jasonli18t Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Joe Lundberg That seems pretty vague to me. Doesn't mention a single city or the coast. Classic pseudo-edgy call because it really isn't. That's accuweather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is how i remember it as well. One of the classic total snowfall ramp-ups in history. I remember the news playing catchup even after the storm had begun. Sounds just like Feb 83 and Jan 96 by that description lol. Perhaps all our truly great snowstorms start out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Odds are? I don't think both solutions can play out for the same storm, so I would say one is definitely wrong. Well they could BOTH be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i dont remember PDII being forecasted rain or warm. it was pretty cold then, and i recall media mets saying guidance shoving the system OTS (cough - GFS - cough - GFS).... back on topic though....looking at 500mb and 850mb on NAM and GFS, looks like the we would get more precip from overunning then relying on the coastal to throw it back. h5 low never closes off til SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That seems pretty vague to me. Doesn't mention a single city or the coast. Classic pseudo-edgy call because it really isn't. That's accuweather though. He probably wrote it this morning and decided to throw out the ECMWF and 06z GFS..for whatever reason..(hype?) Not really Lundberg's style though especially since he hates snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Joe Lundberg-- didnt he post on Eastern awhile back? I wonder if he made it to over here? Anyway, I remember he used to be one of the most conservative forecasters. yes and yes. he's very conservative... and very good. ...and i remember he always talked about his love of warm wx and softball on the old board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HPC says "throw out the 12z NAM!" or does it? ...CLIPPER SYS EVOLVING TO ERN CONUS TROF D2/3... ...SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/09Z SREF/00Z UKMET NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE NRN TIER... BUT IT IS STILL ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALONG WITH UKMET. IT ALSO INGESTS ALL OF THE SRN STREAM ENERGY SIMILAR TO THE CAN GLBL WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF... WHEREAS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A LESS PHASED APPROACH. GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY PUTTING IT NEARLY AT THE CENTER OF THE SPREAD ALOFT. ULTIMATELY THE SLOWER/AMPLIFIED EVOLUTION IN THE NAM/CAN GLBL/SREF ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC/NEW ENG COAST BY D3 TO DEEPEN AND HUG CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS SCENARIO CANNOT BE EMBRACED AT THIS POINT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SEEN IN THE CAN GLBL IS CONTRADICTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE 12Z ECMWF HELD SERVE AND KEEPS IT OFFSHORE AS WELL. YET RECENT EXPERIENCE TELLS US THAT LOWS CAN DEEPEN AND NUDGE WESTWARD UNEXPECTEDLY... SO THIS ONE WILL BE GIVEN A WIDE BERTH... AND HPC WILL FAVOR THE GFS/SREF/UKMET WHICH REPRESENT A COMPROMISE CLUSTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 good info on that PDII storm. http://dewx.easternuswx.com/Intro.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HPC says "throw out the 12z NAM!" or does it? ...CLIPPER SYS EVOLVING TO ERN CONUS TROF D2/3... ...SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/09Z SREF/00Z UKMET NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE NRN TIER... BUT IT IS STILL ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALONG WITH UKMET. IT ALSO INGESTS ALL OF THE SRN STREAM ENERGY SIMILAR TO THE CAN GLBL WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF... WHEREAS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A LESS PHASED APPROACH. GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY PUTTING IT NEARLY AT THE CENTER OF THE SPREAD ALOFT. ULTIMATELY THE SLOWER/AMPLIFIED EVOLUTION IN THE NAM/CAN GLBL/SREF ALLOWS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC/NEW ENG COAST BY D3 TO DEEPEN AND HUG CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS SCENARIO CANNOT BE EMBRACED AT THIS POINT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SEEN IN THE CAN GLBL IS CONTRADICTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE 12Z ECMWF HELD SERVE AND KEEPS IT OFFSHORE AS WELL. YET RECENT EXPERIENCE TELLS US THAT LOWS CAN DEEPEN AND NUDGE WESTWARD UNEXPECTEDLY... SO THIS ONE WILL BE GIVEN A WIDE BERTH... AND HPC WILL FAVOR THE GFS/SREF/UKMET WHICH REPRESENT A COMPROMISE CLUSTER. As Usual they take conservative/Skeptical Approach until FORCED into changing there mind at the last minute..No Surprise Here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think everybody here would enjoy watching the NAM solution come to fruition. What an impressive cyclogenesis the NAM is indicating..with the surface low deepening to 984mb southeast of Montauk in about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As Usual they take conservative/Skeptical Approach until FORCED into changing there mind at the last minute..No Surprise Here.. When all else fails then you can blame it on bad or missing data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 despite the fact the pattern at 500mb nationwide is quite similar, but we are not getting a triple phaser....1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As Usual they take conservative/Skeptical Approach until FORCED into changing there mind at the last minute..No Surprise Here.. I think they are taking the right approach here. No reason to go and make bold calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 but 1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder. We should have much colder air in place than last year and hope the supply holds. I still wouldnt toss the nam and the risk of mixing issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 so the storm is what, 60 hours away and we have no idea whats going to happen...bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yes and yes. he's very conservative... and very good. ...and i remember he always talked about his love of warm wx and softball on the old board Yep, conservative guys like him, Wes and Craig Allen are usually very good.... they realize that historic storms are historic for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 despite the fact the pattern at 500mb nationwide is quite similar, but we are not getting a triple phaser....1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder. I dont remember 1/17/10 at all-- what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 15z SREF mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We should have much colder air in place than last year and hope the supply holds. I still wouldnt toss the nam and the risk of mixing issues.... There are no 72 hour analogs supportive of a big storm, as a matter of fact many show weak lows that were even too far east for NYC and mainly on SNE snow....1/30/86, 2/15/86, 1/17/03, 12/25/93 (there was a 3-6 inch storm 2 days later for NYC into SNE), and 12/09/88....only 2/15/96 supports a significant event....note that these worked out very well for this current event, at 60-72 hours most of the analogs supported mainly an interior icing event...generally the specific events are useless but seeing the degree of severity of its analogs are useful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 SREF mean still in agreement with the 12z NAM..with the NAM being deeper with the surface low. The positioning and area of cyclogenesis is still rather similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just so we're all on the same page, Snowgoose is talking about the analogs from here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just so we're all on the same page, Snowgoose is talking about the analogs from here: http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php There needs to be a composite there covering the entire country, I think by breaking it down into region you can get erroneous analogs, but from what I've seen you usually will see small scale analogs when you're getting a modest event and more major ones when you're about to see a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 SREF mean still in agreement with the 12z NAM..with the NAM being deeper with the surface low. The positioning and area of cyclogenesis is still rather similar. Despite the H5 and MSLP maps, SREFS have less precip then previous runs. Only .25"-.50" now. Matches well to GFS QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Despite the H5 and MSLP maps, SREFS have less precip then previous runs. Only .25"-.50" now. Matches well to GFS QPF output. That's because it's lost the members that were giving us 3 inches of liquid with a storm cutting into PA. The mean on SV actually has .5" liquid..I guess it's just not coming up on NCEP as a contour. The surface low track and pressure on the mean seems great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 UH OH..Henry back at it agin..time to cancel storm now.. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadn...to-friday-1.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 UH OH..Henry back at it agin..time to cancel storm now.. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadn...to-friday-1.asp He was on the HPC train last minute on the storm last week saying the coast was changing to sleet and rain, that one didnt work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 12z NAM looks lovely, while other guidance offers only moderate interest. I really want to see that strong jet max penetrating further south toward Co and Ks between hours 48 and 60 on the charts, to carve out a deeper southern trof instead of the northern energy simply traversing across the northern US. This could he helped if the western ridge were sharper and held firmer as well. I know a more amplified solution threatens mix and rain ptypes, but I think this could be compensated for by a further south SLP and an earlier deepening phase. As is, the height field and evolution favors a glancing blow for our area... which is nothing to sneeze at... but we always wish for more high impact events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's because it's lost the members that were giving us 3 inches of liquid with a storm cutting into PA. The mean on SV actually has .5" liquid..I guess it's just not coming up on NCEP as a contour. The surface low track and pressure on the mean seems great to me. Yeah. Ewall also shows .50" over NYC. It has a total precip of .75" and subtracting todays and tonights, .25", leaves us with .50" for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Right now I would say that we'd get an average of 3-6" inches based on all of the model outputs. Hopefully they trend stronger and wetter but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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