A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 4:02 PM, Stevo6899 said: If you look at todays snow depth map, it looks like this storm is going to track just south of the snow cover in the plains and midwest. Coincidence? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm a little confused as to why ILN has gone warning, but LMK is sitting on their hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It seems the forecasters around here are not sure what to do, the nam would wreck and bust the STL metro hard core. while all of the models except the nam have a 4-6 inch snowfall the nam has 1-3 inches. with the 1st wave well north, while the rest have is much further south threw the metro. I hope the nam is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If the RUC is right, STL will completely bust...it takes wave 1 way north threw Central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:53 PM, ArmyGreens said: Looking at radar, noticed an area of snow coming across northern IL. Is that as heavy as it looks? Ya it was associated with a subtle mid level s/w, seen on the area profilers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 snowing hard here...i bet we get more than most of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hey, I'll take a little last minute north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 KTIF 191650Z AUTO 08004KT 1/4SM +SN OVC003 M11/M13 A3000 RMK AO2 P0003 T11151135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:10 PM, wxdudemike said: Hey, I'll take a little last minute north trend Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:10 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Well I feel a little more confident after the 12z runs. Ready to bump my LAF call to 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:23 PM, Chicago WX said: Well I feel a little more confident after the 12z runs. Ready to bump my LAF call to 1-2". You better be careful there.. I'm going with 1" max IMBY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:23 PM, Chicago WX said: Well I feel a little more confident after the 12z runs. Ready to bump my LAF call to 1-2". lol, I am ready to bump my call down..if the wave is north of me I might bust completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:31 PM, Mottster said: You better be careful there.. I'm going with 1" max IMBY.. T it is then. On 1/19/2011 at 5:35 PM, Frivolousz21 said: lol, I am ready to bump my call down..if the wave is north of me I might bust completely I won't worry too much Friv, you'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 5:42 PM, Chicago WX said: T it is then. I won't worry too much Friv, you'll be fine. lol, I await good news from the King. but in all seriousness. http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=twx&product=N0R&loop=yes you can see the bands and lift starting to come together and taking a path similiar to the gfs, gem, rgem, and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro has a nice big area of high RH at H7 at 24hrs Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro is out to 72....hard to say but it looks like it will be decent for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:09 PM, Frivolousz21 said: Euro is out to 72....hard to say but it looks like it will be decent for some of us. .18 for Kokomo which isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:11 PM, KokomoWX said: .18 for Kokomo which isn't bad. Good, I believe that means STL will be much lower then last night's .47 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 .26" for Cmh on the euro so right in line with the rest of the 12z suite. I'm still thinking 4-5 up here with 18:1 average ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:16 PM, wxdudemike said: .26" for Cmh on the euro so right in line with the rest of the 12z suite. I'm still thinking 4-5 up here with 18:1 average ratio. My call remains unchanged...3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Didn't see if it was posted but the 12z RGEM refuses to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 FWIW...and moving a tad north of east at this time. most likely wont get this far north but nothing else to watch really and a bit wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:18 PM, JayPSU said: My call remains unchanged...3" Haha so pleasant surprise if we get 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Final call for LAF is 2-4". I think the lower end is more likely than the higher end but I gotta leave the door open for an RGEM type solution. Plus, and this really isn't scientific, but we really haven't underperformed on a snow event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did anyone get the wide area euro QPF? I am mostly curious about Jolplin, MO, STL, and INDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:31 PM, Hoosier said: Final call for LAF is 2-4". I think the lower end is more likely than the higher end but I gotta leave the door open for an RGEM type solution. Plus, and this really isn't scientific, but we really haven't underperformed on a snow event this winter. you guys will also have great ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This looks stronger than modeled already just looking at the radar imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 6:37 PM, Frivolousz21 said: you guys will also have great ratios. That's the thing I'm a little unsure about. I don't really want to bank on anything more than 15:1 for an event average. If they end up being higher, then the upper end snow total would be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think my final call wont be too horrible. based off a blend of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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