JayPSU Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I got 4.5 inches last week. You were fortunate to get in on some lake action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking like 2-5 inches is a sure bet now in all of Southwestern Kentucky, I'll take it. See what our friend the GFS has in store. But I'll be back after this terrible UK game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lol, I think the trend is clear. I went from 6" to zippo in 24 hours...and that was even with the good Dr and GFS giving me 2-3". Beware the SE trend...it's the new thing. I think thats the trend with these pacific NW lows. They dip so far down south that by the time they head NE its too late for a lot of people. It also seems it's harder to get out of the pacific NW pattern because we have been stuck in it all winter. The NW trend is popular with lows that come out of the four corners, southern rockies, gulf lows, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 wasn't some of that lake enhanced? possibly. Happened when I was asleep. Got 2.5 when we went into the lull, then it snowed again at like 3am to 6 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hard to say considering the gfs actually increased precip on the 18z run, couldve been a blip.. BTW. Ive got accuwx pro, but cannot find the mos data anywhere. Anyone have a clue? Left panel under "forecast models" and where you see the green ECMWF button. The menus are expandable. Go to North America for the NAM and Worldwide for the GFS. The place to enter stations is on the bottom of the next page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking like St. Louis, Missouri is the target area for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Left panel under "forecast models" and where you see the green ECMWF button. The menus are expandable. Go to North America for the NAM and Worldwide for the GFS. The place to enter stations is on the bottom of the next page. found it already lol.. Just wasnt scrolling down far enough lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Some pretty drastic shifts south with the NAM compared to this time last night. Hopefully it nudges back north a bit by tomorrow night for you northern Indiana and Ohio guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 rgem at 48....not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, the 0z RGEM still looks good for KC, STL, JLN, IND, CMH, CVG, SDF, etc. At 48 hours though, it looks like northern 1/2 of AR gets thumped. EDIT: Oops, Buckeye beat me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW, the 0z RGEM still looks good for KC, STL, JLN, IND, CMH, CVG, SDF, etc. At 48 hours though, it looks like northern 1/2 of AR gets thumped. only goes to 48 but it appears that low would continue to head northeast and could probably do pretty well for us. Much stronger than the nam which only shows a broad area of 1018 pressures while the rgem has a 1009 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 RGEM is a good .50 QPF here, the NAM like .30 awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 only goes to 48 but it appears that low would continue to head northeast and could probably do pretty well for us. Much stronger than the nam which only shows a broad area of 1018 pressures while the rgem has a 1009 low. Yeah it'd be a pretty good hit for you guys you'd think. Let's hope it's on to something for OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah the RGEM looks great from northern Arkansas/southern Missouri through southern Illinois, much of Indiana and most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 only goes to 48 but it appears that low would continue to head northeast and could probably do pretty well for us. Much stronger than the nam which only shows a broad area of 1018 pressures while the rgem has a 1009 low. I cant read those damn b/w maps.. EDIT: NVM I figured it out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah it'd be a pretty good hit for you guys you'd think. Let's hope it's on to something for OH. looks like you guys would do well too. maybe baro can tell us what the rgem is sniffing. The differences are pretty amazing between it and the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Angela Buchman just had 6.3" for indy. i like her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I cant read those damn b/w maps.. EDIT: NVM I figured it out lol. its in mm...i've never tried to figure it out, besides it only goes to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like you guys would do well too. maybe baro can tell us what the rgem is sniffing. The differences are pretty amazing between it and the nam... It at least gives us a little love. But I'm usually less than impressed with the RGEM's performance. Have to think the NAM is much more likely for here, 0.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its in mm...i've never tried to figure it out, besides it only goes to 48 Safe bet the GGEM will still give us a pretty good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Angela Buchman just had 6.3" for indy. i like her. She'll probably be wrong, but she's hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 is the NAO trending negative as we get closer to this event? Is that contributing to this wave going so far south before it heads NE, or is the confluence left over near the great lakes forcing it south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I tend to not like the pattern we've been in for a while. This is not the nice pattern for big snows in the great lakes and mid mississippi valley region. These PAC NW lows usually just keep dropping E-SE ward and don't turn the corner or get a chance to phase until they get to around the East Coast. Had this Southern Wave shooting along looked a little stronger and had that energy diving in from the Pac. NW we probably would have had a shot at a colossal storm for the Southern Midwest and Ohio Valley. All this being said, I wouldn't write it off just yet for you folks down that way. There is still somewhat of a shot that the models are not handling everything completely correct just yet. If some of the energy can dig and give the Southern stream a bit more "umpf" as it were, then we could have a pretty decent system. That said I would be really watching this over in the Pa/Wv/Va/Md/ area and points Northeast from there. This pattern has lent to the freak snows a couple of times in the deep South and a couple impressive snows in the Northeast and I really don't see that same/similar pattern breaking down at all for at least another month. Folks in Mo, Southern IL, Southern In, Ky should have a few more systems to watch. What concerns me is we might have a bit of a pattern change next week sometime, which could send a system through my neck of the woods. But it will happen during a transitional timeframe and that spells slop/mixy precip here and not a big snow. Then we go back to more clippers and send the primary storm track back far to the South again. Eventually as we get into say the second week of February or so we should start to see a bit of a retrograde to the pattern I believe, and the midwest/great lakes/upper ohio valley should see a much stormier pattern again. But just my thoughts on how I see the rest of met. Winter going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 She'll probably be wrong, but she's hot. i wouldn't care if she said 0". the world needs more Angela Buchmans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here's the color for you black and white whiners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 looks like you guys would do well too. maybe baro can tell us what the rgem is sniffing. The differences are pretty amazing between it and the nam... The reg GEM is sniffing a perfect phase and a far more impressive southern stream wave. It really looks a lot like the old NAM runs which phased perfectly and had a stronger southern wave and a good GOM fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 is the NAO trending negative as we get closer to this event? Is that contributing to this wave going so far south before it heads NE, or is the confluence left over near the great lakes forcing it south? It peaked a couple of days ago, and looks to be on its way back into negative territory soon...before going back up towards the last week of January. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 here's the color for you black and white whiners now if that sucker would just go NE and bring that heavy band through, we'd be set lol. Highly, wait, HIGHLY unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 RGEM better watch it or the Euro will send it to it room without supper lol. Looks like old GGEM runs, I suspect that is where it is getting the sampling for its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i wouldn't care if she said 0". the world needs more Angela Buchmans. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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