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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again.

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Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again.

It's a nice surface track. But the mid and upper levels are progressive and displaced too far north as currently modeled to aptly use words like historic.

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Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again.

You must mean eastern long island-- western long island hasnt jackpotted in a big storm since 2003 lol.

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Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again.

Last storm totally different synoptic set up. But the qpf field looks climatologically correct, especially the way this year has went. However, precip to the west of the cities looks more widespread.

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What about the event of a week or so ago? I do realize that CT was the biggest JP zone but western LI was the JP zone of this discussion area.

Western Long Island got between 6-10 inches from that, it was Central Long Island that got the 15-20 inch amounts. We basically had a clear,sunny day here while it kept snowing out there all day long one inch per hour.

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Too bad we can't get some blocking going on here...this has an historic look to it if we could. To be honest this looks very similar to the last one we had where the storm intensified along the Jersey shore but too late to give most of us a major hit. Western LI and NE look to be jackpoted once again.

This storm wouldn't be historic even with blocking, generally Miller As like 12/26 can turn out to be historic. If Don S is correct though, we could enter a +PNA/-NAO zone in February which could potentially set up another blockbuster like 12/26.

I am not complaining about these smaller storms though, they are great. And these events aren't microscopic either (1-3), they're fairly disruptive (6"+) and continue to add to our totals and maintain our snow pack. I mean just as soon as the 20-22 threat is over, we have another threat next week and then the pattern will continue to support future storms, not to mention very cold January air.

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This storm wouldn't be historic even with blocking, generally Miller As like 12/26 can turn out to be historic. If Don S is correct though, we could enter a +PNA/-NAO zone in February which could potentially set up another blockbuster like 12/26.

I am not complaining about these smaller storms though, they are great. And these events aren't microscopic either (1-3), they're fairly disruptive (6"+) and continue to add to our totals and maintain our snow pack. I mean just as soon as the 20-22 threat is over, we have another threat next week and then the pattern will continue to support future storms, not to mention very cold January air.

Yeah, I mean these storms are a lot better than the 1-3 stuff that changes over to rain (like what we got today.) I just hope a few of them happen in the daytime lol.

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Yeah, I mean these storms are a lot better than the 1-3 stuff that changes over to rain (like what we got today.) I just hope a few of them happen in the daytime lol.

Well if the timing is correct, the heaviest would occur during the daytime. It'll probably start in the early morning hours of Friday and end Friday evening. It'll probably be another one of those 7-8 hour events.

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18z NAM soundings for NE NJ, NYC, LI...show very impressive snow growth as well as an unstable layer which suggests the potential for heavy snow. Taken verbatim it's another heavy frontogenic band somewhere. The snow growth is very impressive even further northwest in NJ where the QPF is lower.

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