Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You ask and you shall receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 00Z Ukie certainly is rather interesting, better CAD and a stronger trough to the west- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GFS is showing single digit dewpoints here for Saturday, and again on Monday...always an ominous sign for wintry weather with precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Intersting to see the Canadian throw the 850 0 degree line way down into the gulf on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 00Z Ukie certainly is rather interesting, better CAD and a stronger trough to the west- With the stronger trough, I'm assuming you are referring to this leading to greater precip? Personally, I'd like to see separation with the 2 waves so that we keep it colder longer for better snow chances - like the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 After seeing what tonight's 0z runs have put out, one has to wonder what the 12zs will look like. We either keep the cold trend with the wintry precipitation chances that exist across the SE now, warmer and less wintry, or we go colder and increase the potential. The fun and madness continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 According to 6Z GFS, plenty cold, but precip seems non-existent in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 According to 6Z GFS, plenty cold, but precip seems non-existent in WNC. Storms seem suppressed and progressive throughout the period of this run. Does the relative state of the NAO have anything to do with the GFS' bias of suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Storms seem suppressed and progressive throughout the period of this run. Does the relative state of the NAO have anything to do with the GFS' bias of suppression? I wouldn't sweat the GFS. It is handling the waves out west different than the other models from last night's runs. Just have to wait and see what comes out with this morning's runs later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This system (Monday into Tuesday) definitely has my attention. I talked about it a good bit in the video and discussion today, linked in the sig below. Interesting stuff, if the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are right, this has the look of one of our old-school cold air damming winter weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very nice Matt. You do a great job showing items that we can also be looking at. Thanks for posting... This system (Monday into Tuesday) definitely has my attention. I talked about it a good bit in the video and discussion today, linked in the sig below. Interesting stuff, if the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are right, this has the look of one of our old-school cold air damming winter weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This system (Monday into Tuesday) definitely has my attention. I talked about it a good bit in the video and discussion today, linked in the sig below. Interesting stuff, if the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are right, this has the look of one of our old-school cold air damming winter weather events. Great video Matt! Love what you were talking about at the end, if we can keep that PNA positive and the NAO relaxes from positive down to negative then we could seriously be in business for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Matt good clip as always. I enjoy seeing them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks guys. Fun stuff....we will see how it plays out. All it takes is a little different behavior of the 500mb disturbance and everything evolves very differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think this makes 2 consec. runs that the Euro had a strong eastern Canada low. Its down to the 950's on Day 6. If thats even close, the surface high in New England won't be going anywhere too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think this makes 2 consec. runs that the Euro had a strong eastern Canada low. Its down to the 950's on Day 6. If thats even close, the surface high in New England won't be going anywhere too soon. That means bad ice for us if that stays down there right? We need a good dumping of snow first so the ice can just just slide off the snow on the power-lines and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That means bad ice for us if that stays down there right? We need a good dumping of snow first so the ice can just just slide off the snow on the power-lines and trees. I'm afraid so. For mostly snow, or half and half atleast, we want to see a double barreled high with an inverted trough through the Tenn. Valley or a very supressed surface low to start. With the next Plains low already showing up, that forces the surface high to park over New England, but as its translating from the Lakes to NE, we get some snow to start, then end up under the ice. As Matt mentioned, after this storm, the pattern stays very favorable for another event of some type, with strong PNA and blocking either in Greenland or east based NAO, with deep eastern US trough. So many strong shortwaves are seen in the flow on all models, this could turn into a pattern we don't want. But lets just wait and see if the first storm develops. We're at that climo peak now to mid Feb. (next 4 weeks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think this makes 2 consec. runs that the Euro had a strong eastern Canada low. Its down to the 950's on Day 6. If thats even close, the surface high in New England won't be going anywhere too soon. Hmm, this has the feel of our discussion about 3 weeks ago about the last system; how it was a classic overrunning event. From what I understand though the temps are not going to be as cold. We'll see. Whenever we're talking about an "ice" storm temperatures always seem to be right on the line and don't always work out. Hopefully it'll get colder on the models as we progress to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If the high strenghtens enough , with a thicker layer of cold damming, some areas could end up with more sleet than ZR. The high is shown to be strengthening as it progresses across the Lakes and into CAD position. Models don't usually show CAD very well this far out, and if the 5H setup is real, (with the strong eastern CAN low) then the CAD signature would grow with time. Its really been a while since we've had a good, true hardcore CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm afraid so. For mostly snow, or half and half atleast, we want to see a double barreled high with an inverted trough through the Tenn. Valley or a very supressed surface low to start. With the next Plains low already showing up, that forces the surface high to park over New England, but as its translating from the Lakes to NE, we get some snow to start, then end up under the ice. As Matt mentioned, after this storm, the pattern stays very favorable for another event of some type, with strong PNA and blocking either in Greenland or east based NAO, with deep eastern US trough. So many strong shortwaves are seen in the flow on all models, this could turn into a pattern we don't want. But lets just wait and see if the first storm develops. We're at that climo peak now to mid Feb. (next 4 weeks) What should be interesting to watch is to see if as we get closer (IF the Euro keeps the storm) if the qpf goes slowly down. Could be our saving grace if we end up with favorable climo for ice on this storm. Keep that ZR away please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The weather weenie in me is just fascinated by the fact that we are likely going to continue to be cold overall, but by completely different atmosphere means (indices) than the first half of winter. You know you are a weather nerd when stuff like that fascinates you...haha. And yes, Robert, it does seem like forever since we had a true, honest-to-goodness, winter weather-producing CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The weather weenie in me is just fascinated by the fact that we are likely going to continue to be cold overall, but by completely different atmosphere means (indices) than the first half of winter. You know you are a weather nerd when stuff like that fascinates you...haha. Yep, indeed Matt. I've been trying to listen to The Teaching Company's "Wonders of Meteorology" by Robert G. Fovell out of UCLA and it's pretty hard to follow along and that's a "basic" course. However the one thing he always hammers home is that when the climate goes extreme the atmosphere doesn't like it and that's when you end up with crazy events. So could the opposite of what is happening now be the atmosphere trying to "fix" the pattern but is doing it in another extreme way that it's keeping us cold still? Probably total off on that theory though. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3njjD41f48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The weather weenie in me is just fascinated by the fact that we are likely going to continue to be cold overall, but by completely different atmosphere means (indices) than the first half of winter. You know you are a weather nerd when stuff like that fascinates you...haha. And yes, Robert, it does seem like forever since we had a true, honest-to-goodness, winter weather-producing CAD event. I mentioned this the other day but it's been amazing how the winter up to this point has found a way to stay relatively cold. When a cold signal(s) relaxes, another cold signal takes over (+PNA) that helps keep the hits a comin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Robert, Is this only a potential CAD event for the favored damming regions east of the apps, or do you see a widespread winter event also possible on the western side of the apps for the TN valley? It looks like 850's shoot up even here, and there is no parent high to help us out. It looks like the track is ideal, as is the time of year............at least we have a couple of things going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The weather weenie in me is just fascinated by the fact that we are likely going to continue to be cold overall, but by completely different atmosphere means (indices) than the first half of winter. You know you are a weather nerd when stuff like that fascinates you...haha. And yes, Robert, it does seem like forever since we had a true, honest-to-goodness, winter weather-producing CAD event. Yeah I can not remember the last time we've had measurable winter weather (snow/sleet/fz rain) because of CAD in Charlotte. I remember some minor events over the years with precip starting out as sleet, then quickly changing over to rain because the CAD gets pushed out due to the warm air from the gulf. That's what happens 98% of the time it seems. That's what leads me to be pretty skeptical about what's upcoming. It's going to have to be a pretty strong HIGH, with strong blocking to make us really have a CAD event that holds. And that's just talking about ice, it would have to be severe to keep us in the snow. I'm talking myself out the hype of this storm as I type. Yep, there it goes. Hype is gone now. Dang. What would it take for this situation to turn into a snow situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Robert, Is this only a potential CAD event for the favored damming regions east of the apps, or do you see a widespread winter event also possible on the western side of the apps for the TN valley? It looks like 850's shoot up even here, and there is no parent high to help us out. It looks like the track is ideal, as is the time of year............at least we have a couple of things going for us. with falling heights right after our Gulf system next Mon/Tues in Tenn, then I wouldn't be suprised to see mostly snow there if the low stays weak and supressed, meaning more snow than ice...but its very prelimnary right now. The gulf low probably weakens in response to the next Plains low which may re-generate the moisture in the Southeast very quickly, for a long drawn out event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If the high strenghtens enough , with a thicker layer of cold damming, some areas could end up with more sleet than ZR. The high is shown to be strengthening as it progresses across the Lakes and into CAD position. Models don't usually show CAD very well this far out, and if the 5H setup is real, (with the strong eastern CAN low) then the CAD signature would grow with time. Its really been a while since we've had a good, true hardcore CAD event. I know it was only a matter of time but I was starting to wonder if we would ever get another classic cad storm. It's amazing that it's been this long to be honest. Naturally we finally have a shot of one in what is becoming, if not already so, the best winter in many people's lifetime. But it's not a slam dunk yet for a couple of reasons as I explain below. If this one comes to pass, Although it won't be as cold before hand as before the last one, it should be noted we still will be rather chilly out of ahead of this one...with lows in the 20s, highs in the 30s the day before per gfs. We should have enough cool weather to drop our ground temps back a bit and as we all know that makes all the difference in the world. It will be interesting if we see a drier or wetter trend with this system. If history is any indication it should trend wetter. However, gfs ensembles are a mix bag with some being wetter, some being dry. Better than the euro ensembles though as they look pretty dry overall...with the ensemble mean not even showing 0.10. So that could be better. It's also worth nothing that although the canadian looks great at first glance, it's surface temperatures show almost no hint of cad. Which at first glance seems odd since not only is the high position favorable, as well as the low track, the high axis is favorable as well. It's direction of axis should promote caa at the surface but it isn't showing it. I'm wondering if it has something to do with the low it has moving into the great lakes. It's not uncommon to see lows in the plains with cad but this low position is a bit far to the east for my liking. This low is so far east it looks like it's disrupting low level caa to the south. We really want that low to be a good ways further southwest preferably. The euro also has this low but is located to the west a little bit but the result is still the same with it not showing a lot of caa. The gfs doesn't show this low however. But it does show a high over the plains and normally you don't want to see such a broad area of high pressure from the plains to new england. What we would end up with on the euro and canadian would be essentially a cross between a hybrid and insitu cad and not a classic CAD event. We might get a little bit of actual caa but mostly we would get little in the way of fresh cold air during the event. In other words, most of the cold air we would get would be from the initial evaporational cooling...despite that high to the northeast. If the initial airmass is cold/dry enough, which it could be, it could last long enough to cause mostly a non liquid precip event but there is some things I would like to see improve before I get too excited over this. We have seen before where it seems like everything appeared to show a really good situation for cad only for the models to not go along with it but we dismiss it. I've learned through bitter experience that if the models aren't showing a strong wedge when at first glance you think it should, there is a good reason for it. Although it's sort of hard to see it, you can sort of see it here on allan's maps in the surface winds. Note the warmer air being pulled toward that low with east to southeast winds over the ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How can such a weak low overcome the effects of such a strong high? The low seems pretty weak at 1013 MB. Either way, I'd rather see it not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 To me, the snow chances all hinge on the initial wave dropping down into New Mexico, then toTexas. Need that vort max to track into Alabama and hold its strength as much as possible. That would hold the warming aloft in check much like the storm a week ago. If that wave falls apart and is absorbed quickly by the trailing wave tracking SE out of Montana, there's no way to stop the warming aloft...but still likely ice east of the apps. Morning NAM continues the trend of a more robust looking wave diving down toward N Mexico at hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How can such a weak low overcome the effects of such a strong high? The low seems pretty weak at 1013 MB. Either way, I'd rather see it not there. The strength between the two is mostly irrelevant and it's not a matter of the low "overcoming" the high. For starters, The high is very far to the north so it doesn't take a lot to interrupt the low level flow. Likewise with that low so far to the east, it effects the gradient between the high and our low to the south. Normally when you see a 1036mb high, there is a pretty strong cad signature in the pressure field between it and the low to our south. But look below and you can see a rather defuse and ill defined signature..especially considering the strength of that high. There should be a better defined signature in the pressure field than that but it isn't because the low is causing it. The bottom line is, Either the high needs to come further south or that low needs to be further southwest for us to truly get a classic cad event imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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