beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro plymouth maps at Day 5 don't look so hot -- surface low barely perceptable off Jax, Fl. as high retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro is definitely at least 3" here...stunning reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This looks eerily and painfully familiar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does it mostly come from overrunning? Surface low looks so weak -- hard to believe it would generate much precip. (But I know you've got better maps than Plymouth) Euro is definitely at least 3" here...stunning reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, .4" all snow or maybe changing to sleet in ATL (esp north side) by 108. This turn of events is frankly stunning. Is this really going to happen? What a winter, now I have to follow every model for the next 5 days again. Hopefully it makes it's way to Augusta/Aiken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This looks eerily and painfully familiar: Yep, screwed by Miller B again, classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This looks eerily and painfully familiar: Repeat of the last "storm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually I misread the Euro precip- still about .3 liquid mostly snow changing over to a light mix or maybe cold rain, still would be 2-3" for some folks in the Metro, especially north of the Perimeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Does it mostly come from overrunning? Surface low looks so weak -- hard to believe it would generate much precip. (But I know you've got better maps than Plymouth) I don't have the maps yet but I'd guess it's overrunning...it's almost scary the similarities in the timing with the last storm, just 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey, I called snow here with the last storm pretty far in advance. Living here for 30 years has made me naturally pessimistic, if we get say another 2 events here with at least 1" of snow it would be the first time since I moved here in 1982. Amazing stuff. Still not 100% convinced with this next system, still too much model waffling but a consensus may be emerging. My house may be a bit too far south but someone to my north may hit the jackpot again- over 4" seems like a stretch but a solid 2-3" is certainly on the table. Yeah, I think you did good with the last storm. But I certainly know what you mean about being pessimistic..living here has forced me to be too. Although this year has made be not be so pessimistic. I fear that might burn me in the future so I'm trying my best not to let the success we have had go to my head lol. But doesn't it seem totally bizarre to actually have systems work out days in advance? Who would have thunk it I never get tired of hearing someone like you saying they haven't seen anything like it before lol. I think you will get in on the action next week, although It's going to be close for some. Although there is a lot of question marks for next week, I think just about everyone will see some flakes at some point over the next 7 or 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Repeat of the last "storm"? As in no snow for you. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Repeat of the last "storm"? As in it looks similar, in some respects (not an exact match) to the Jan 10-11 event. I don't know about the qpf...but it looks like it might be similar in that the best lift and moisture don't arrive here in time (if at all). I could be wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like RDU is almost all ZR or IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Btw, I'll will be MIA for the next few days so you kids be good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As in it looks similar, in some respects (not an exact match) to the Jan 10-11 event. I don't know about the qpf...but it looks like it might be similar in that the best lift and moisture don't arrive here in time. I could be wrong though... Typical. We were very lucky with the December snows. Now it is back to normal with the cold air here but no precip around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't have the maps yet but I'd guess it's overrunning...it's almost scary the similarities in the timing with the last storm, just 24 hours later. There is a very good SW flow and the weakening but still potent short wave coming in over the cold air- the lack of a good surface low is not a problem. Probably nobody gets 8" like some did the last time, but another I-85 system with 2-4" looks very possible. Still would like to see a bunch more runs before really getting worked up but it has peaked my interest to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This run paints 2-4"' across much of the western half of NC and the upstate(more in NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Typical. We were very lucky with the December snows. Now it is back to normal with the cold air here but no precip around. well, the EURO is good but it is not ALWAYS exactly right, so don't go cliff diving just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks (to you and QueenCitywx) - was tyring to figure out how that pitiful 1016 low was generating enough precip to matter -- overrunning is the answer. There is a very good SW flow and the weakening but still potent short wave coming in over the cold air- the lack of a good surface low is not a problem. Probably nobody gets 8" like some did the last time, but another I-85 system with 2-4" looks very possible. Still would like to see a bunch more runs before really getting worked up but it has peaked my interest to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This run paints 2-4"' across much of the western half of NC and the upstate(more in NC) Is that all from the first s/w? Is there one-two punch coming like on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 New JMA slows down then gets much warmer as storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Repeat of the last "storm"? People with access to QPF on the Euro are located in Charlotte and Atlanta so we will have to hope someone feels sorry for us and gives us QPF for central/eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This run paints 2-4"' across much of the western half of NC and the upstate(more in NC) As in Charlotte to GSO (85)? At work and handicapped. Thanks for any info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 New JMA slows down then gets much warmer as storm arrives. Yet hammers Far western NC and east tenn before ending as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Btw, I'll will be MIA for the next few days so you kids be good now I'll be at Disney World in Florida on Monday. Gonna be tough if something happens IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 People with access to QPF on the Euro are located in Charlotte and Atlanta so we will have to hope someone feels sorry for us and gives us QPF for central/eastern NC. If you would pay attention, I've already given details on RDU. This whining **** about people only giving out numbers for TBY is old. Of course, I'm going to give precedent to MBY, as it is indeed where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'll be at Disney World in Florida on Monday. Gonna be tough if something happens IMBY. Snow White will make it all better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 did anything happen with the second wave or just the first on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 People chill out over one set of model runs, all of you are like a bunch of puppets on really short strings! The models still can't handle all the s/w's correctly so stop cliff diving 4 days out, especially you central NC people. Y'all can drive someone crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 As in Charlotte to GSO (85)? At work and handicapped. Thanks for any info! Roughly, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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