earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yeah. Ewall also shows .50" over NYC. It has a total precip of .75" and subtracting todays and tonights, .25", leaves us with .50" for Friday. Not bad if you ask me. Whatever I can add on to the seasonal total is great..it'll also be cool to get a fresh new snow pack and some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Right now I would say that we'd get an average of 3-6" inches based on all of the model outputs. Hopefully they trend stronger and wetter but who knows. Still wouldn't be bad knowing there is a chance of an even Bigger storm next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not bad if you ask me. Whatever I can add on to the seasonal total is great..it'll also be cool to get a fresh new snow pack and some cold air. Agree 100%. Keep adding with small events and mix in some moderate to heavy events. Best winters have constant snow threats. Not just 1 or 2 big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ETA is really wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 He was on the HPC train last minute on the storm last week saying the coast was changing to sleet and rain, that one didnt work out. He also said the OV surface low would push the coastal farther out to sea. That didn't work well either for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm GEM ensembles at 180...quite a few show a PD II type setup with strong high to north and weak 1002-1005mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm GEM ensembles at 180...quite a few show a PD II type setup with strong high to north and weak 1002-1005mb low. Looks like we could get 1/2" to an 1" of snow tomorrow per NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 like the GFS, the NAM also trended much stronger with that shortwave coming through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 to me this next event looks a lot like December 5, 2002. watch the three day loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2002/us1205j3.php EDIT SORRY GOT THE WRONG YEAR, ITS 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z NAM is more amplified and stronger with the northern stream thus far through 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 1/17/2010 isn't a very good analog - the southern stream system was quite separate from and well out ahead of the northern stream, and the northern stream system hung back in the northern/western Great Lakes, whereas in this case the northern stream is expected to dig sharply into the Midwest. The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 despite the fact the pattern at 500mb nationwide is quite similar, but we are not getting a triple phaser....1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z NAM is more amplified and stronger with the northern stream thus far through 45 hrs Slower with the western wave and probably won't have a quality full phase--I think this one may be a bit toned down than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z NAM is more amplified and stronger with the northern stream thus far through 45 hrs yep.. wavelength has tightened up a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yep.. wavelength has tightened up a bit as well. It is more amplified though--I may be wrong again. I thought the slower western wave would not allow for a full phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 no doubt.. there's a ton of vorticity advection, however, it's spread out fairly uniformly throught the length of the trof, so without any consolidated vorticity maximum in the base of the trof, heights are falling at the same rate on the lee side, which is not allowing for any height contour spread and any consolidated low pressure to form.. at least not at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's where it finally comes to hour 66 where the energy begins consolidating and the height contours begin spreading apart.. so now the low is beginning to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's where it finally comes to hour 66 where the energy begins consolidating and the height contours begin spreading apart.. so now the low is beginning to take shape. You can see the tiny difference the weaker phase results in. Just a small part of the southern wave not fully phasing ahead of the trough results in a much smaller region of extreme height falls/DPVA as well as a weaker jet stream interaction at the base. This solution is more realistic than the 12Z and is already 4 hpa weaker through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice solution at 69 hours...low hits the coastal waters and rapidly deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 as of now, are the models taking an approach of straight west to east, or are they going a more southernly route and up the coast? i know the second would result in more snow for coastal areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You can see the tiny difference the weaker phase results in. Just a small part of the southern wave not fully phasing ahead of the trough results in a much smaller region of extreme height falls/DPVA as well as a weaker jet stream interaction at the base. This solution is more realistic than the 12Z and is already 4 hpa weaker through 66. yea.. exactly.. I mean.. in comparing it with 12Z at hour 69, it looks pretty close, but it's just a hair less amped, a hair less negatively tilted as well.. which probably means a hair weaker and hair more to the east. EDIT: But hey.. what's to complain.. it's still giving a sizable hit anyhow so I'm happy with this solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 66-69hr still shows nice amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 69 hours on the 18z Nam. Slightly south and colder than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM has .50" of qpf for LI and close to NYC in only 3 hours, from hour 69-72. Also has .75" for NYC and LI in a 6 hour period from 66-72. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice solution at 69 hours...low hits the coastal waters and rapidly deepens. I agree with you John.. despite the analysis and the nitpicking in comparing the different runs... this is still a nice little storm. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12 Z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 72 is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 992 on 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This latest Hazardous Weather Outlook sounds promising for my county: HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 325 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT WOULD IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOOK FOR FURTHER DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 storm vista wx map totals still have the entire tri state NYC in 8-12 inch range and the remainder of the area in 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like philly gets 0.75" of QPF all snow unless there's a sneaky warm layer somewhere, probably between hours 66-69 but it's all a moot point right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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