Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Granted it's old, but here's the 3z SREF snow probabilities at 36 hours. A little eye candy for Friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Prelim. call is ~1" for Toronto. Even if the southern stream completely whiffs, little clipper piece should deliver the coating. 12z NAM is south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Heh, I thought the 12z NAM would be an improvement here when looking at 18 hours. And then 24 and 30 came out. Blah. Looks better for Indy though, versus the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:08 PM, Chicago WX said: Heh, I thought the 12z NAM would be an improvement here when looking at 18 hours. And then 24 and 30 came out. Blah. Looks better for Indy though, versus the 0z run. yea, nam's gonna make me look bad dammit. Not so much that it's south, just shrinking the precip shield...probably moving faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:19 PM, buckeye said: yea, nam's gonna make me look bad dammit. Not so much that it's south, just shrinking the precip shield...probably moving faster. actually also looking more like an i-71 special (sw to ne) in ohio vs. and i-70 special. Really brings precip up into northeast ohio nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well at least the 12z NAM isn't a shut out here like the 0z run was. It does look weaker with the "southeastern" low at 42 hours, compared to the 0z run at 54. Interestingly, it has made the northern low a little stronger at 42, again compared to 54 on the 0z run. Eh, just a cluster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:21 PM, Chicago WX said: Well at least the 12z NAM isn't a shut out here like the 0z run was. It does look weaker with the "southeastern" low at 42 hours, compared to the 0z run at 54. Interestingly, it has made the northern low a little stronger at 42, again compared to 54 on the 0z run. Eh, just a cluster... yea, actually not huge change either way for most. Just a bit drier around the edges maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:08 PM, Chicago WX said: Heh, I thought the 12z NAM would be an improvement here when looking at 18 hours. And then 24 and 30 came out. Blah. Looks better for Indy though, versus the 0z run. Here's to hoping that our ratios should be at least decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:23 PM, Mottster said: Here's to hoping that our ratios should be at least decent.. Hopefully it can fluff up to 1.5". Anyways, decent bump north in IL and IN, and even NW OH. 12z NAM 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:28 PM, Chicago WX said: Hopefully it can fluff up to 1.5". Anyways, decent bump north in IL and IN, and even NW OH. 12z NAM 0z NAM i might have been too generous too far south in ohio. looks like central could be the winner. Oh well, i've already certified my forecast so i go down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 clipper moving in fast on it's tail at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:21 PM, Chicago WX said: Well at least the 12z NAM isn't a shut out here like the 0z run was. It does look weaker with the "southeastern" low at 42 hours, compared to the 0z run at 54. Interestingly, it has made the northern low a little stronger at 42, again compared to 54 on the 0z run. Eh, just a cluster... That is what i am now hoping for. If i cant get anything from the system there is always the lake and a stronger northern low would help that cause a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:34 PM, buckeye said: clipper moving in fast on it's tail at 60 meh, falls apart... ...but something else coming out of the rockies...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Buckeye, did you see our freezing rain advisory this morning? Wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:46 PM, wxdudemike said: Buckeye, did you see our freezing rain advisory this morning? Wasn't expecting that. i actually almost broke my azz on the driveway before i even knew there was an advisory. So i wasn't expecting it either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 2:47 PM, buckeye said: i actually almost broke my azz on the driveway before i even knew there was an advisory. So i wasn't expecting it either So that new snow I see accumulated on the grass is actually ice? Nice map from ILN. Makes perfect sense. Same totals but different advisory levels. Gosh i wish they would change that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 gotta love the DC crowd...specifically Ji. They have a 1 in 200 year snowfall winter last year and suddenly DC is the snow capital of the world and this winter just happens to be an anomaly for them. Forget about their 18" annual snowfall avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 1:32 PM, buckeye said: if it wasn't for all that junk in the great lakes, we'd probably have one hell of a ridge popping in the east and a hell of a lot bigger event, (I'd probably be sweating wtod too). Kinda what Harry alluded to yesterday Where is that junk coming from? Left over energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe he is referring to places north of him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:07 PM, buckeye said: gotta love the DC crowd...specifically Ji. They have a 1 in 200 year snowfall winter last year and suddenly DC is the snow capital of the world and this winter just happens to be an anomaly for them. Forget about their 18" annual snowfall avg. I think the Gulf works just as well west of the Apps, but I shouldn't expect more from an imbecile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:07 PM, buckeye said: gotta love the DC crowd...specifically Ji. They have a 1 in 200 year snowfall winter last year and suddenly DC is the snow capital of the world and this winter just happens to be an anomaly for them. Forget about their 18" annual snowfall avg. haha that is some funny ***** they are going to be suffering a long loooooooooooooooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:07 PM, buckeye said: gotta love the DC crowd...specifically Ji. They have a 1 in 200 year snowfall winter last year and suddenly DC is the snow capital of the world and this winter just happens to be an anomaly for them. Forget about their 18" annual snowfall avg. Note the poster, the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it is all models vs the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hour 18 it wants to shoot northward but can't! If it was able to and meets up with the energy coming out of canada it would have been a really good storm up here. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:47 PM, Frivolousz21 said: <img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p36_036l.gif" /> it is all models vs the NAM Friv, do you have a QPF number for STL on the GFS? The NAM can't be trusted right now, with all other guidance against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking at radar, noticed an area of snow coming across northern IL. Is that as heavy as it looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 wow, ILN looks like they're missing the boat not putting the northern tier counties in an advisory. Just notice delaware is not included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 If you look at todays snow depth map, it looks like this storm is going to track just south of the snow cover in the plains and midwest. Coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 On 1/19/2011 at 3:57 PM, buckeye said: wow, ILN looks like they're missing the boat not putting the northern tier counties in an advisory. Just notice delaware is not included. Yeah, that is what I noticed this morning. But my call was for a generous 3.5 here(enough for the sleds;)). So I am not dissapointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JB says a line from Kansas to Upstate NY, just north of that line where the arctic boundary forms, snow ratios of 20 to 30:1 will occur. .25 will bring 6"+ and most place the storm won't last much more than 6 hours. Just some notes from his 11am post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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