Stevo6899 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ratios out in nebraska have to be atleast 15:1 It's 11 degrees. Also WSW were just posted for 5-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ratios out in nebraska have to be atleast 15:1 It's 11 degrees. Also WSW were just posted for 5-8 inches probably higher than that at 11 degrees. probably 20:1 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ratios out in nebraska have to be atleast 15:1 It's 11 degrees. Also WSW were just posted for 5-8 inches the ratios here remind me of lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 probably higher than that at 11 degrees. probably 20:1 or better. Remember there are several factors that determine what ratios will be. I've seen mediocre ratios with surface temps in the teens and good ratios with temps near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If warnings are going up now out there, its a good sign that this is overperforming already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Stolen from accuweather: COU .47STL .45 so euro leaves 6-7 inches here. LSX went to Warning for a strip on 70..ends just to my west by about 15 miles...that is fine..my forecast from them will still go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 As expected IND with with a WWA.. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SNOW... VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING: THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. * OTHER IMPACTS: THIS STORM WILL IMPACT BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING RUSH HOUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM AND MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1244 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1243 PM SNOW MANHATTAN 39.18N 96.57W 01/19/2011 M2.0 INCH RILEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER AS OF 11 AM CST. Not bad rates at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So, the county north of me is a WWA and so is Franklin County to my south. But nothing for Delaware??? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Remember there are several factors that determine what ratios will be. I've seen mediocre ratios with surface temps in the teens and good ratios with temps near 30. Isn't it more dependant on 850mb temps? At least out here we are expecting 850s to be in the -9 to -12 range so I thought 18:1 on average seemed good. Probably 14 or 15:1 to start and over 20:1 by the very end so 18:1 on average. That puts us right in the middle of my 4-5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So, the county north of me is a WWA and so is Franklin County to my south. But nothing for Delaware??? LOL I never cared if they issue one. I see what models show and just because they dont issue a watch doesnt mean you'll get anything less lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 HPC has high probability of 4+ here and a chance for 8+. the radar is starting to take shape like the GEM/EURO/GFS. that is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Isn't it more dependant on 850mb temps? At least out here we are expecting 850s to be in the -9 to -12 range so I thought 18:1 on average seemed good. Probably 14 or 15:1 to start and over 20:1 by the very end so 18:1 on average. That puts us right in the middle of my 4-5 range. The depth of the column in the -12 to -18 range is a key factor, but you also want to look at moisture and lift in that zone. The most effective way to assess this is with BUFKIT but if you don't have it, you can get a pretty good idea by looking at forecast soundings and various VV/RH maps. Wind is another factor as it can tend to break up the flakes if it's too strong. IMO, it's fairly easy to tell whether a setup is likely to produce higher than average ratios, but it's harder to pin down an exact number. In a given event, how do we know if it will be 15:1 or 18:1? I'm not sure if there's an answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I made a bold prediction! I saw the QPF from the storm a week ago and many places had around .20qpf and ended up with 4 inches of snow. This is putting out .30-.40 and with that said...........2 inches of snow per .10 means I am going with 5-8 for Cincinnati and less towards Dayton! :arrowhead: :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So, the county north of me is a WWA and so is Franklin County to my south. But nothing for Delaware??? LOL the ones that popped to your north and east are under CLE and PIT jurisdiction. ILN, im sure will update and fill in that gap and add their northern most counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My call for indy having a 200% their avg. snowfall season is looking real good if this winter continues on.. GL to you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the ones that popped to your north and east are under CLE and PIT jurisdiction. ILN, im sure will update and fill in that gap and add their northern most counties. Not so fast. Nam lessens amount for that area. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not so fast. Nam lessens amount for that area. 18z Want waffles with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 My call for indy having a 200% their avg. snowfall season is looking real good if this winter continues on.. GL to you all! That would require 54" at IND. Might be a tall order but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Want waffles with that? I guess I just dont get the joke lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not so fast. Nam lessens amount for that area. 18z amazing how well that matches up with the advisories...lol...coincidence. I really be surprised if ILN didn't fill in Delaware, Union etc. If they don't now, i bet they do in the morning as a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the good thing for cmh is the only part of the nam that has stayed consistent wrt the precip shield is centering it on i-70. If it waivers, it either cuts back or adds to the north or south extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam is wrong because it is way to weak with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't think the NAM is even being considered for this storm because it's been so inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I guess I just dont get the joke lol the nam keeps changing the precip shield....esp for those closer to the edge. ie waffling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ILN did shift the advisory north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_lite_loop.php Gotta say the radar is really come together like the GEM/EURO had depicted. you can see the snow hole in NW MO where the earlier Ruc and NAM had 3-6 inches..you can see the sharper cutoff south..where the GEM/GFS/EURO set up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 the nam keeps changing the precip shield....esp for those closer to the edge. ie waffling Yeah, I'm not saying that minor run to run changes shouldn't be expected, but I think the NAM has been the least consistent model with this event. We're closing in on game time now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, I'm not saying that minor run to run changes shouldn't be expected, but I think the NAM has been the least consistent model with this event. We're closing in on game time now anyway. it seems like a trend to weaken qpf in the 6 and 18z runs...then bumps them back up at 0z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Final call for LAF is 2-4". I think the lower end is more likely than the higher end but I gotta leave the door open for an RGEM type solution. Plus, and this really isn't scientific, but we really haven't underperformed on a snow event this winter. I like 1-2" for my final call. I'll give you the overperformance thing, but it can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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