ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Total QPF from 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nam Still looks good but need a couple other big dogs to come in line before locking in a 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Total QPF from 18z NAM: sign me up, long lasting snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again. It's a nice surface track. But the mid and upper levels are progressive and displaced too far north as currently modeled to aptly use words like historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like LI and even more so Conn is in the jackpot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again. You must mean eastern long island-- western long island hasnt jackpotted in a big storm since 2003 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like LI and even more so Conn is in the jackpot again. Boston, south east Mass. gets destroyed, kinda like the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like LI and even more so Conn is in the jackpot again. Tough pattern for NEPA, southern tier of NY, and Catskills. My vote for jackpot this run goes to D.E. Maine and New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again. Last storm totally different synoptic set up. But the qpf field looks climatologically correct, especially the way this year has went. However, precip to the west of the cities looks more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You must mean eastern long island-- western long island hasnt jackpotted in a big storm since 2003 lol. What about the event of a week or so ago? I do realize that CT was the biggest JP zone but western LI was the JP zone of this discussion area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Boston, south east Mass. gets destroyed, kinda like the Patriots. Looks somewhat like the last snowstorm doesnt it? I just hope it gets going sooner than that one did and doesnt have as much of a gradient nor be as short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What about the event of a week or so ago? I do realize that CT was the biggest JP zone but western LI was the JP zone of this discussion area. Western Long Island got between 6-10 inches from that, it was Central Long Island that got the 15-20 inch amounts. We basically had a clear,sunny day here while it kept snowing out there all day long one inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again. This storm wouldn't be historic even with blocking, generally Miller As like 12/26 can turn out to be historic. If Don S is correct though, we could enter a +PNA/-NAO zone in February which could potentially set up another blockbuster like 12/26. I am not complaining about these smaller storms though, they are great. And these events aren't microscopic either (1-3), they're fairly disruptive (6"+) and continue to add to our totals and maintain our snow pack. I mean just as soon as the 20-22 threat is over, we have another threat next week and then the pattern will continue to support future storms, not to mention very cold January air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This storm wouldn't be historic even with blocking, generally Miller As like 12/26 can turn out to be historic. If Don S is correct though, we could enter a +PNA/-NAO zone in February which could potentially set up another blockbuster like 12/26. I am not complaining about these smaller storms though, they are great. And these events aren't microscopic either (1-3), they're fairly disruptive (6"+) and continue to add to our totals and maintain our snow pack. I mean just as soon as the 20-22 threat is over, we have another threat next week and then the pattern will continue to support future storms, not to mention very cold January air. Yeah, I mean these storms are a lot better than the 1-3 stuff that changes over to rain (like what we got today.) I just hope a few of them happen in the daytime lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Noaa Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Friday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. http://forecast.weat...98&lon=-73.9488 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah, I mean these storms are a lot better than the 1-3 stuff that changes over to rain (like what we got today.) I just hope a few of them happen in the daytime lol. Well if the timing is correct, the heaviest would occur during the daytime. It'll probably start in the early morning hours of Friday and end Friday evening. It'll probably be another one of those 7-8 hour events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM ensemble is way south and east of the op run. Euro ensemble mean is south of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_KPHL.txt I am not quite sure why they don't match up QPFwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KPHL.txt I am not quite sure why they don't match up QPFwise The 18z maps from that site are 3 hours precip, so 66-69, 72-75, etc don't show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here's the total 36 hr QPF from the storm system on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Updated HPC maps. Now in Green. And accuweather haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At this rate Worcester is gonna have 200 inches of snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Mt Holly updated forcast for Philly area. Now at 80% chance of snow. Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%.Friday: Snow likely before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At this rate Worcester is gonna have 200 inches of snow this winter. Any idea what their record is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KPHL.txt I am not quite sure why they don't match up QPFwise 3 hr breakdown...its missing data...the 18Z soundings are always like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At this rate Worcester is gonna have 200 inches of snow this winter. I dont think Worcester has much more than N NJ/NY/SW CT at this point, do they? Should be in the 40-45" range YTD I would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At this rate Worcester is gonna have 200 inches of snow this winter. goose- how much did they get today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z NAM soundings for NE NJ, NYC, LI...show very impressive snow growth as well as an unstable layer which suggests the potential for heavy snow. Taken verbatim it's another heavy frontogenic band somewhere. The snow growth is very impressive even further northwest in NJ where the QPF is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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