burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And of course, by the time the "next event" arrive s, the high will be gone. The models have been pushing storms back all year so far. It looks like someone took a shotgun with red shot and fired it at the model (on ewall). Don't they make consolidated shortwaves anymore? I don't know looks like the bigger worry might be suppression city on this run for the "week away" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This really isn't that bad of an event for RDU, verbatim. Looks like maybe 2-4" of snow going off the maps. It looks like the GFS may keep RDU at all-snow this run (with maybe a little sleet mixed in). The winners in this one are northeastern North Carolina (maybe Elizabeth City area), who would probably get 5"+ out of this. It also fails to nail anyone north of Virginia, so that is climatologically good for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can 1020 even technically qualify as a low pressure system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 @ 102 looks like light snow showers for I-20 northward in Georgia @ 108 looks like even lighter snow for same region, but throw in upstate S.C. and just creeping into North Carolina, but plenty cold enough. Just moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM does alright but a lot of times it overestimates moisture especially coming from the GOM...that last storm was a testament to that....though it did do pretty well with GA IIRC. Terrific answer. Seriously, thanks. I know the last event in my area (Lyman, SC *western Spa. county*) was just about spot on with moisture expectations v/s actuals. In fact, it would seem we over-delivered on the actuals (here locally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Another change on the gfs! No surprise here. The GFS wants to shear out the first wave agian and really dig the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This really isn't that bad of an event for RDU, verbatim. Looks like maybe 2-4" of snow going off the maps. It looks like the GFS may keep RDU at all-snow this run (with maybe a little sleet mixed in). The winners in this one are northeastern North Carolina (maybe Elizabeth City area), who would probably get 5"+ out of this. It also fails to nail anyone north of Virginia, so that is climatologically good for the Southeast. GFS looks good to me. 2 to 4 inches would be a nice little event. We'll see how the other model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Another change on the gfs! No surprise here. The GFS wants to shear out the first wave agian and really dig the second one. The big plus with this run was cold enough for all snow. Now we just gotta see if we can get the timing right and maybe squeeze out more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why would JB even through out the mention of the '93 super storm......we are not talking about a triple phase theat this weekend to my knowledge. As far as I can tell, he wasn't saying that we are going to get another superstorm like March '93. He was commenting on the fact that we might have cold temps and possible storms in the coming days even though the AO and NAO might be positive, as they were in March '93 during the time that we had the superstorm. So, he's not predicting a superstorm, but he's just giving an example of the fact that AO and NAO values aren't the end-all, be-all to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This really isn't that bad of an event for RDU, verbatim. Looks like maybe 2-4" of snow going off the maps. It looks like the GFS may keep RDU at all-snow this run (with maybe a little sleet mixed in). The winners in this one are northeastern North Carolina (maybe Elizabeth City area), who would probably get 5"+ out of this. It also fails to nail anyone north of Virginia, so that is climatologically good for the Southeast. Elizabeth City is on the edge temps wise both SFC and 850's...though they might be able to overcome it with better temps. You're right though we are in good climo all we need is just a little more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Meh, actually RDU only gets .28" QPF from this run, so maybe 1.5-2.5" out of this depending on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yep, flurries with a local dusting Yep. We can't get a real precip event in here for our lives lately. We can get the temps though, but all the winter storms lately have had high ratios, not much actual water. We need a real storm, LOL. In the western sections we'll also have very dry air so that won't help. I think west of the Apps will have more moisture, and again very east of the Apps toward the central and eastern Piedmont to coastal plain, so we may end up with next to nothing. The next gulf storm will be on its heels but we may be too warm then. See what the Euro says, but I'd bet it also trends weaker with the first system. All these waves are to close together for a big or even moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Another change on the gfs! No surprise here. The GFS wants to shear out the first wave agian and really dig the second one. Yeah, I think your right. We need to see how the UK/GEM/Euro handle this. Even though I like what the GFS is showing with RDU getting a 2-3 inches of snow I don't think it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That second system has some potential. If it come come out of the southwest a further north, it could be a big one. This run has it way to the south but we all know the gfs tendency to be too far south. And don't be fooled by the "warm" 850s, if this system came in further north, 850mb wetbulbs are way below freezing over a large are (almost all of the south) and so the temps would be much colder after saturation. We've seen this with a few of our snow storms since last year. So we really should keep an eye on this imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The big plus with this run was cold enough for all snow. Now we just gotta see if we can get the timing right and maybe squeeze out more moisture. Seems to have the same timing. It just wants to have the second s/w diving into the southwest as the main player. This is want it wanted to do with the last storm and the Christmas storm. The GFS has a bias of crushing the southern stream vort too quick. I still like the setup and if that vort can be stronger longer we are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Another change on the gfs! No surprise here. The GFS wants to shear out the first wave agian and really dig the second one. Seems like that happens often in these situations inside of 5 days where you have one S/W on the heels of another. The lead one seems to fizzle out, which delays any potential storm by 2 days. It's always something. The flow is just way too busy to get a nice, consolidated slow-moving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Meh, actually RDU only gets .28" QPF from this run, so maybe 1.5-2.5" out of this depending on ratios. I think we've been spoiled lately with the bigger snows, but anything over 2 inches of snow here is a good storm. It seems we used to get snow like this more often, and now we get either a big snow or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And of course the GFS makes a big deal of the Gulf storm late next week, but its a week away so we know how that can go. We'll probably have to sacrifice the first event and risk our temps on the second one. At this point a nice big dose of rain would be good, we've been nickled and dimed here for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Seems like that happens often in these situations inside of 5 days where you have one S/W on the heels of another. The lead one seems to fizzle out, which delays any potential storm by 2 days. It's always something. The flow is just way too busy to get a nice, consolidated slow-moving storm. Welcome to La-nina. This could still be a good 4-6 event and maybe more for some folks but im not sold on a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Check this out. 12z GFS has significant back-end snow in Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Alabama with the storm after this (not that I buy the solution). http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_162l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_168l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_174l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And of course the GFS makes a big deal of the Gulf storm late next week, but its a week away so we know how that can go. We'll probably have to sacrifice the first event and risk our temps on the second one. At this point a nice big dose of rain would be good, we've been nickled and dimed here for too long. It could be snow on snow in the same week with more cold air and storms to come. I am well over my average for the year. And this pattern is loaded for more fun and games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OMG, don't do this to me GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That second system has some potential. If it come come out of the southwest a further north, it could be a big one. This run has it way to the south but we all know the gfs tendency to be too far south. And don't be fooled by the "warm" 850s, if this system came in further north, 850mb wetbulbs are way below freezing over a large are (almost all of the south) and so the temps would be much colder after saturation. We've seen this with a few of our snow storms since last year. So we really should keep an eye on this imo. I don't think the other models are digging that second vort nearly as much as the GFS. And I remember HPC saying that was a GFS error yesterday or the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through 204 hours CLT gets .75" total qpf on this run, all snow I think, maybe some sleet or Zr, and Elizabeth City to ORF get 1.75" to 2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Welcome to La-nina. This could still be a good 4-6 event and maybe more for some folks but im not sold on a blockbuster. La Nina? Weren't we supposed to be warmer and drier this year (La Nina)? This almost seems more like an El Nino pattern unfolding... Meh...silly Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And of course the GFS makes a big deal of the Gulf storm late next week, but its a week away so we know how that can go. We'll probably have to sacrifice the first event and risk our temps on the second one. At this point a nice big dose of rain would be good, we've been nickled and dimed here for too long. At least we have potential. Thats for sure! Something has to come together sooner or later for a doozy! Keep da faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, even with the system way to the south the gfs still manages to give us something. My mouth is watering at the prospect of this system being a little further north as I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's always a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 through 204 hours CLT gets .75" total qpf on this run, all snow I think, maybe some sleet or Zr, and Elizabeth City to ORF get 1.75" to 2.25" One of these shortwaves will be our winner. Nice HP over SE Canada at 180 hrs though the flow looks to be interrupted by "noise." Regardless, a favorable pattern it remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, I'll take what the 12z gfs is giving me at hr 183/186....Like lookout, my mouth is watering w/ that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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