SACRUS Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why Is lady forecaster on ch4 saying clipper system bringing 1-3 on fri..very frustrating watching tv weather allot of the time anymore..also they misinform public over and over..ch 7 is the Only half descent one with weather. Even the gfs and ECM would imply 2 - 4 or more for the area. It'll be interesting if the nam remains consistent and if any other guidance trends towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We actually received an emergency managers weather briefing this afternoon from Mt.Holly via email, right now they are calling for a moderate event with the potential of 4-8" of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ensemble mean is more robust than the previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wrt to the CRAS I always wondered what a ULL dropping down below 500dm phasing with a s/w would look like. It gets the ULL down to 486dm over upstate NY! Also there is a strip of .75-1.00 right where the -20 degree isotherm is...ratios would be ridiculous under that band! moot point though since it isn't happening but surely fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Several people have been calling this a clipper...why I don't know Obviously another occasion where until day before public will be misinformed (especially if it turns out to be like the Nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why Is lady forecaster on ch4 saying clipper system bringing 1-3 on fri..very frustrating watching tv weather allot of the time anymore..also they misinform public over and over..ch 7 is the Only half descent one with weather. Ch 7 is more than half decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We actually received an emergency managers weather briefing this afternoon from Mt.Holly via email, right now they are calling for a moderate event with the potential of 4-8" of accumulation. 3-6/4-8 seems likely for the Mt Holly and Upton CWAs with more up towards new england..I can never understand for the life of me saying 1-3/2-4 without mentioning the possibility of something more significant. I think its just as likely we see 10 as it is we only see 1(and no more)...just some food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ch 7 is more than half decent Well compared to some of the Inside info and explanations I get on here and other site I say that but for TV they are the best.. Ch 4 is absurd and Ch 2 not much better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well compared to some of the Inside info and explanations I get on here and other site I say that but for TV they are the best.. Ch 4 is absurd and Ch 2 not much better.. Ch 5 is pretty good when Nick Gregory is on. Horrible otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wrt to the CRAS I always wondered what a ULL dropping down below 500dm phasing with a s/w would look like. It gets the ULL down to 486dm over upstate NY! Also there is a strip of .75-1.00 right where the -20 degree isotherm is...ratios would be ridiculous under that band! moot point though since it isn't happening but surely fun to look at. The pressure on the CRAS drops from 1000-940 mb in 24 hours. Reminds me of Hurricane Felix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The pressure on the CRAS drops from 1000-940 mb in 24 hours. Reminds me of Hurricane Felix. ya pretty incredible stuff...there'd be some unreal winds with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why Is lady forecaster on ch4 saying clipper system bringing 1-3 on fri..very frustrating watching tv weather allot of the time anymore..also they misinform public over and over..ch 7 is the Only half descent one with weather. It really doesn't pay to do specific snow amounts especially when the storm is beyond the 60 hr forecast range. It's better to just say today at this point that there is the potential for an accumulating snow and the amounts will depend on the final track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why Is lady forecaster on ch4 saying clipper system bringing 1-3 on fri..very frustrating watching tv weather allot of the time anymore..also they misinform public over and over..ch 7 is the Only half descent one with weather. That's not an unreasonable forecast given the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even the gfs and ECM would imply 2 - 4 or more for the area. It'll be interesting if the nam remains consistent and if any other guidance trends towards it. EC has 0.24" for NYC. 2-3" versus 2-4" versus 1-3"... is there really much difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Even the gfs and ECM would imply 2 - 4 or more for the area. It'll be interesting if the nam remains consistent and if any other guidance trends towards it. And regarding NAM consistency... its consistently slid south and weaker for the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EC has 0.24" for NYC. 2-3" versus 2-4" versus 1-3"... is there really much difference? 2-4" is good middle ground right now-- theyre just being inaccurate calling this system a "clipper." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It really doesn't pay to do specific snow amounts especially when the storm is beyond the 60 hr forecast range. It's better to just say today at this point that there is the potential for an accumulating snow and the amounts will depend on the final track of the low. Excellent point. The forecasters would have a lot more credence if they were accurate about the possibility of a storm rather than a guess at accumulation two and a half days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Obviously another occasion where until day before public will be misinformed (especially if it turns out to be like the Nam) Dude, this is why you were 5-posted before. All you have done since I took you off is criticize HPC, NWS, and television meteorologists. Knock it off or I'll put you back on restriction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's not an unreasonable forecast given the EC. Is it a Clipper..As far as I know it was a Coastal Storm with a chance of Phasing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EC has 0.24" for NYC. 2-3" versus 2-4" versus 1-3"... is there really much difference? ray you're not wrong but 1-3 is not a reasonable forecast given a blend of all the models, I think thats the point. Bluewave is right though no amounts should be given at this point and it is probably more prudent to say expect a storm and at least some accumulating snow, but the possibility is it could be significant (a la what craig allen said on 880) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 2-4" is good middle ground right now-- theyre just being inaccurate calling this system a "clipper." Its TV... people know the word "clipper". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Dude, this is why you were 5-posted before. All you have done since I took you off is criticize HPC, NWS, and television meteorologists. Knock it off or I'll put you back on restriction. I was pointing it out..Wasn't trying to stir the pot..Reason I posted because she said a Clipper not cause of the totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was pointing it out..Wasn't trying to stir the pot..Reason I posted because she said a Clipper not cause of the totals.. Well, a good middle ground is to say that some tv meteorologists really know their stuff and other tv meteorologists only play the role on tv (and not very well either) It's the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ray you're not wrong but 1-3 is not a reasonable forecast given a blend of all the models, I think thats the point. Bluewave is right though no amounts should be given at this point and it is probably more prudent to say expect a storm and at least some accumulating snow, but the possibility is it could be significant (a la what craig allen said on 880) It IS a reasonable forecast if you are trying to rely on the statistically best model, which is the EC. I agree that no amounts should be thrown around as far as the public is concerned right now... and if I made a call right now thanks to a gun pointed to my head, I would go higher (probably 3-6). Going any higher than that is unreasonable right now given the great deal of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Large difference between ETA and NAM. A lot more digging then NAM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its TV... people know the word "clipper". Yea, I just wish they catered to a higher IQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is it a Clipper..As far as I know it was a Coastal Storm with a chance of Phasing.. Not a clipper...source region is Pac NW thru CO and then ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What would the ratios be for places inland?? Looks like the temps when the snow is falling will be around 17-20. Could support higher then 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnowmobile Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It IS a reasonable forecast if you are trying to rely on the statistically best model, which is the EC. I agree that no amounts should be thrown around as far as the public is concerned right now... and if I made a call right now thanks to a gun pointed to my head, I would go higher (probably 3-6). Going any higher than that is unreasonable right now given the great deal of uncertainty. Since when has the EC been the statistically best model this winter? It has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It IS a reasonable forecast if you are trying to rely on the statistically best model, which is the EC. I agree that no amounts should be thrown around as far as the public is concerned right now... and if I made a call right now thanks to a gun pointed to my head, I would go higher (probably 3-6). Going any higher than that is unreasonable right now given the great deal of uncertainty. And the fact is, especially with a snow sensitive public right now, it's much better to "ease" into higher amounts, should you need to. In short, it's much better to start low and work upwards if the need occurs, rather than call for 6"+ (or whatever) and have to back off. I dont get the anguish over forecasted amounts-- it's not like anyone controls how much falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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