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January 19-21 MW/GL/OV Storm part 2


Hoosier

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ILN has hoisted a WWA for their northern counties...3"-5" for the advisory area...kinda different than the map they had drawn earlier. :arrowhead:

They already put a warning where the watch was and added a wwa for the row of counties along I-70 from Dayton to Columbus. Surprized they put up the warning so quick. Still think there might be a shift north some with the advisory/warning at some point.

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Hope we can both get a 20-30 shift north in the snowfall amounts. looks like OAX is gonna issue me in a WWA for 3-5 (only forecasting max 3 inches though for me), but just south, 6 inches for a WSW

Both 06z Nam and 06Z GFS give me .23" but different snowfall amouts per Cobb. Cant wait to test to see how 06z models do vs 12z models here in a little while (last set of model runs before event)

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6z ensembles gfs.... I count about 7 members juicier than the op for the ov. After seeing the euro, 6z nam, ggem, and now this, I bet we tick up a bit on qpf for the final adjustments before the nowcasting begins. Maybe another .05-.1?

before I head out here are my final official calls for Ohio:

Findlay(nw OH): .12 (1.8 inches)

Dayton: .40 (6 inches)

Cincy: .45 (6.75 inches)

Columbus: .36 (5.3 inches)

Cleveland (synoptic only): .18 (2.7 inches)

Zanesville(eastern OH): .39 (5.8 inches)

Portsmouth(s. OH): .48 (7.2 inches)

I'm juicier than probably most guidance but I like the small uptick in the latest models. Also these sw to ne i-70 specials can often surprise with heavier banding setting up. im most bullish on sw ohio and southern OH. I also think eastern OH could do better depending on what happens to the low over WV and how quickly it intensifies.

What could go wrong? Dry air and a weaker more south precip shield is probably the biggest potential monkey wrench.

:drunk:

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6z ensembles gfs.... I count about 7 members juicier than the op for the ov. After seeing the euro, 6z nam, ggem, and now this, I bet we tick up a bit on qpf for the final adjustments before the nowcasting begins. Maybe another .05-.1?

before I head out here are my final official calls for Ohio:

Findlay(nw OH): .12 (1.8 inches)

Dayton: .40 (6 inches)

Cincy: .45 (6.75 inches)

Columbus: .36 (5.3 inches)

Cleveland (synoptic only): .18 (2.7 inches)

Zanesville(eastern OH): .39 (5.8 inches)

Portsmouth(s. OH): .48 (7.2 inches)

I'd take that!

The only issue I see is the heavier banding setting up closer to the OH river...still I think even in that scenario CMH would pull off 3"-4". But, I do like the way the models are trending so perhaps we can squeeze out that additional inch or so. :popcorn:

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I'd take that!

The only issue I see is the heavier banding setting up closer to the OH river...still I think even in that scenario CMH would pull off 3"-4". But, I do like the way the models are trending so perhaps we can squeeze out that additional inch or so. :popcorn:

i admit i'm definitely bullish here...which is usually not like me as i tend to take a bit more pessimistic view. I just like these sw systems that ride up just south of the ohio river and precipitate along i-70, especially one that is progged to strengthen vs. weaken. if they surprise it's usually on the positive side.

oh well, if i'm wrong I still got my day job ;)

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i admit i'm definitely bullish here...which is usually not like me as i tend to take a bit more pessimistic view. I just like these sw systems that ride up just south of the ohio river and precipitate along i-70, especially one that is progged to strengthen vs. weaken. if they surprise it's usually on the positive side.

oh well, if i'm wrong I still got my day job ;)

Here's a little more encouragement for you, the 6z RGEM at 48.

06_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

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6z runs have brought LAF have the depths of hell. Well that's putting it too strongly obviously, but at least there's something going on. I'm looking at you NAM. <_<

I'm thinking 1-3" at best.. Was a little more optimistic yesterday, but not looking good.. I'm ready for spring warmth!

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did you mean 'out of' the depths of hell? lol

lol, it's early. :arrowhead:

I'm thinking 1-3" at best.. Was a little more optimistic yesterday, but not looking good.. I'm ready for spring warmth!

Debbie downer.

j/k :P

But yeah 1-3" is the best we can do. Although you'll probably do better than here.

One more cherry picked 6z run. WRF-NMM, which was much further south with the 0z run. Alright, enough optimism from me. :)

hiresw_p48_048l.gif

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best description this morning would be frozen drizzle-encrusted patches

Gotcha. My dads work sent him to CMH for a few weeks, and when he got down there, he said the snow was about the same, maybe a little less...but over the next few days our snowpack upped to about 6" while yours fell to 3" or so. He was very pleased that he was missing deeper snow (he HATES snow). Havent talked to him since, but I suspect he is very happy theres almost no snow left. Will have to give him the news about tomorrow lol.

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