Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think we've been spoiled lately with the bigger snows, but anything over 2 inches of snow here is a good storm. It seems we used to get snow like this more often, and now we get either a big snow or nothing. We have been spoiled, I was sitting here thinking about it last night. It's almost becoming routine to get a winter event now. I think it's telling that when the prior runs were showing 0.25/0.35 or so here as snow/mix with the one early next week, I wasn't that excited. Any other year, that would be enough to. At this point though, anything we get is just a bonus. If we don't get another flake I'd be satisfied. But I sure hope we get another big one, might as well make this winter untouchable by winters in the future lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mega PNA after 180... We need a good 80s style arctic outbreak. It's been way too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks cold throughout. PNA ridge remains, although no real indication of a west-based -NAO or Greenland block. No torching sustained warm-ups to be sure and plenty of threats throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through 204 hours CLT gets .75" total qpf on this run, all snow I think, maybe some sleet or Zr, and Elizabeth City to ORF get 1.75" to 2.25" I'll take that for sure, but wee need it painting that 24 hours away not 204 ...as wow pointed out one of these waves has to be a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 La Nina? Weren't we supposed to be warmer and drier this year (La Nina)? This almost seems more like an El Nino pattern unfolding... Meh...silly Mother Nature. Yes you are right, It does. But with no juiced up southern stream like last year. Which in the end is better for alot of people with less WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 One of these shortwaves will be our winner. Nice HP over SE Canada at 180 hrs though the flow looks to be interrupted by "noise." Regardless, a favorable pattern it remains. I agree, one of these will give us something worth while, just a matter of which one and when. Gfs continues the cold pattern beyond day 8..in fact it looks to continue the wave of gulf lows/southern stream systems with plentiful cold air. Details are of course meaningless but the pattern it is showing is noteworthy. Subject to radical changes of course. Sure has been a fun winter though tracking all these systems. So many of our winters, the models weren't even worth looking at all season. Mega PNA after 180... We need a good 80s style arctic outbreak. It's been way too long. That's what I'm talking about lol. I've been thinking to myself It's the one thing that is missing from this winter and one thing we haven't had in a very long time. It would certainly be the icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS fires up another winter storm in the 300+ hr range. By 336 hr it is already snowing in Wilmington and the entire state of North Carolina has subzero 850s as the low makes the turn up the coast. It's snowing in Atlanta and in central Georgia. By the time it's all said and done, WNC gets less QPF but with potentially monster ratios. Wilmington and the Outer Banks might end up with a foot and Raleigh probably gets 8" or so. Also, Central Georgia gets hammered. Why am I looking at things which are two weeks away? Good to see the GFS back in fantasy storm mode, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Should we have a thread for the 27 and 28 threat, or is too far away right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Little doubt now that January also will go down as basically cold for the Southeast, like December was. Only time will tell if February is cold or has a warm up, but either way, this will be remembered as a very cold Winter in my opinion, even if February goes to above normal, the first two months were/will be very very cold, and a top 10 at that, maybe closer to a top 5 in some areas. My winter outlook had a warmer than average Jan/Feb and cold Dec/Mar, so its a pretty big bust for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS fires up another winter storm in the 300+ hr range. By 336 hr it is already snowing in Wilmington and the entire state of North Carolina has subzero 850s as the low makes the turn up the coast. It's snowing in Atlanta and in central Georgia. By the time it's all said and done, WNC gets less QPF but with potentially monster ratios. Wilmington and the Outer Banks might end up with a foot and Raleigh probably gets 8" or so. Also, Central Georgia gets hammered. Why am I looking at things which are two weeks away? Good to see the GFS back in fantasy storm mode, though. Because that's exactly what the GFS wants you to do. These are not the snowstorms you're looking for. Move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks good to me. 2 to 4 inches would be a nice little event. We'll see how the other model trends. ok !!!! I feel much better now The Brickster has put his SEAL of Approval on this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Should we have a thread for the 27 and 28 threat, or is too far away right now? A little too soon. Let's see if the models continue to show a threat for another day or so and then we could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Cold rain for Columbia of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yes you are right, It does. But with no juiced up southern stream like last year. Which in the end is better for alot of people with less WAA. Agreed. Warm air advection - always showing up at the party causing someone to call the cops. The southern stream does seem to be slightly stirring in spite of La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 12z CMC is more juiced up with the first wave and also warmer. Most qpf falls as snow from Atlanta north. Not much diff from last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 12z CMC is more juiced up with the first wave and also warmer. Still looks cold enough for some fun. North ga sees snow to freezing rain (assuming temps are below freezing of course..prior runs of the canadian were fairly warm) probably with around 0.30 to 0.40 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GGEM is similar to the last storm, it starts off healthy but dimishes as it comes east. Its stronger than GFS though, and would be a decent winter storm across the Southeast, esp. west of the Apps to GA region and probably getting much lighter in the Carolinas, esp. NC. All models are digging the next wave well south and west, and as much as the Euro likes southwest systems it probably will bury it even further west and south toward the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree, one of these will give us something worth while, just a matter of which one and when. Gfs continues the cold pattern beyond day 8..in fact it looks to continue the wave of gulf lows/southern stream systems with plentiful cold air. Details are of course meaningless but the pattern it is showing is noteworthy. Subject to radical changes of course. Sure has been a fun winter though tracking all these systems. So many of our winters, the models weren't even worth looking at all season. That's what I'm talking about lol. I've been thinking to myself It's the one thing that is missing from this winter and one thing we haven't had in a very long time. It would certainly be the icing on the cake. that is for sure - and last winter we all thought was a once in a lifetime thing and this year is even better! with la nina i honestly thought we might have one or two things to follow, and a little ice and other wise nothing. i would love at least one more storm. as for amounts, yes we have gotten biggies, but i agree with the other poster, in the se anything above 2" is a great snowfall. 2-4" is usually a biggie in my book (now that is up to 8" to be a biggie lol) Little doubt now that January also will go down as basically cold for the Southeast, like December was. Only time will tell if February is cold or has a warm up, but either way, this will be remembered as a very cold Winter in my opinion, even if February goes to above normal, the first two months were/will be very very cold, and a top 10 at that, maybe closer to a top 5 in some areas. My winter outlook had a warmer than average Jan/Feb and cold Dec/Mar, so its a pretty big bust for me so far. most definitely. as long as the cold continues to early feb (and we get at least one more event before mid feb ) it could warm up big time and for the se this winter will stil lhave been a very long, cold, and snowy one (jeesh who would have thunk i could ever say that about a se winter, esp two back to back ones lol) honestly i am still pretty hopeful we are not done. feb can have some good snows around here. the first few years i was back in ga, feb was the snowiest month of all (until our horrible winter fails and the awful drought) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ha! I get a little mix followed by some driz. Gets a bit better each run. Yall's spoiled churlishness is gonna get you. As soon as one of these lows spins up and hangs out near the New Found Lands, we'll get a nice supressed storm and it will be boom city over me and Psalm and Fide, then ya'll will be crying over your one inch while we are getting out the snow shoes Keep your eyes out for blocking and 'till then take what you can get, even if it is a dusting. Now Chris may be happy enough if winter's over with his total ..I guess I might start thinking that way too, if I'd got near 20 inches already But I just got the after thought consolation prize at Christmas, and rode the dry slot for the Jan. storm..so this winter has a lot of making up to do with me and my southside pals. So if ya'll don't want your low qpf dusting..we'll take it in a heart beat, lol. Even after being in the bulleye for more than a few runs on those storms, Bricks "nice little" 2 to 4 inches would be a monster storm to us thus far. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12 Z Canadian doesn't look all too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, this storm is much more frustrating than the last one and will still have surprises I am sure- I now have to admit that getting a couple of inches of snow in north GA is getttng more and more in the realm of possibility. Perfect timing with the CAD/fairly weak -NAO, this winter continues to amaze. Then the GFS gives us snow with the next system LOL. I guess this winter I should just forecast snow with every system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, this storm is much more frustrating than the last one and will still have surprises I am sure- I now have to admit that getting a couple of inches of snow in north GA is getttng more and more in the realm of possibility. Perfect timing with the CAD/fairly weak -NAO, this winter continues to amaze. Then the GFS gives us snow with the next system LOL. I guess this winter I should just forecast snow with every system.... I never thought I'd see the day you were this optimistic and encouraged lol. You know the winter must rock if cheez is this upbeat Meanwhile they are talking about sacrificing people over in the mid atlantic forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GGEM is similar to the last storm, it starts off healthy but dimishes as it comes east. Its stronger than GFS though, and would be a decent winter storm across the Southeast, esp. west of the Apps to GA region and probably getting much lighter in the Carolinas, esp. NC. All models are digging the next wave well south and west, and as much as the Euro likes southwest systems it probably will bury it even further west and south toward the Baja. What's interesting though is that the Euro hasn't been digging the trailing wave into the SW anything like the GFS/GGEM...neither has the UKMet. If the Euro and UKMet can hold serve with the colder trend, it may be game on with their morning runs. Last night's UKMet looked like it was going to be a good moisture producer, but the temps were suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I never thought I'd see the day you were this optimistic and encouraged lol. You know the winter must rock if cheez is this upbeat Hey, I called snow here with the last storm pretty far in advance. Living here for 30 years has made me naturally pessimistic, if we get say another 2 events here with at least 1" of snow it would be the first time since I moved here in 1982. Amazing stuff. Still not 100% convinced with this next system, still too much model waffling but a consensus may be emerging. My house may be a bit too far south but someone to my north may hit the jackpot again- over 4" seems like a stretch but a solid 2-3" is certainly on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Where are you in Atlanta Cheeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble Mean came in quite in drier than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro to 78- stronger tough in TX, looks OK so far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 96, similar to GFS with short wave to the west, much different with following digger, this will not bury anything in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, .4" all snow or maybe changing to sleet in ATL (esp north side) by 108. This turn of events is frankly stunning. Is this really going to happen? What a winter, now I have to follow every model for the next 5 days again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro says we struggle to crack freezing on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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