dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z Nam actually looks better for us buckeye compared to the 12z. And I could actually see the NAM get stronger on tonights run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 .25 it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Close to .75" for, Frizz.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Funny, as much as a step back as the 18z NAM looks like at the surface, I'm actually liking H5 more than I did at 12z. Looks like the northern stream is digging more. Just comparing the 18 and 12z runs, at 6z Friday, the surface low may be a little better developed/precip shield a little farther northwest. Probably just noise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z Nam actually looks better for us buckeye compared to the 12z. And I could actually see the NAM get stronger on tonights run.. well either the nam or euro is gonna bust.... wish i was rooting for the nam to bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18 is trying to phase somewhat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 if you're having problems try this site http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=18&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false## Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 .25 it is A minor step in the wrong direction for us, compared to the 12z run...but probably closer to the truth of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just comparing the 18 and 12z runs, at 6z Friday, the surface low may be a little better developed/precip shield a little farther northwest. Probably just noise really. Even if it is an improvement, it might not make a difference. The NAM could continue to trend better until it looks like (insert blizzard of your choice here), but if the other models don't come along, especially the EURO, it's hard to take any threat it shows too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 SNE is going to have a sick snow pack if the NAM is right and all snow.. CT_Blizz would be nearing 4 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even if it is an improvement, it might not make a difference. The NAM could continue to trend better until it looks like (insert blizzard of your choice here), but if the other models don't come along, especially the EURO, it's hard to take any threat it shows too seriously. the nam has scored coupes before....but it's rare. Hard to ignore the rock solid boring solution of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even if it is an improvement, it might not make a difference. The NAM could continue to trend better until it looks like (insert blizzard of your choice here), but if the other models don't come along, especially the EURO, it's hard to take any threat it shows too seriously. True, true. It's really the NAM against the world, and the 18z Run took a good step towards the others I think. Still, a really good hit for KC to STL on east through CVG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the nam has scored coupes before....but it's rare. Hard to ignore the rock solid boring solution of the euro. Lets not forget the 944mb low it initialized with yesterday. After that I just wonder if todays or last nights run had errors as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe somebody with a little more expertise on 300mb maps can correct me if I'm wrong, but what strikes me as a reason this storm remains progressive, even on the NAM, is the lack of strong jet energy diving into the base of the trough I believe that's an essential ingridient for slowing the trough and allowing it to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even if it is an improvement, it might not make a difference. The NAM could continue to trend better until it looks like (insert blizzard of your choice here), but if the other models don't come along, especially the EURO, it's hard to take any threat it shows too seriously. The height field downstream is a little too flat for my liking. It's gonna be difficult for this thing to not try to slip east toward the coast. Doesn't mean it can't do some damage before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 True, true. It's really the NAM against the world, and the 18z Run took a good step towards the others I think. Still, a really good hit for KC to STL on east through CVG. not sure about that....looks pretty close to it's 12z run. Not sure it took a step away from that. If it's still doing this at tonites runs, i might, might, start to slightly believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Lets not forget the 944mb low it initialized with yesterday. After that I just wonder if todays or last nights run had errors as well. Uh, wasn't that just a plotting error on Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Uh, wasn't that just a plotting error on Plymouth? lol...i was wondering what dilly was talking about. Now i remember that....bismark killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Uh, wasn't that just a plotting error on Plymouth? Couldve been, I didnt read anything about it.. Just seen a lot of people posting it on here as well as other places.. google "944mb low" youll see what I am talking about lol edit: actually cant find the pages I seen it on last night.. odd. Ill give myself a double bunner :weenie: At least Im not like Buckeye and sticking to my guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 not sure about that....looks pretty close to it's 12z run. Not sure it took a step away from that. If it's still doing this at tonites runs, i might, might, start to slightly believe. Maybe not on the larger scale, but it was a step back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not sure about that....looks pretty close to it's 12z run. Not sure it took a step away from that. If it's still doing this at tonites runs, i might, might, start to slightly believe. Well if you compare QPF fields between the 12 and 18z runs, note IL and IN, it went a good ways south. Much more like the GFS and Euro IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Couldve been, I didnt read anything about it.. Just seen a lot of people posting it on here as well as other places.. google "944mb low" youll see what I am talking about lol yeah it was just a graphical map error at that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe not on the larger scale, but it was a step back here. meh, precip fields, strenght and extents, jump around. I was referring to the H5 and 850 maps. very very similar. Could even make a case that the h5 looked a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There was good potential with this storm yesterday, but I think a moderate storm is now likely as the globals stopped the amplification trend last night at 0Z of the northern stream (it will be coming in more S-SE instead of nearly due S) after 2 days straight of slow amplification trends, and the western wave will only partially phase. Were the SREF models to score another coup with continued amplification like they did last storm, this could have been much bigger. As is, it will probably eventually be a step below the 18Z NAM as it will probably take another step back with the phase--but it will still be a good moderate event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Pretty surprised by this out IND.. Hopefully not the kiss of death for us.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 350 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... .AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL BECOME VERY SLIPPERY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. RUSH HOURS WILL BE AFFECTED. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 6 INCHES * TIMING: HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY 7 AM TO 7PM TIME FRAME. * OTHER IMPACTS: WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Much further south with the northern wave, and a strong 2nd wave... well damn bring that northern wave down a bit or a stronger 2nd wave and we are looking at 7-10 inches here. I will expect the name to be to wet and scale back .45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The height field downstream is a little too flat for my liking. It's gonna be difficult for this thing to not try to slip east toward the coast. Doesn't mean it can't do some damage before that. Same problem exists upstream. Probably want that E PAC ridge to have more amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Color me surprised by this out of IND.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 350 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... .AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL BECOME VERY SLIPPERY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. RUSH HOURS WILL BE AFFECTED. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 6 INCHES * TIMING: HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY 7 AM TO 7PM TIME FRAME. * OTHER IMPACTS: WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. well damn, i would imagine iln might pull the trigger unless they hold for timing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Color me surprised by this out of IND.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 350 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... .AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL BECOME VERY SLIPPERY DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. RUSH HOURS WILL BE AFFECTED. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 6 INCHES * TIMING: HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY 7 AM TO 7PM TIME FRAME. * OTHER IMPACTS: WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Yeah I'm surprised, especially for the northern areas where this thing is hanging by a thread. Then again, it's only a watch and I would expect eventual conversion to advisory at least for part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah I'm surprised, especially for the northern areas where this thing is hanging by a thread. Then again, it's only a watch and I would expect eventual conversion to advisory at least for part of the area. I'm guessing it's more of an attention getter for people to take note.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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