baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 that was done by one of the mets on this board\ SouthlandWx i believe, he used to live in Upstate new york Haha I didn't know that. One of my friends just showed it to me. Yeah I know Southland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OT, but if anyone wants a good laugh, watch this. GFS explained. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=JmH56ypfFeA The end is hilarious. BTW the GFS is a terrific global model--I just found this video hilarious. lol. it was funny. Piece of poop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol nice video. Chris Bradley says 3-6, but no map until 11pm with specifics At least he explained the whole watch situation and criteria again. Gosh that is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol nice video. Chris Bradley says 3-6, but no map until 11pm with specifics At least he explained the whole watch situation and criteria again. Gosh that is annoying. OT Chris Bradley years ago used to do the weather up here in Detroit, I got to meet him once when I was like 10, he came to our elementary school. He is a good forecaster. /OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WTF kind of video is that. That was really weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OT Chris Bradley years ago used to do the weather up here in Detroit, I got to meet him once when I was like 10, he came to our elementary school. He is a good forecaster. /OT Yes he is. He's a very likable met. At least he can talk unlike Jym Ganahl the kook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not looking for anything in northern IL out of this one.. That was clear several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well time to punt for here, relatively speaking. Earlier I was riding high and thinking 2-5" might be doable, but that has since evaporated on the majority of guidance. Probability based snowfall for LAF: 1": 75% 2": 20% 3": 5% My intrigue level remains for the folks out in MO, where the front running and then "system" snow overlaps. MCI, JLN, and STL are places I think that could/will do well. Any banding will most likely help and enhance totals in localized spots out that way. Thinking out loud with some numbers in those areas: MCI: 4-6" JLN: 3-5" STL: 4-8" As for the rest of the region, east of MO, it'll be primarily 2-4", 3-5" type snows I believe. PAH, EVV, BMG, IND, SDF, LEX, CVG, CMH, DAY, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OT Chris Bradley years ago used to do the weather up here in Detroit, I got to meet him once when I was like 10, he came to our elementary school. He is a good forecaster. /OT Yeah, only been here since Sept. but he seems really good. How long has he been in Columbus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well time to punt for here, relatively speaking. Earlier I was riding high and thinking 2-5" might be doable, but that has since evaporated on the majority of guidance. Probability based snowfall for LAF: 1": 75% 2": 20% 3": 5% My intrigue level remains for the folks out in MO, where the front running and then "system" snow overlaps. MCI, JLN, and STL are places I think that could/will do well. Any banding will most likely help and enhance totals in localized spots out that way. Thinking out loud with some numbers in those areas: MCI: 4-6" JLN: 3-5" STL: 4-8" As for the rest of the region, east of MO, it'll be primarily 2-4", 3-5" type snows I believe. PAH, EVV, BMG, IND, SDF, LEX, CVG, CMH, DAY, etc. Yeah, Springfield, MO is going with 2-5" but if the NAM instability and banding is realized then areas near 6 are possible. NAM is warmer than the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah, Springfield, MO is going with 2-5" but if the NAM instability and banding is realized then areas near 6 are possible. NAM is warmer than the GFS though. I certainly don't think it hurts to go middle-ground on this system between the two sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well time to punt for here, relatively speaking. Earlier I was riding high and thinking 2-5" might be doable, but that has since evaporated on the majority of guidance. Probability based snowfall for LAF: 1": 75% 2": 20% 3": 5% My intrigue level remains for the folks out in MO, where the front running and then "system" snow overlaps. MCI, JLN, and STL are places I think that could/will do well. Any banding will most likely help and enhance totals in localized spots out that way. Thinking out loud with some numbers in those areas: MCI: 4-6" JLN: 3-5" STL: 4-8" As for the rest of the region, east of MO, it'll be primarily 2-4", 3-5" type snows I believe. PAH, EVV, BMG, IND, SDF, LEX, CVG, CMH, DAY, etc. You could've at least waited until 00z. I think 2-5" is still doable. Remember this from earlier I woke up this morning expecting to make a pretty confident call but needless to say confidence has gone down. I think there's a danger of getting suckered in too much and assuming the trend will continue. Can't tell you how many times I've seen this type of model movement, then the bleeding stops and sometimes it tries to trend better at the last minute. One thing we should still have are above average ratios, which may not start out all that impressive but should trend better through the event. 15:1 event average is looking ok right now so then the question becomes how much precip do we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I would wait until the 0z Thursday runs before giving up on something "big", but when the ECMWF run after run says no, you have to listen, just like I hope it starts showing something good for the 25thish time system in the next 3 days. Eh, it's time to fold 'em for LAF. GFS doesn't even drop an inch here and the NAM is whacked. Plus like you said, the Euro remains steadfast. Still, it will be a nice storm for some...maybe not a slobber knocker for all involved...but nice enough. The 25th system? I'll pass. I spent too much time on this storm that'll barely dust the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I would wait until the 0z Thursday runs before giving up on something "big", but when the ECMWF run after run says no, you have to listen, just like I hope it starts showing something good for the 25thish time system in the next 3 days. So basically wait and see how the radar looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You could've at least waited until 00z. I think 2-5" is still doable. Remember this from earlier You're a much more level headed (and smarter) weather hobbyist than I am, so I give you a world of credit for still sticking with your guns. But I'm a hack, and turn tail and run at the first sign of trouble. That being said, I'll stick with my probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Models have trended less for eastern nebraska, but before i raise the white flag, ill wait until the 0z models come in. *18/12z gfs didnt give us anything today and we got a good 1/4 inch of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 You're a much more level headed (and smarter) weather hobbyist than I am, so I give you a world of credit for still sticking with your guns. But I'm a hack, and turn tail and run at the first sign of trouble. That being said, I'll stick with my probabilities. Well, there are signs of trouble but I guess it depends on what the expectations are. Is the 00z NAM from last night gonna have a hard time verifying? I'd say so. We're in that transition zone where it could either be 1-2" or more like 3-5". At this point it's too close to call imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Eh, it's time to fold 'em for LAF. GFS doesn't even drop an inch here and the NAM is whacked. Plus like you said, the Euro remains steadfast. Still, it will be a nice storm for some...maybe not a slobber knocker for all involved...but nice enough. The 25th system? I'll pass. I spent too much time on this storm that'll barely dust the ground here. Don't go all Alek on us.. How many times have we had systems over perform for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, there are signs of trouble but I guess it depends on what the expectations are. Is the 00z NAM from last night gonna have a hard time verifying? I'd say so. We're in that transition zone where it could either be 1-2" or more like 3-5". At this point it's too close to call imo. Well again, a level headed response. I think what hurts us, is part 1 if you will, has vanished on the models this far east. Now we're waiting on part 2 from the system that rides the boundary to deliver. All along that's been a 1-3" type scenario, which is my thinking right now. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Don't go all Alek on us.. lol, you know me. Optimism outside 48 hours, pessimism inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol, you know me. Optimism outside 48 hours, pessimism inside 48 hours. We've done well a few times that way. Maybe that's the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We've done well a few times that way. Maybe that's the key. Can't mess with success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes he is. He's a very likable met. At least he can talk unlike Jym Ganahl the kook lol....man you can't stand JG. Actually when i watched those youtube vids of him acting like an arse, i lost a bit of respect for him too. Those were just....bizarre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Last night's 00z NAM was definitely the high point for northern Illinois with this event. Been all downhill since lol. A few more inches would have been nice, but at least we added some new snow cover yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 lol....man you can't stand JG. Actually when i watched those youtube vids of him acting like an arse, i lost a bit of respect for him too. Those were just....bizarre Don't get me wrong, Ill watch and see what he has to say, but the guy is odd. And drugs ate his brains away.. on a positive note the 18z gfs bumped up totals a bit on bufkit.. on a bad note I've got a killer headache that won't go away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think Jym is a good met...probably the best for central OH. That being said, I can easily see Jym handing the baton over to Chris Bradly whenever he retires or jumps the WCMH ship (or is he going to be the Jimmy Crum of weather???). Chris is a decent met who is a treat to watch when a storm is brewing. I'm still sticking with my 3"-5" call for CMH metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 LSX - St. Louis Columbia MO (COU): 13.0" (+3.4") St. Louis MO (STL): 12.0" (+1.9") That is about to up a lot. If STL finishes Jan with 20+ inches, we will get 30 this year and who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think Jym is a good met...probably the best for central OH. That being said, I can easily see Jym handing the baton over to Chris Bradly whenever he retires or jumps the WCMH ship (or is he going to be the Jimmy Crum of weather???). Chris is a decent met who is a treat to watch when a storm is brewing. I'm still sticking with my 3"-5" call for CMH metro. No, sorry I disagree. Chris Bradley is by far the best met in central ohio. And no way Chris leaves wbns. When Chris was at wsyx, they had the best ratings. Now that he went to wbns they have the best. They have 2 very respectable mets in chris and mike.. Wbns has ganahl and mcpeek. Gelber was okay but he's rarely on anymore. But imo there is no comparison in ganahland bradley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 In my amateur opinion the RUC looks more organized then then nam tomorrow. Def looks like it might dig a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 After this, the snow cover in the US will be replenished to a huge area again. and then possibly even more snow cover from clippers and another system. Then the Euro has another one after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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