baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It was a snippet of the entire relative portion of the AFD below. I thought it was a little funny, considering again, Chicago is above normal to date with snowfall. But that's a dead horse topic I wish not to relive. . No I agree, good humor from them and a good way to take it. I was just surprised since the public has access to it--and snowfall can be a hazardous event in many ways--maybe not the most prudent thing to say but maybe there are also a lot of other fellow snow lovers in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z nam bufkit still spits out .48 my way with 15:1 ratios. 7" CMH gets 6.6" with .40 liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No I agree, good humor from them and a good way to take it. I was just surprised since the public has access to it--and snowfall can be a hazardous event in many ways--maybe not the most prudent thing to say but maybe there are also a lot of other fellow snow lovers in the area I would assume only TV mets, OEM's, and the like actually read those things. Well other than the weenies (myself and others on here) that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sorry, I was looking at H7 there. H5, meh, it looks similar to the 12z. trough looks a little sharper and deeper than 12z and the precip shield is oriented more sw to ne. edit: im self inflicting a :weenie:on myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm sure that was just a snippet of a larger discussion. I kind of like it. It demonstrates that a professionally trained scientist can love snow as much as the lowliest weenie. No trust me I thought it was funny too--and I knew that wasn't the whole discussion. Just think if they liked ice storms and they mentioned they were sad the ice wasn't coming. I did see a discussion a long time ago where the office mentioned they were unhappy the severe weather may miss the area and what eventually happen was destructive storms passed right through the region. They got flak for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 For LAF and that region probably nothing special. Of course short-lived mesoscale bands can be expected with any rapidly developing system, but it does seem the best persistent mesoscale banding threat will be farther S and E after the phase. From an IPV standpoint, what the NAM and all models are doing is triggering the development of the upper level cold front down towards the surface after the phase. You can see that in the 500 hpoa vorticity fields from around 51-66 hours as the height fields rapidly respond (increased shear vorticity as wind fields rapidly strengthen) to an increasing thermal gradient as the tropopause lowers. In short--the best banding will be along the developing low level cold front as frontogenesis develops. Most of that activity will probably be in KY and just S of you--aka southern IN Thanks. Could allow some areas to overperform at least on an isolated basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I would assume only TV mets, OEM's, and the like actually read those things. Well other than the weenies (myself and others on here) that is. Actually you would be surprised how much the public reads them. The discussion has many ways changed the last 20 years with the internet from a simple office-office communication to something available as part of the actual forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IND AFD. Not a bad read...a little short, but to the point. Thanks. Could allow some areas to overperform at least on an isolated basis. My friend just started out at IND. I will ask her what she thinks and if she had anything to do with that forecast. Overall they seem pretty spot on--although I can't tell where they are placing the banding based on their wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still wondering where the cold is coming from to make the baroclinic zone so far south. Is the weak ne low reinforcing the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 out to 18 on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More NCEP problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LMK went WSW as well. Not too surprised by this... they went with 3-5" across their northern area. I'm still thinking SDF gets ~5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More NCEP problems. out to 30 on my end. edit: make that 42 its a little stronger and maybe a tad north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Does anyone know yet whether or not the system is onshore and or if it got into modeling? For those up this way wondering.. That stuff crossing the lakes is what basically screws us from the system coming north. This closer in does not help either. See the SE coast. What they both do is keep ridging ahead of the system in check which keeps the system further south as it passes us by to the south and east. Thus lose that crap and we have ourselves a better chance of a snowstorm up this way. Unless the storm can find a way to phase alot quicker. Chances of either happening i think are slim at best. Yeah models can be off a bit but i don't see them being that far off. JMHO yeah nice analyisis Harry always some fly in the ointment lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 More NCEP problems. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_lu.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep..../model_lu.shtml Working ok now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ncep site does keep messing up though. Have the times Im having to put in manually. wth is the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 @48 it looks almost identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At least for central IL and central IN, 18z GFS is south with QPF compared to the 12z run. Starting to get that feeling I'll be in salvage mode (1" of snow) very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ncep site does keep messing up though. Have the times Im having to put in manually. wth is the deal my ncep just went from 48 hrs out, to only 30 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 out to 18 on the 18z gfs. Why do we analyze the 18z models so much? No wonder NCEPs server is crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 At least for central IL and central IN, 18z GFS is south with QPF compared to the 12z run. Starting to get that feeling I'll be in salvage mode (1" of snow) very soon. Balderdash. The GFS is the low outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Balderdash. The GFS is the low outlier right now. I just picked up a towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 qpf actually went north a bit for central ohio at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not looking for anything in northern IL out of this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 qpf actually went north a bit for central ohio at least. And thats a good thing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OT, but if anyone wants a good laugh, watch this. GFS explained. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=JmH56ypfFeA The end is hilarious. BTW the GFS is a terrific global model--I just found this video hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 STL went conservative considering the lowest output is 5 inches and the average is 6.5 with a max of 7-9. Guess they think something is overdone some where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not looking for anything in northern IL out of this one.. Don't see much happening around here at all. Flurries here and there and that's about all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OT, but if anyone wants a good laugh, watch this. GFS explained. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=JmH56ypfFeA The end is hilarious. BTW the GFS is a terrific global model--I just found this video hilarious. that was done by one of the mets on this board\ SouthlandWx i believe, he used to live in Upstate new york Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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