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January 19-21 MW/GL/OV Storm part 2


Hoosier

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lol, I think the trend is clear. I went from 6" to zippo in 24 hours...and that was even with the good Dr and GFS giving me 2-3". Beware the SE trend...it's the new thing. :guitar:

I think thats the trend with these pacific NW lows. They dip so far down south that by the time they head NE its too late for a lot of people. It also seems it's harder to get out of the pacific NW pattern because we have been stuck in it all winter. The NW trend is popular with lows that come out of the four corners, southern rockies, gulf lows, etc

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hard to say considering the gfs actually increased precip on the 18z run, couldve been a blip.. BTW. Ive got accuwx pro, but cannot find the mos data anywhere. Anyone have a clue?

Left panel under "forecast models" and where you see the green ECMWF button. The menus are expandable. Go to North America for the NAM and Worldwide for the GFS. The place to enter stations is on the bottom of the next page.

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Left panel under "forecast models" and where you see the green ECMWF button. The menus are expandable. Go to North America for the NAM and Worldwide for the GFS. The place to enter stations is on the bottom of the next page.

found it already lol.. Just wasnt scrolling down far enough lol

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FWIW, the 0z RGEM still looks good for KC, STL, JLN, IND, CMH, CVG, SDF, etc. At 48 hours though, it looks like northern 1/2 of AR gets thumped.

only goes to 48 but it appears that low would continue to head northeast and could probably do pretty well for us. Much stronger than the nam which only shows a broad area of 1018 pressures while the rgem has a 1009 low.

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only goes to 48 but it appears that low would continue to head northeast and could probably do pretty well for us. Much stronger than the nam which only shows a broad area of 1018 pressures while the rgem has a 1009 low.

Yeah it'd be a pretty good hit for you guys you'd think. Let's hope it's on to something for OH. :snowman:

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only goes to 48 but it appears that low would continue to head northeast and could probably do pretty well for us. Much stronger than the nam which only shows a broad area of 1018 pressures while the rgem has a 1009 low.

I cant read those damn b/w maps.. EDIT: NVM I figured it out lol.

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looks like you guys would do well too.

maybe baro can tell us what the rgem is sniffing. The differences are pretty amazing between it and the nam...

It at least gives us a little love. But I'm usually less than impressed with the RGEM's performance. Have to think the NAM is much more likely for here, 0.0".

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I tend to not like the pattern we've been in for a while. This is not the nice pattern for big snows in the great lakes and mid mississippi valley region. These PAC NW lows usually just keep dropping E-SE ward and don't turn the corner or get a chance to phase until they get to around the East Coast. Had this Southern Wave shooting along looked a little stronger and had that energy diving in from the Pac. NW we probably would have had a shot at a colossal storm for the Southern Midwest and Ohio Valley. All this being said, I wouldn't write it off just yet for you folks down that way. There is still somewhat of a shot that the models are not handling everything completely correct just yet. If some of the energy can dig and give the Southern stream a bit more "umpf" as it were, then we could have a pretty decent system. That said I would be really watching this over in the Pa/Wv/Va/Md/ area and points Northeast from there.

This pattern has lent to the freak snows a couple of times in the deep South and a couple impressive snows in the Northeast and I really don't see that same/similar pattern breaking down at all for at least another month. Folks in Mo, Southern IL, Southern In, Ky should have a few more systems to watch. What concerns me is we might have a bit of a pattern change next week sometime, which could send a system through my neck of the woods. But it will happen during a transitional timeframe and that spells slop/mixy precip here and not a big snow. Then we go back to more clippers and send the primary storm track back far to the South again. Eventually as we get into say the second week of February or so we should start to see a bit of a retrograde to the pattern I believe, and the midwest/great lakes/upper ohio valley should see a much stormier pattern again. But just my thoughts on how I see the rest of met. Winter going.

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looks like you guys would do well too.

maybe baro can tell us what the rgem is sniffing. The differences are pretty amazing between it and the nam...

The reg GEM is sniffing a perfect phase and a far more impressive southern stream wave. It really looks a lot like the old NAM runs which phased perfectly and had a stronger southern wave and a good GOM fetch.

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is the NAO trending negative as we get closer to this event? Is that contributing to this wave going so far south before it heads NE, or is the confluence left over near the great lakes forcing it south?

It peaked a couple of days ago, and looks to be on its way back into negative territory soon...before going back up towards the last week of January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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