beanskip Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Doesn't look that much different from 6z GFS, though. Not feeling it on this storm. NAM is not pretty at 84, but it is the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 one thing that puzzles me is just how close all these s/w are in the flow. The NAM not be far off the mark at 84, it depends on how tall the ridge gets and the spacing and orientation/strength of the waves.If the next wave doesnt' dig or is too sheared it won't be much of a precip producer in the Southeast, then the next one will have to be watched. Complete unknowns right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Doesn't look that much different from 6z GFS, though. Agreed. The NAM's a little further north with the surface low in the midwest (and also colder at 850 level further south), but it's the next couple of frames after this on the GFS where this low gets combined with energy in the gulf. Here's Hour 84 on the 12Z NAM: Here's hour 84 on the 06Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree, An inland runner seems like the track to fit the nao rising. And JB agrees! LOL.. March 93 From JB.. And I like the idea next weeks storm, in spite of the GFS piddling around, is a big one with inland snows and a change to rain along the coast. I will show how this pattern is similar in the means and temp forecast to what we saw in march of 1993, where we did have a 10 day period of positive ao and nao and the monster storm and cold in the east. I had to dig but I found and example of this pattern. ciao for now *** If March 93 happens (which it won't), then I may kill myself. Either that or I may have to skip out on several days of classes to experience the many feet of snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If March 93 happens (which it won't), then I may kill myself. Either that or I may have to skip out on several days of classes to experience the many feet of snow in the mountains. Im surprised that he even mentions that storm for two reasons. One it was a once in a lifetime, And two was it not rain For I-95 all the way up the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If March 93 happens (which it won't), then I may kill myself. Either that or I may have to skip out on several days of classes to experience the many feet of snow in the mountains. It seems like if it's a strong southern system that wraps up then it's coming inland which hits western NC and screws central NC, if it's a weak system like the GFS is showing than that would bode well for central NC as overunning type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So many Debbie Downers on the 84hr NAM, geez guys. The high is stronger and a little further north, based on that it's arriving a little later and maybe staying put longer. Don't count your chickens with the 84nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im surprised that he even mentions that storm for two reasons. One it was a once in a lifetime, And two was it not rain For I-95 all the way up the eastern seaboard. I think in a lot of the big cities, it was a rain-to-snow situation, but the system was so immense that it still allowed these areas to get good snowfall amounts. In GSO, I believe, it was a rain-to-snow situation and GSO ended up with 5.8". In Raleigh, however, it was a FAIL, hence the desire to kill myself if it came to fruition again. I used to live in Hurricane, WV and they got 20-30" out of that storm, it appears. Unfortunately, I lived in Greensboro, NC then and I was a year old so I wouldn't remember it anyways. Here's the map from NWS RAH showing North Carolina in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think in a lot of the big cities, it was a rain-to-snow situation, but the system was so immense that it still allowed these areas to get good snowfall amounts. In GSO, I believe, it was a rain-to-snow situation and GSO ended up with 5.8". In Raleigh, however, it was a FAIL, hence the desire to kill myself if it came to fruition again. Yeah, we need it to hug the coast. That is when we get some good snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 calculus, where do you see this low going off the coast at? Myrtle Beach?, ILM?, OBX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Doesn't look that much different from 6z GFS, though. Not feeling it on this storm. Well we'll see. I'm kinda with you, just not feeling it. Everything seems so convoluted right now. Everything hinges on such specificity that I just don't think it happens. We'll see where the trends go today and tomorrow. Whatever happens though, it is fun to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This storm is still in the good EURO range model target area. The nooner may bring less convolusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 calculus, where do you see this low going off the coast at? Myrtle Beach?, ILM?, OBX? CaryWx, I wouldn't presume to know, honestly. It's still four or so days out, at this point. Will the High in the Great Lakes/NE continue to stay strong (as currently modeled by the long-range models) and even perhaps grow as the 12Z NAM might be indicating? There's too many uncertainties for now regarding many issues. I'll defer to the knowledge of the esteemed mets on this site. Regarding the '93 Blizzard, I'd not be upset with that scenario at all for MBY. It's not likely to recur, but I was living in Lenoir, NC, at the time, and we had 17 inches out of that storm. I was out of school for almost 2 weeks at that time, which seemed like an eternity for a 6th grader! But, I know that I'm not the only one who wants snow out of this, so I hope you guys to the east get yours too. Here's to good model trends and the full realization of our snowstorm potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's not a bad idea. Their are a few small issues I have though is there might be some noobs..i mean the greenest of rookies, who don't know how to find the nws discussions. Normally, one might say who cares but one has to consider making the board as valuable as possible to everyone, including them. Plus sometimes it saves a little time because the first thing I do is read this board, not the discussions or forecasts so it keeps from from having to. Lastly, it doesn't take up too much time or space so it's hard to argue it's a big enough deal to warrant telling people not to do it. That said, your point is a valid one and it's something to consider. Something I've wondered about suggesting in the past is a pinned topic closed to outsiders (mod maintained) containing something similar to your browser's favorites or bookmarks listing where users can go to drill down to find a valuable link. Then as a follow-up to the suggestion presented, users can reference the link in their replies which is availble to all. Dacula has been doing a great job of providing links on his site, and maybe you could just reference that or build from that on this site. Just a suggestion that I thought might prove valuable and convenient. Thanks once more for all of the work you guys put into this site!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 CaryWx, I wouldn't presume to know, honestly. It's still four or so days out, at this point. Will the High in the Great Lakes/NE continue to stay strong (as currently modeled by the long-range models) and even perhaps grow as the 12Z NAM might be indicating? There's too many uncertainties for now regarding many issues. I'll defer to the knowledge of the esteemed mets on this site. Regarding the '93 Blizzard, I'd not be upset with that scenario at all for MBY. It's not likely to recur, but I was living in Lenoir, NC, at the time, and we had 17 inches out of that storm. I was out of school for almost 2 weeks at that time, which seemed like an eternity for a 6th grader! But, I know that I'm not the only one who wants snow out of this, so I hope you guys to the east get yours too. Here's to good model trends and the full realization of our snowstorm potential! Why would JB even through out the mention of the '93 super storm......we are not talking about a triple phase theat this weekend to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I would treat JB like a single weather model...probably an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The two shortwaves digging through the Plains at 78 on the GFS are soooooo close together. Is it possible for them to phase or will they maintain separation, even in such close proximity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree, An inland runner seems like the track to fit the nao rising. And JB agrees! LOL.. March 93 From JB.. And I like the idea next weeks storm, in spite of the GFS piddling around, is a big one with inland snows and a change to rain along the coast. I will show how this pattern is similar in the means and temp forecast to what we saw in march of 1993, where we did have a 10 day period of positive ao and nao and the monster storm and cold in the east. I had to dig but I found and example of this pattern. ciao for now *** I think this was the storm he was talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well the 12z GFS looks like it will be cold enough for NC and portions of SC and NE GA but the moisture might not be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS says, "what storm"? It's VERY light on QPF for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well at 114 it might not be too bad, light snow from NE GA through GSP and all of NC. For all of NC total qpf looks to be either right at or under .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well the 12z GFS looks like it will be cold enough for NC and portions of SC and NE GA but the moisture might not be there. Looks like the 84 hour NAM was on to something. The next s/w doesn't go to the 4 corners, it gets booted east in Arkansas and is here by 96hours. This would be a very light qpf event (snow ) and the next diving system, the kicker, may be a more important storm. Just looked again at the Qpf and its a trace amount everywhere in NE GA to all the Carolinas. Non-event really. Some sections get up to a tenth total through 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1020 mb low pressure coming up the coast. At least the high pressure is still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not too worried about the amount of precip right now. I don't think the models have been right with the amount of precip with many of the snows this winter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS says, "what storm"? It's VERY light on QPF for everyone. Which storm? The Monday-Tuesday? I do not believe the GFS is out to that timerange yet? Unless you already have the panels for that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the 84 hour NAM was on to something. The next s/w doesn't go to the 4 corners, it gets booted east in Arkansas and is here by 96hours. This would be a very light qpf event (snow ) and the next diving system, the kicker, may be a more important storm. Just looked again at the Qpf and its a trace amount everywhere in NE GA to all the Carolinas. Non-event really. Some sections get up to a tenth total through 114. Yep, flurries with a local dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the 84 hour NAM was on to something. The next s/w doesn't go to the 4 corners, it gets booted east in Arkansas and is here by 96hours. This would be a very light qpf event (snow ) and the next diving system, the kicker, may be a more important storm. Just looked again at the Qpf and its a trace amount everywhere in NE GA to all the Carolinas. Non-event really. Some sections get up to a tenth total through 114. Is the NAM - and I wholly admit I am in the G.E.D. process of weather knowledge - the one I've heard phrased as the "Nominal Amount of Moisture" model...is it possible that it may be under estimating? Seriously, I don't know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Which storm? The Monday-Tuesday? I do not believe the GFS is out to that timerange yet? Unless you already have the panels for that timeframe? Yea the Mon - Tues storm...compared to 00z the QPF just isn't there for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And of course, by the time the "next event" arrive s, the high will be gone. The models have been pushing storms back all year so far. It looks like someone took a shotgun with red shot and fired it at the model (on ewall). Don't they make consolidated shortwaves anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is the NAM - and I wholly admit I am in the G.E.D. process of weather knowledge - the one I've heard phrased as the "Nominal Amount of Moisture" model...is it possible that it may be under estimating? Seriously, I don't know... NAM does alright but a lot of times it overestimates moisture especially coming from the GOM...that last storm was a testament to that....though it did do pretty well with GA IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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