colder this run, including the UKMet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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