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Jan 20-22 Threat Potential Part 2


am19psu

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This is how i remember it as well. One of the classic total snowfall ramp-ups in history. I remember the news playing catchup even after the storm had begun.

Sounds just like Feb 83 and Jan 96 by that description lol. Perhaps all our truly great snowstorms start out that way.

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i dont remember PDII being forecasted rain or warm. it was pretty cold then, and i recall media mets saying guidance shoving the system OTS (cough - GFS - cough - GFS)....

back on topic though....looking at 500mb and 850mb on NAM and GFS, looks like the we would get more precip from overunning then relying on the coastal to throw it back. h5 low never closes off til SNE.

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That seems pretty vague to me. Doesn't mention a single city or the coast. Classic pseudo-edgy call because it really isn't. That's accuweather though.

He probably wrote it this morning and decided to throw out the ECMWF and 06z GFS..for whatever reason..(hype?) Not really Lundberg's style though especially since he hates snow.

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HPC says "throw out the 12z NAM!" or does it? :arrowhead:

...CLIPPER SYS EVOLVING TO ERN CONUS TROF D2/3...

...SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/09Z SREF/00Z UKMET

NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE ENERGY DIVING

INTO THE NRN TIER... BUT IT IS STILL ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE

ALONG WITH UKMET. IT ALSO INGESTS ALL OF THE SRN STREAM ENERGY

SIMILAR TO THE CAN GLBL WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF...

WHEREAS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A LESS PHASED APPROACH. GFS HAS

ALSO TRENDED WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY PUTTING IT

NEARLY AT THE CENTER OF THE SPREAD ALOFT. ULTIMATELY THE

SLOWER/AMPLIFIED EVOLUTION IN THE NAM/CAN GLBL/SREF ALLOWS THE

ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC/NEW ENG COAST BY D3 TO DEEPEN

AND HUG CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS SCENARIO CANNOT BE EMBRACED AT THIS

POINT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SEEN IN THE

CAN GLBL IS CONTRADICTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN...

AND THE 12Z ECMWF HELD SERVE AND KEEPS IT OFFSHORE AS WELL. YET

RECENT EXPERIENCE TELLS US THAT LOWS CAN DEEPEN AND NUDGE WESTWARD

UNEXPECTEDLY... SO THIS ONE WILL BE GIVEN A WIDE BERTH... AND HPC

WILL FAVOR THE GFS/SREF/UKMET WHICH REPRESENT A COMPROMISE

CLUSTER.

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HPC says "throw out the 12z NAM!" or does it? :arrowhead:

...CLIPPER SYS EVOLVING TO ERN CONUS TROF D2/3...

...SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/09Z SREF/00Z UKMET

NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE ENERGY DIVING

INTO THE NRN TIER... BUT IT IS STILL ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE

ALONG WITH UKMET. IT ALSO INGESTS ALL OF THE SRN STREAM ENERGY

SIMILAR TO THE CAN GLBL WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF...

WHEREAS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A LESS PHASED APPROACH. GFS HAS

ALSO TRENDED WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY PUTTING IT

NEARLY AT THE CENTER OF THE SPREAD ALOFT. ULTIMATELY THE

SLOWER/AMPLIFIED EVOLUTION IN THE NAM/CAN GLBL/SREF ALLOWS THE

ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC/NEW ENG COAST BY D3 TO DEEPEN

AND HUG CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS SCENARIO CANNOT BE EMBRACED AT THIS

POINT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SEEN IN THE

CAN GLBL IS CONTRADICTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN...

AND THE 12Z ECMWF HELD SERVE AND KEEPS IT OFFSHORE AS WELL. YET

RECENT EXPERIENCE TELLS US THAT LOWS CAN DEEPEN AND NUDGE WESTWARD

UNEXPECTEDLY... SO THIS ONE WILL BE GIVEN A WIDE BERTH... AND HPC

WILL FAVOR THE GFS/SREF/UKMET WHICH REPRESENT A COMPROMISE

CLUSTER.

As Usual they take conservative/Skeptical Approach until FORCED into changing there mind at the last minute..No Surprise Here..

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The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 despite the fact the pattern at 500mb nationwide is quite similar, but we are not getting a triple phaser....1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder.

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The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 but 1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder.

We should have much colder air in place than last year and hope the supply holds. I still wouldnt toss the nam and the risk of mixing issues....

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yes and yes.

he's very conservative... and very good.

...and i remember he always talked about his love of warm wx and softball on the old board

Yep, conservative guys like him, Wes and Craig Allen are usually very good.... they realize that historic storms are historic for a reason.

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The top 2 analogs for 500mb right now in the East at 60 hours are 1/17/10 and 3/12/93....I'd throw out 3/12/93 despite the fact the pattern at 500mb nationwide is quite similar, but we are not getting a triple phaser....1/17/10 is legitimate, this time of course we have cold air in place...that storm would have been much snowier if we were colder.

I dont remember 1/17/10 at all-- what happened?

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We should have much colder air in place than last year and hope the supply holds. I still wouldnt toss the nam and the risk of mixing issues....

There are no 72 hour analogs supportive of a big storm, as a matter of fact many show weak lows that were even too far east for NYC and mainly on SNE snow....1/30/86, 2/15/86, 1/17/03, 12/25/93 (there was a 3-6 inch storm 2 days later for NYC into SNE), and 12/09/88....only 2/15/96 supports a significant event....note that these worked out very well for this current event, at 60-72 hours most of the analogs supported mainly an interior icing event...generally the specific events are useless but seeing the degree of severity of its analogs are useful...

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Just so we're all on the same page, Snowgoose is talking about the analogs from here: http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php

There needs to be a composite there covering the entire country, I think by breaking it down into region you can get erroneous analogs, but from what I've seen you usually will see small scale analogs when you're getting a modest event and more major ones when you're about to see a bigger storm.

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SREF mean still in agreement with the 12z NAM..with the NAM being deeper with the surface low. The positioning and area of cyclogenesis is still rather similar.

Despite the H5 and MSLP maps, SREFS have less precip then previous runs. Only .25"-.50" now. Matches well to GFS QPF output.

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Despite the H5 and MSLP maps, SREFS have less precip then previous runs. Only .25"-.50" now. Matches well to GFS QPF output.

That's because it's lost the members that were giving us 3 inches of liquid with a storm cutting into PA.

The mean on SV actually has .5" liquid..I guess it's just not coming up on NCEP as a contour.

The surface low track and pressure on the mean seems great to me.

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The 12z NAM looks lovely, while other guidance offers only moderate interest.

I really want to see that strong jet max penetrating further south toward Co and Ks between hours 48 and 60 on the charts, to carve out a deeper southern trof instead of the northern energy simply traversing across the northern US. This could he helped if the western ridge were sharper and held firmer as well. I know a more amplified solution threatens mix and rain ptypes, but I think this could be compensated for by a further south SLP and an earlier deepening phase. As is, the height field and evolution favors a glancing blow for our area... which is nothing to sneeze at... but we always wish for more high impact events.

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That's because it's lost the members that were giving us 3 inches of liquid with a storm cutting into PA.

The mean on SV actually has .5" liquid..I guess it's just not coming up on NCEP as a contour.

The surface low track and pressure on the mean seems great to me.

Yeah. Ewall also shows .50" over NYC.

It has a total precip of .75" and subtracting todays and tonights, .25", leaves us with .50" for Friday.

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