baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I tend to not like the pattern we've been in for a while. This is not the nice pattern for big snows in the great lakes and mid mississippi valley region. These PAC NW lows usually just keep dropping E-SE ward and don't turn the corner or get a chance to phase until they get to around the East Coast. Had this Southern Wave shooting along looked a little stronger and had that energy diving in from the Pac. NW we probably would have had a shot at a colossal storm for the Southern Midwest and Ohio Valley. All this being said, I wouldn't write it off just yet for you folks down that way. There is still somewhat of a shot that the models are not handling everything completely correct just yet. If some of the energy can dig and give the Southern stream a bit more "umpf" as it were, then we could have a pretty decent system. That said I would be really watching this over in the Pa/Wv/Va/Md/ area and points Northeast from there. This pattern has lent to the freak snows a couple of times in the deep South and a couple impressive snows in the Northeast and I really don't see that same/similar pattern breaking down at all for at least another month. Folks in Mo, Southern IL, Southern In, Ky should have a few more systems to watch. What concerns me is we might have a bit of a pattern change next week sometime, which could send a system through my neck of the woods. But it will happen during a transitional timeframe and that spells slop/mixy precip here and not a big snow. Then we go back to more clippers and send the primary storm track back far to the South again. Eventually as we get into say the second week of February or so we should start to see a bit of a retrograde to the pattern I believe, and the midwest/great lakes/upper ohio valley should see a much stormier pattern again. But just my thoughts on how I see the rest of met. Winter going. Alek and I are in agreement--I am looking forward to this and a massive E. Pacific ridge sending weak waves through the flow. Time to stop fantasy-storm chasing for a bit--I have become burnt out on hoping for fantasy storms--I need to rekindle my pessimism after these last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Angela Buchman just had 6.3" for indy. i like her. Second that Nice Snowfall forecast too re: hpc maps, they're old now but on the plus side it appears hpc went with gfs/ecmw. This is our first WSW of the season, maybe we'll get lucky and get a warning out of it. Or with any luck we'll get somewhere between a dusting and 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 is the NAO trending negative as we get closer to this event? Is that contributing to this wave going so far south before it heads NE, or is the confluence left over near the great lakes forcing it south? Both. The reason for the confluence left over is because of the strengthening (albeit weak) -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Safe bet the GGEM will still give us a pretty good snowfall. rgem is basically the first 48 hrs of the corresponding ggem run....so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 you congratulated....and i said save it...it's all eyecandy until tonites runs. Only diff was my fear was it might end up further nw and we'd be dealing with precip issues i know sorry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 rgem is basically the first 48 hrs of the corresponding ggem run....so yes. That's what I always thought (rather it was a higher resolution of the GGEM), which is why I generally don't waste my time with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here's the color for you black and white whiners well geez that does look a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Time to stop fantasy-storm chasing for a bit--I have become burnt out on hoping for fantasy storms--I need to rekindle my pessimism after these last few weeks. I'm with you man. Too much wasted time on my part with this system that's going to do squadoosh here. A little break will be beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 rgem is basically the first 48 hrs of the corresponding ggem run....so yes. well the RGEM and GGEM are not the same models the RGEM is run at a higher resolution GGEM is not factored into any grids within the first 48 hours anywhere in canada.. the GGEM should not even be looked at when the event is within 48 hours.....poor resolution, and very poor handling of thermal profiles in that short-term range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Alek and I are in agreement--I am looking forward to this and a massive E. Pacific ridge sending weak waves through the flow. Time to stop fantasy-storm chasing for a bit--I have become burnt out on hoping for fantasy storms--I need to rekindle my pessimism after these last few weeks. I know what you both mean. I had glanced over the models expecting to see some big systems in there and usually you could see one or two a few weeks out only for it to not happen. This is a pattern that surprised me a bit in that last week I thought we'd have a bigger system rolling through here only to not occur. I think we've done quite well with the clippers this year and that type of a pattern wouldn't upset me at all truthfully- just that a lot more folks get missed by these than our usual Texas/Oklahoma hookers or SE Colorado type lows. Once again the La Nina basically shut Winter down here this month but I think we'll hit the jackpot once or twice from Late Jan-Late Feb. And then I'll be about ready to move on to severe weather season- at least give me a few weeks to recover and get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well the RGEM and GGEM are not the same models the RGEM is run at a higher resolution GGEM is not factored into any grids within the first 48 hours anywhere in canada.. the GGEM should not even be looked at when the event is within 48 hours.....poor resolution, and very poor handling of thermal profiles in that short-term range. gotcha...i knew they weren't technically the same, i didn't know about the resolution difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm with you man. Too much wasted time on my part with this system that's going to do squadoosh here. A little break will be beneficial. Exactly--I love following weather and always will even when the pattern is boring--but since I have joined these boards I have become obsessed with big storms--I honestly have no idea why. A nice retreat to a typical mid-winter pattern will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know what you both mean. I had glanced over the models expecting to see some big systems in there and usually you could see one or two a few weeks out only for it to not happen. This is a pattern that surprised me a bit in that last week I thought we'd have a bigger system rolling through here only to not occur. I think we've done quite well with the clippers this year and that type of a pattern wouldn't upset me at all truthfully- just that a lot more folks get missed by these than our usual Texas/Oklahoma hookers or SE Colorado type lows. Once again the La Nina basically shut Winter down here this month but I think we'll hit the jackpot once or twice from Late Jan-Late Feb. And then I'll be about ready to move on to severe weather season- at least give me a few weeks to recover and get ready. Very well said. I thought with this pattern change, the lack of blocking, a nice +PNA and free flowing westerlies that something would pop. Granted this isn't anything to sneeze at, and I congratulate the guys down S, but just another good threat that won't be as good as it could have. Nice to see you back btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs looks a bit better than18z. A bit stronger on all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS now around .40 while the nam is the lowest, crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gfs looks a bit better than18z. A bit stronger on all levels Looks similar to the nam it appears.. at least we are moving back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Exactly--I love following weather and always will even when the pattern is boring--but since I have joined these boards I have become obsessed with big storms--I honestly have no idea why. A nice retreat to a typical mid-winter pattern will be nice. this board can make you go crazy you know a lot of people already have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 NAM/GFS now have come to agreement. Pretty much a 100% bet when that happens. Enjoy it for what it is. Hmm never heard of the GE rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 this board can make you go crazy you know a lot of people already have I suppose it's all in how you handle it. If you're the non-confrontational type who just goes with the flow then this forum could be quite the learning tool. Of course if you get excited about every little thing that transpires, then yeah, you'll turn into a loon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS HAO .39 CVG .42 DAY .33 ILN .37 IND .27 LOU .33 CMH .31 VS NAM CVG .38 HAO .33 DAY .28 CMH .30 ILN .35 IND ,18 LOU .35 GFS is a bit wetter for southern Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very well said. I thought with this pattern change, the lack of blocking, a nice +PNA and free flowing westerlies that something would pop. Granted this isn't anything to sneeze at, and I congratulate the guys down S, but just another good threat that won't be as good as it could have. Nice to see you back btw. Agree on both fronts. Good to see you back Justin. Amazing how close the GFS ( and NAM did ) gets us to it now but ala no dice. My hope now sits on whatever the northern system can scoop up off the lake. Not much but it is something this winter anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ukie looks like rgem....albeit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS HAO .39 CVG .42 DAY .33 ILN .37 IND .27 LOU .33 CMH .31 VS NAM CVG .38 HAO .33 DAY .28 CMH .30 ILN .35 IND ,18 LOU .35 GFS is a bit wetter for southern Ohio... Pretty big increase from 12z hopefully that trend continues. .47 here would be a 4-7" snowfall with 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This was fun from last night. 24 hours later, the NAM has 0.02" for here. Posted Yesterday, 10:11 PMJust some raw QPF numbers from the 0z NAM taken off Earl Barker's site. Amounts could be a few hundredths off here and there BTW, so they're not 100% accurate. Regardless, some nice eye candy. STL: 0.41" JLN: 0.43" DVN: 0.31" CMI: 0.60" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.29" MDW: 0.34" DTW: 0.29" YYZ: 0.28" LAF: 0.58" IND: 0.59" MIE: 0.61" CMH: 0.58" DAY: 0.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 She'll probably be wrong, but she's hot. Thats more than Chris Wright was shooting for. He has Indy in 4"-5". North 3"-4" and south 5"+. Call me crazy but I actualy like Alicia Roman more than Angela. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thats more than Chris Wright was shooting for. He has Indy in 4"-5". North 3"-4" and south 5"+. Call me crazy but I actualy like Alicia Roman more than Angela. our guy here in cmh fox channel has 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thats more than Chris Wright was shooting for. He has Indy in 4"-5". North 3"-4" and south 5"+. Call me crazy but I actualy like Alicia Roman more than Angela. Yeah I dig some Alicia Roman too. Curvier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Don't know but I think you could go 2-5 inches in my area, Going to be a close call. Might start out as a little rain too but should changeover quickly. Definitely need a good snow to cheer me up after that bs game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This was fun from last night. 24 hours later, the NAM has 0.02" for here. i just read your sig. LAF has gotten 28" of snow and (5) 4+ events this season.???!!! ...i don't feel bad for you anymore....damn, and no more whining allowed either from you or hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thats more than Chris Wright was shooting for. He has Indy in 4"-5". North 3"-4" and south 5"+. Call me crazy but I actualy like Alicia Roman more than Angela. i never complain with either Angela or Alicia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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