The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z ECMWF... JLN: 0.38" STL: 0.47" EVV: 0.30" SDF: 0.26" CMH: 0.29" PIT: 0.27" THANK YOU, YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Im starting to get P*ssed. Hey mike, when does accuwx initialize the euro. I just got this today, mainly for this purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks Harry and Chicago Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Im starting to get P*ssed. Hey mike, when does accuwx initialize the euro. I just got this today, mainly for this purpose. I read somewhere it's at 3 eastern. You can get the QPF #'s earlier though. If you want the Euro earlier, You want Stormvista, talk to Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Euro's the same ole idea. Maybe it will squeeze out a little more suger. The euro has a very weak southern low and almost loses it and thus why it is the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea I got the qpf numbers, which is why I am getting annoyed. oh well I guess at least i get the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well it ended up wetter than the 12z run so it went in the right direction. 4-6 inches looks like a pretty safe bet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 yea I got the qpf numbers, which is why I am getting annoyed. oh well I guess at least i get the numbers. The stats come out at 1am. Maps are very slow....Probably between 2:30 and 3:00. This is crazy...Nearly all models are converging on 0.30" for CMH. Didn't expect that much agreement tonight...Let's hope for near steady or slightly rising values on tomorrow's runs I had Columbus in 2-4, but my revised map tomorrow will show 3-5. Not a big change though because for specifically Columbus I was going 3-4 inches. May up it to 4-5.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The stats come out at 1am. Maps are very slow....Probably between 2:30 and 3:00. This is crazy...Nearly all models are converging on 0.30" for CMH. Didn't expect that much agreement tonight...Let's hope for near steady or slightly rising values on tomorrow's runs all models went up except for the NAM. Now if it stays around .3 we need to hope for cold temps arouns 20 to get a nice snowfall of 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 better then the NAM , which gives me 0.00 and to think 36hrs ago it gave me 11-13" of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The stats come out at 1am. Maps are very slow....Probably between 2:30 and 3:00. This is crazy...Nearly all models are converging on 0.30" for CMH. Didn't expect that much agreement tonight...Let's hope for near steady or slightly rising values on tomorrow's runs I had Columbus in 2-4, but my revised map tomorrow will show 3-5. Not a big change though because for specifically Columbus I was going 3-4 inches. May up it to 4-5.... Im going to put mine out after 12z tomorrow to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I find it kind of strange that IND has a watch for their entire cwa and expecting areas of 6+ but ILN only for the area with the lower criteria and their numbers are 3-5 inches. I think ILN will add some counties to the watch north of the current watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I find it kind of strange that IND has a watch for their entire cwa and expecting areas of 6+ but ILN only for the area with the lower criteria and their numbers are 3-5 inches. I think ILN will add some counties to the watch north of the current watch. The watch is thinly worded. I wonder though if the watch is based more for the blowing/drifting/travel impacts more so than just total snowfall. Being a daytime storm this will impact travel on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I find it kind of strange that IND has a watch for their entire cwa and expecting areas of 6+ but ILN only for the area with the lower criteria and their numbers are 3-5 inches. I think ILN will add some counties to the watch north of the current watch. its because of the criteria difference. a wsw for the northern iln counties is 6" in a 12hr period I believe. I expect a WWA tomorrow though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 all models went up except for the NAM. Now if it stays around .3 we need to hope for cold temps arouns 20 to get a nice snowfall of 4-6" I was thinking an average ratio around 18:1 with 850s around -10C. That would yield 4.5 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I was thinking an average ratio around 18:1 with 850s around -10C. That would yield 4.5 or 5 inches. just a guess and to keep some excitement flowing, I am betting most models come in around .4 - .45 tomorrow for much of central ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its because of the criteria difference. a wsw for the northern iln counties is 6" in a 12hr period I believe. I expect a WWA tomorrow though.. I know the criteria difference but my point is IND i'm assuming is basically the same criteria wise as ILN so you would think the watch would be in the same areas instead of looking lopsided. Besides that if IND is expecting some 6+ areas how is ILN not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 my guess is they see it as just under the criteria , and if needed, will upgrade at that point. (office in our area does that alot) edit, also maybe not coordinating with surrounding offices like they do here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I know the criteria difference but my point is IND i'm assuming is basically the same criteria wise as ILN so you would think the watch would be in the same areas instead of looking lopsided. Besides that if IND is expecting some 6+ areas how is ILN not? I think (and know I will be corrected if I am wrong) IND is 6"=12h or 8"=24h. But I don't know criteria for blowing and drifting, which is mentions in the watch, along with the specific mention of rush hour. I don't know if they are expanding the impact based products that PAH is experimenting with or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z NAM looks a bit wetter to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z NAM looks a bit wetter to me so far. Yep, a little bit anyways. I'm on my cell so I can't compare to the 0z, is it more north, south or the same? It looks like maybe it'd be a tad north, but I can't remember 0z at 36 obviously lol.. Edit: tried to switch between tabs on my cell, looks like the precip shield is further north by about 40 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yep, a little bit anyways. I'm on my cell so I can't compare to the 0z, is it more north, south or the same? It looks like maybe it'd be a tad north, but I can't remember 0z at 36 obviously lol Looks better for IND than 00z from what I can tell. NCEP messing up right now. A tiny bit north compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm out to 54. Much better hit for Central OH this run.. Moderate precip holds on longer. This is actually a better run for everyone, especially us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Actually a good deal better for me than 00z. I probably only had .10 at the most and now Im solidy in the .25-.50. Specks of .50+ just south of I-70 in Indiana. A step in the right direction IMO. Hopefully the GFS will hold and 12z runs come north just a tiny bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Precip is just a bit north but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Actually a good deal better for me than 00z. I probably only had .10 at the most and now Im solidy in the .25-.50. Specks of .50+ just south of I-70 in Indiana. A step in the right direction IMO. Hopefully the GFS will hold and 12z runs come north just a tiny bit more. 00 NAM was just depressing for us. Hopefully it stays an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 6z NAM QPF for this storm. Wetter for me by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 349 AM EST WED JAN 19 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE STILL ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MAINLY BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE OTHER MODELS. NAM IS EVEN INCONSISTENT BETWEEN ITS RUNS IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW. ALTHOUGH WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE NAM DOES BETTER...ITS INCONSISTENCIES ARE TROUBLING. WILL NOT USE THE NAM AND GO CLOSER TO A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. MUCH OF THIS EVENING SHOULD BE DRY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DOESN/T BEGIN TO KICK IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY HAVE SMALL CHANCES IN BEFORE 06Z AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL THUS GO WITH CHANCE POPS. WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASING WENT AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. QVECTOR PROGS SHOW THAT OVERALL FORCING...WHILE CONSISTENT...DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS WOULD ASSIST IN BOOSTING SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...FEEL THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS OVERKILL FOR AT THE NORTHERN THIRD. WILL KILL THE WATCH THERE AND GO WITH AN ADVISORY. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SREF IS STILL SHOWING HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INDY METRO AND SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA. WILL STILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY. WILL LOWER A BIT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ALL MODELS SHOW FORCING DIMINISHING THERE. MAV LOOKS OK WITH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOW. FORCING SHUTS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE WENT WITH CHANCE POPS. THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED POPS MOST AREAS THEN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIR. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND HOW THE MODELS KEEP CHANGING...DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 much much better for me, 00z = nothing, 06, .20-.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 ILN has hoisted a WWA for their northern counties...3"-5" for the advisory area...kinda different than the map they had drawn earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.