dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 amazing how well that matches up with the advisories...lol...coincidence. I really be surprised if ILN didn't fill in Delaware, Union etc. If they don't now, i bet they do in the morning as a nowcast. I know, I thought that was funny too. But on radar it looks stronger than the models showed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know, I thought that was funny too. But on radar it looks stronger than the models showed it. it does look good but there is a lot of virga...but Ariel coverage is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I like 1-2" for my final call. I'll give you the overperformance thing, but it can't last forever. IND is going with 2-3". Haven't checked to see what Chad is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know, I thought that was funny too. But on radar it looks stronger than the models showed it. meh, maybe. I don't know the nam seems to have a good handle on placement of current precip....might be too slow, but other than that the extent north and south is pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like SDF is gunning for around 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Kansas City getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I see LSX pulled the trigger for a warning for STL proper, first one of the winter i do believe, here's my ideas for Central/SE IL, the Evansville metro and the St Louis area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 IND is going with 2-3". Haven't checked to see what Chad is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 338 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK 925MB-850MB WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND AS IT DOES...DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE LOW...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS MIGHT LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS TO A DEGREE. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAINTING AN AREA OF .25-.35 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT WHILE OVERALL OMEGA WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG...IT WILL BE DEEP AND LAST FOR A GOOD 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION THE DENDRICTIC GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO QUITE DEEP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EFFICIENT LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 1. ONE THING GOING AGAINST THE SNOW ACCUMULATION THOUGH WILL BE THAT THE BULK OF IT WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO A DEGREE. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN OUR THINKING FOR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER NORTH FROM DARKE COUNTY OHIO OVER TO DELAWARE COUNTY OHIO. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT HEADLINES. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS 8H TEMPS DROP INTO THE -15 TO -20 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING...ONLY EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS WILL PUSH WIND CHILL FACTORS DOWN INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Champaign-Decatur stations are going with a 4-6 band in the I-70 corridor up to about US 36, thinking 2-5" for the Champaign-Urbana area, same for Decatur. Don't get the Springfield station yet as my cable isn't installed in my new apartment in Charleston, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Kansas City getting hammered Nice. I can't wait for that tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 ^That January 20th sun angle is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That is way too far north, and a tad strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ^That January 20th sun angle is nasty. If youre talking about the iln update, I was thinking the same exact thing. That may be the dumbest line Ive ever read for a mid january afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Ohio Wx Lover Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If youre talking about the iln update, I was thinking the same exact thing. That may be the dumbest line Ive ever read for a mid january afd Haha I didn`t even catch that when I first skimmed the disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I kind of like that map. That gives me 7-8" At least it doesn't appear dry air will be a problem. Its been spitting little flurries here off and on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z gfs appears to be a tad north and a tad stronger. EDIT: Maybe not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 New ILN map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z gfs appears to be a tad north and a tad stronger. EDIT: Maybe not.. yea, i'd say a tad south with the precip in ohio, not by much 20 miles or less. Looks like the nam and gfs are honing in on one another. I'll stick with my call but i would put the heaviest axis thru ohio from just north of cincy, thru circleville to cambridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 New ILN map lol, did they look at my map or something? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea, i'd say a tad south with the precip in ohio, not by much 20 miles or less. Looks like the nam and gfs are honing in on one another. I'll stick with my call but i would put the heaviest axis thru ohio from just north of cincy, thru circleville to cambridge. im not sure how well models do 24hrs out to be honest, I normally wouldve stopped looking at models within the 24hr time frame, but not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ^That January 20th sun angle is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 some qpf numbers from the 18z gfs CMH .23 ZZV .24 CVG .34 PIT .31 IND .21 LAF .12 CLE .17 Better hope that isnt correct or many areas will need to rely on 20:1 ratios to get to the forecasted totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 75 pages for that ^ Mother nature hates us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 SE ANSELMO 41.60N 99.84W 01/19/2011 M12.0 INCH CUSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 75 pages for that ^ Mother nature hates us. its all relative....as sad as it is, it still has a chance to be our best hit so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 slowing down a bit here but for a couple hours we were getting crushed. fast storm...about 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 some qpf numbers from the 18z gfs CMH .23 ZZV .24 CVG .34 PIT .31 IND .21 LAF .12 CLE .17 Better hope that isnt correct or many areas will need to rely on 20:1 ratios to get to the forecasted totals I think looking at models is over. You can tell by the radar they are underdoing the strength of this. Seems to be a theme so far with storms overproducing and this looks to be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 slowing down a bit here but for a couple hours we were getting crushed. fast storm...about 5-6" what is your location? The one under your name is manhattan EDIT, NVM manhattan, KS.. gotcha.. Kansas city looks to be doing real well with this storm.. Have you over/underperformed compared to what NWS had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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