Harry Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 True, true. It's really the NAM against the world, and the 18z Run took a good step towards the others I think. Still, a really good hit for KC to STL on east through CVG. Does anyone know yet whether or not the system is onshore and or if it got into modeling? For those up this way wondering.. That stuff crossing the lakes is what basically screws us from the system coming north. This closer in does not help either. See the SE coast. What they both do is keep ridging ahead of the system in check which keeps the system further south as it passes us by to the south and east. Thus lose that crap and we have ourselves a better chance of a snowstorm up this way. Unless the storm can find a way to phase alot quicker. Chances of either happening i think are slim at best. Yeah models can be off a bit but i don't see them being that far off. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Also goes to show how tiny changes in the height field can equate to massive eventual differences when positive feedback is in effect. A slightly weaker phase results in large differences in the end. Expect an even weaker phase on the NAM for 0Z--don't attack me here--but I wouldn't expect the 0Z NAM to bring any miracles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 well damn, i would imagine iln might pull the trigger unless they hold for timing issues Hope they wait, or they may get burned. If anything send out an advisory. This isnt wsw criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Color me surprised by this out of IND.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 350 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... .AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL BECOME VERY SLIPPERY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. RUSH HOURS WILL BE AFFECTED. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 6 INCHES * TIMING: HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY 7 AM TO 7PM TIME FRAME. * OTHER IMPACTS: WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. I probably would have left out everyone north of IND, but I'm not one to criticize their expertise. Maybe the blowing/drifting potential is part of the WSW thought, despite lower amounts up here. I haven't seen their AFD yet, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Also goes to show how tiny changes in the height field can equate to massive eventual differences when positive feedback is in effect. A slightly weaker phase results in large differences in the end. Expect an even weaker phase on the NAM for 0Z--don't attack me here--but I wouldn't expect the 0Z NAM to bring any miracles. Fine by me, then the northern vort will be progged to ride straight threw here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Also goes to show how tiny changes in the height field can equate to massive eventual differences when positive feedback is in effect. A slightly weaker phase results in large differences in the end. Expect an even weaker phase on the NAM for 0Z--don't attack me here--but I wouldn't expect the 0Z NAM to bring any miracles. And last night you were talking apocolypse. I see it this way. Models trended away last night, whos to say they dont trend back. It's slim, but could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And last night you were talking apocolypse. I see it this way. Models trended away last night, whos to say they dont trend back. It's slim, but could happen. No they likely won't Dilly. I am just saying there are things one can track and there are reasons why all this happens--and those reasons are quite clear that this won't be as good as it could have been--but it will still be a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WSW up for the southern part of the ILN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And last night you were talking apocolypse. I see it this way. Models trended away last night, whos to say they dont trend back. It's slim, but could happen. No I said the NAM was apocalyptic in its depction of events, but also said there is a fair probability that won't happen. Meteorology/forecasting is a game of probabilities and threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Does anyone know yet whether or not the system is onshore and or if it got into modeling? For those up this way wondering.. That stuff crossing the lakes is what basically screws us from the system coming north. This closer in does not help either. See the SE coast. What they both do is keep ridging ahead of the system in check which keeps the system further south as it passes us by to the south and east. Thus lose that crap and we have ourselves a better chance of a snowstorm up this way. Unless the storm can find a way to phase alot quicker. Chances of either happening i think are slim at best. Yeah models can be off a bit but i don't see them being that far off. JMHO spot on Harry....there's always something f*cking with our ridging in front this season. I believe the last storm had some damn rogue piece traveling along the gulf coast states as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 spot on Harry....there's always something f*cking with our ridging in front this season. I believe the last storm had some damn rogue piece traveling along the gulf coast states as well. Yep good call by Harry. And yeah the last storm had the deep South snowstorm frontrunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 No I said the NAM was apocalyptic in its depction of events, but also said there is a fair probability that won't happen. Meteorology/forecasting is a game of probabilities and threats. for the record my first line was supposed to have ended with lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WSW up for the southern part of the ILN CWA. yup, haven't read a discussion but i bet it's a criteria-based difference again (between the southern and northern counties), like the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 iln pulls the trigger for sw counties.. not for you though buckeye INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET... MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE... LANCASTER...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO... WEST UNION...PIKETON...PORTSMOUTH 357 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY...THEN TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEPOSIT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL BRING DRIFTING SNOW AND COLD WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WWA up already for central IL, basically along and south of a line from Havana to Danville. Seems a bit early for an advisory issuance, alas they must be confident. Relevant portion of their AFD BTW OUR PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL FORWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SUPPORTED ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND THE TIME HAS COME TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN MORE SPECIFICITY IN THE FORECAST. A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH MIXING RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 G/KG DURING THE PERIOD OF LIFT. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMIC FORCING IS MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE RRQ OF THE LEAD JET STREAK IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME JET COUPLING NOTED AS THE WAVE COMES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. MOST MODELS ALSO SUGGEST FAIRLY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND THIS MAKES IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR A HEAVY SNOW BAND. IN ADDITION...DURING THE EXPECTED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP...SATURATED...ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND -10C. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TEMPERATURE FOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW FLAKE GROWTH...IT IS STILL FAIRLY FAVORABLE. SO...WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HEAVIEST IN THE SOUTH/LIGHTEST IN THE NORTH...BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF A SCHUYLER/VERMILION COUNTY LINE...STARTING AS EARLY AS 00Z THURSDAY AND ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE ADVISORY NEEDING TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND/OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING ACROSS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH...BUT THIS ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FIRST STEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WWA up already for central IL, basically along and south of a line from Havana to Danville. Seems a bit early for an advisory issuance, alas they must be confident. That seems really early for an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That seems really early for an advisory. It is likely STL will go with a Winter Storm Watch, so maybe they wanted something to fit in with it being next to there counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 WWA up already for central IL, basically along and south of a line from Havana to Danville. Seems a bit early for an advisory issuance, alas they must be confident. Headline wise, this is a high confidence event in some regards. The main uncertainty has lied in the amount of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Once again..WSW..one county below us..Almost laughable at this point!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Baro, do you have any thoughts on the potential for banded precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IND AFD. Not a bad read...a little short, but to the point. .SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THU 06Z - FRI 06Z. DYNAMICS HAVE BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH LATEST RUNS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/EURO. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND THU 00Z...AND WILL REALLY GET GOING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AROUND THU 06Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE THUR 12-00Z TIME FRAME. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING IN THE MID LEVELS MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED AREAS OF OVER 6 INCHES WHERE THE BEST BANDING SETS UP. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CUT OFF ABRUPTLY AROUND FRI 03Z. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND FRI 06Z ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT...BUT MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE OUT OF THE AREA. SO...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Once again..WSW..one county below us..Almost laughable at this point!! LOL, I was waiting for you to chime in Steve lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LOL, I was waiting for you to chime in Steve lol Just tired of being missed continuously!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Merzlock (LOT) throwing in some jabs. THE 18Z NAM IS IN AND TAKES THIS ENERGY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WELL...AS TIBERIUS WOULD SAY...EX NIHILO NIHIL FIT. JUST PAR FOR THE COURSE IN A WINTER OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Baro, do you have any thoughts on the potential for banded precip? For LAF and that region probably nothing special. Of course short-lived mesoscale bands can be expected with any rapidly developing system, but it does seem the best persistent mesoscale banding threat will be farther S and E after the phase. From an IPV standpoint, what the NAM and all models are doing is triggering the development of the upper level cold front down towards the surface after the phase. You can see that in the 500 hpoa vorticity fields from around 51-66 hours as the height fields rapidly respond (increased shear vorticity as wind fields rapidly strengthen) to an increasing thermal gradient as the tropopause lowers. In short--the best banding will be along the developing low level cold front as frontogenesis develops. Most of that activity will probably be in KY and just S of you--aka southern IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 48 hour RGEM. Don't like the disjointed look at H5, with souther s/w outrunning the northern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Merzlock (LOT) throwing in some jabs. THE 18Z NAM IS IN AND TAKES THIS ENERGY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WELL...AS TIBERIUS WOULD SAY...EX NIHILO NIHIL FIT. JUST PAR FOR THE COURSE IN A WINTER OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED. Yikes--that was a discussion? If so that is surprising they would say that publicly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 48 hour RGEM. Don't like the disjointed look at H5, with souther s/w outrunning the northern one. Sorry, I was looking at H7 there. H5, meh, it looks similar to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yikes--that was a discussion? If so that is surprising they would say that publicly. It was a snippet of the entire relative portion of the AFD below. I thought it was a little funny, considering again, Chicagoland (especially the western and south/southwestern suburbs) is above normal to date with snowfall. But that's a dead horse topic I wish not to relive. MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEM NOW MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL BEEMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING WELL TO S OF AREA WED NIGHT-THURSDAY. WITH TROUGH BECOMING POSITIVELY SHEARED WITH TIME...AS NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES FROM SRN CANADA...SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...INITIALLY DECENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH THE KC AREA...BUT SHOULD FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE MS RVR WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED TO LAY OVER TO A WSW-ENE ORIENTATION WITH ANY NOTABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT LAYING OUT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THUS AM HARD PRESSED TO EVEN KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF FA ALONG/N OF I-80. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...INTO EAST CENTRAL IL/W CENTRAL IN PORTIONS OF FA...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT-THUR MORNING PERIOD...WITH FCST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS...PERHAPS...SUPPORTING AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES. MOST OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ONLY A MID/HIGH LEVEL OVC WITH THIS. THE 18Z NAM IS IN AND TAKES THIS ENERGY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WELL...AS TIBERIUS WOULD SAY...EX NIHILO NIHIL FIT. JUST PAR FOR THE COURSE IN A WINTER OF MISSED OPPORTUNITIES AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yikes--that was a discussion? If so that is surprising they would say that publicly. I'm sure that was just a snippet of a larger discussion. I kind of like it. It demonstrates that a professionally trained scientist can love snow as much as the lowliest weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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