Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 fresh start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Congrats STL. I'll enjoy my flurries and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yeah good luck Friv and to the soutehrn ohio valley, CMH and LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yeah good luck Friv and to the soutehrn ohio valley, CMH and LAF Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 PIT .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ANOTHER BRIEF DRY BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING SNOWS INTO THE AREA THU AFTN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW THU NIGHT...AND LAKE/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 20 FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 15z SREFS into two camps (although there are exceptions). RSM and ETA members still more aggressive with the phase, NMM and ARW members more blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For those in SW or central Ohio here is my map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 15z SREFS into two camps (although there are exceptions). RSM and ETA members still more aggressive with the phase, NMM and ARW members more blah. 15z SREF still a good hit for central ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM will end up being maybe a tad south, not much though it dont appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM will end up being maybe a tad south, not much though it dont appear. ncep working for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ncep working for you? Yep sure is. Out to hr 36. It's for sure going to be a little south of the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ncep working for you? not me/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ncep working for you? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/model_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep sure is. Out to hr 36. It's for sure going to be a little south of the 12z. im able to get it on accuwx but ncep wont let me refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 IWX is discounting the GFS and going with a NAM/SREF combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IWX is discounting the GFS and going with a NAM/SREF combo. what about the EURO? Also what does NCEP say about todays model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IWX is discounting the GFS and going with a NAM/SREF combo. then they definitely aint buying the euro either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 what about the EURO? Also what does NCEP say about todays model runs? Strangely there's no mention of the Euro. PREFERENCE THIS PD LIES W/A NAM/SREF BLEND W/ADDNL SPRT SEEN IN GFS ENSEMBLES AND GEM REG. OP GFS BY AND LARGE SCRAPPED W/ITS POOR INITIALIZATION OF ARCTIC RIDGING ACRS THE DAKOTAS WHICH LENDS GREATER PROBS OUT IN TIME W/SWD SUPPRESSION/GREATER STREAM SEPARATION/AND WKR INVERTED TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W SW ENERGY ENTERING THE NWPAC THIS AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IWX is discounting the GFS and going with a NAM/SREF combo. Hopefully the 18z NAM is wrong then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Strangely there's no mention of the Euro. PREFERENCE THIS PD LIES W/A NAM/SREF BLEND W/ADDNL SPRT SEEN IN GFS ENSEMBLES AND GEM REG. OP GFS BY AND LARGE SCRAPPED W/ITS POOR INITIALIZATION OF ARCTIC RIDGING ACRS THE DAKOTAS WHICH LENDS GREATER PROBS OUT IN TIME W/SWD SUPPRESSION/GREATER STREAM SEPARATION/AND WKR INVERTED TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W SW ENERGY ENTERING THE NWPAC THIS AFTN. so they are basically siteing initialization errors as why. Yesterdays 12z euro had major initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 out to 57 on accuwx. looks like i-70 to river gets it best. Doesn't look like nam is backing down too much on strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hopefully the 18z NAM is wrong then. Eh, I jumped too soon. NCEP still crashing for anyone? It goes in and out for me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM looks nice to me through 60 for the OV and most if you liked the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hopefully the 18z NAM is wrong then. Yeah it looks like it's gonna cut our qpf. Might still get .25 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Im stuck at 48 on ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Funny, as much as a step back as the 18z NAM looks like at the surface, I'm actually liking H5 more than I did at 12z. Looks like the northern stream is digging more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah it looks like it's gonna cut our qpf. Might still get .25 though. We're holding on for dear life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Im stuck at 48 on ncep I was able to change the hours manually up to 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 out to 63 accuwx. Looks about the same as 12z. southeast half of ohio gets heaviest into w.pa, w.va. Less for nw half of ohio. 1004 low just south of pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Funny, as much as a step back as the 18z NAM looks like at the surface, I'm actually liking H5 more than I did at 12z. Looks like the northern stream is digging more. i noticed that too but thought it was because i was viewing it on a different site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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