SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 One thing to note is the 12Z Stony Brook MM5 at 500mb out in the Midwest at 60 hours looks like the NAM...generally these 2 models DO agree but if the MM5 was notably weaker it would give us a reason to really throw the NAM out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How is the NAO looking on the ECMWF? I checked the maps on E-Wall, it looks significantly positive on the Day 8-10 Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 How is the NAO looking on the ECMWF? I checked the maps on E-Wall, it looks significantly positive on the Day 8-10 Mean. It's probably calc'd to negative, but it's very east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How is the NAO looking on the ECMWF? I checked the maps on E-Wall, it looks significantly positive on the Day 8-10 Mean. It seems it will be anywhere from neutral to slightly positive on most data I have seen...thats a problem since that high could be allowed to move out again...the 168-180 hour event has a potential to be a monster, but if the NAO doesn't go somewhat negative before then I think we may see the same thing unfold as today though there would be a better chance for major front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ot, but big storm incoming at 168 euro..25th of JAN... maybe later this week we can start a thread for that. that should be on topic, considering its the real event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 dtk posted in the thread yesterday that the bias only applies to cutoff lows. Well, I think that is how this whole notion even started (the fact that there used to be a bias with SouthWest cutoffs). Now...any time that anyone sees a slightly slower evolution with any piece of mid-level energy on an EC forecast, they cite this supposed bias. I personally think this is just another straw man to blame anytime someone doesn't like a solution (as in I don't believe this supposed bias is real...outside of the noted issue with cut-offs). I would be happy to believe otherwise if someone compiled solid evidence there of (and by that, I don't mean citing personal observation....which usually involves comparing real-time forecasts, noting one is slower than another, and never looking back at actual verification). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It seems it will be anywhere from neutral to slightly positive on most data I have seen...thats a problem since that high could be allowed to move out again...the 168-180 hour event has a potential to be a monster, but if the NAO doesn't go somewhat negative before then I think we may see the same thing unfold as today though there would be a better chance for major front end snow. Agree... 180 0c line is in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro brewing something at hr. 156 according to Midlo in the MA forum. EC DAY 6 & 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EC DAY 6 & 7: In the MA forum they are saying it is a snow/rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z FIM Precip at 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 In the MA forum they are saying it is a snow/rain mix. Snow to rain.... +4 DCA at 180... and NYC is at 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 In the MA forum they are saying it is a snow/rain mix. With that high appearing to slide off to the E, that is no surprise. A nice E wind will be coming in warming the surface. Move that high to the W and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snow to rain.... +4 DCA at 180... and NYC is at 0 I wonder how much QPF the Euro is showing for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 With that high appearing to slide off to the E, that is no surprise. A nice E wind will be coming in warming the surface. Move that high to the W and we'll be in business. It's so far out that we can iron that out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 One thing to note is the 12Z Stony Brook MM5 at 500mb out in the Midwest at 60 hours looks like the NAM...generally these 2 models DO agree but if the MM5 was notably weaker it would give us a reason to really throw the NAM out Doesn"t MM5 use the NAM? That being said, souldn't the the GGEM be thrown in with NAM solution? Or at least closer to it than say GFS UKMET EC?. GGEM looks like solid .50 - 85 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Euro is very PDII ish on that storm next week....high is about 100 miles more east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Alright NCEP, its time to get the model site out of the pooer already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Euro is very PDII ish on that storm next week....high is about 100 miles more east though the nao was positive for that, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I managed to get in there a few minutes ago, but yes, it is down again. Alright NCEP, its time to get the model site out of the pooer already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Since I never heard of the FIM before ( http://fim.noaa.gov/ ) I am going out on a limb and saying a sub 948 mb low is probably not going to verify. Think is low 990"s on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the nao was positive for that, too The timing was just perfect....many models had a storm cutting inland days before and the NAM or ETA back then on the 12Z run Saturday AM only 24-36 hours before the storm had mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Think is low 990"s on that Hence I deleted the post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Never saw that photo before... where is it from? And when? I did a reverse image search: It's a pic on the Tateyama Kurobe Alpine Route. This is near Mount Tate. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=3tlDuWG-YVc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How did they make the snow so nearly perfectly straight? The dangers of an avalanche have got to be pretty high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The timing was just perfect....many models had a storm cutting inland days before and the NAM or ETA back then on the 12Z run Saturday AM only 24-36 hours before the storm had mostly rain. it would have been rain had it not been for a 1044 mb arctic high over northern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The timing was just perfect....many models had a storm cutting inland days before and the NAM or ETA back then on the 12Z run Saturday AM only 24-36 hours before the storm had mostly rain. goose- i think you are mistaken....days before the PDII storm the storm was progged well south of our area it was only early saturday that the models shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The Euro is very PDII ish on that storm next week....high is about 100 miles more east though SG, would that be our change of pattern storm, where we go into a +AO for the 7-10 days that Don was talking about? Of course detaisl will change, but a further east high might introduce some mixing issues depending upon how much Arctic air we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 goose- i think you are mistaken....days before the PDII storm the storm was progged well south of our area it was only early saturday that the models shifted north This is how i remember it as well. One of the classic total snowfall ramp-ups in history. I remember the news playing catchup even after the storm had begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Joe Lundberg With the storm likely to deepen Thursday night and Friday as it cuts across extreme southeastern New England, the amounts should easily double, with 6-12 inches becoming a more common snow total for eastern Pennsylvania and possibly northern Maryland into much of New England. I wouldn't be shocked if someone wound up with 15 to 20 inches in portions of southern and eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Joe Lundberg Joe Lundberg-- didnt he post on Eastern awhile back? I wonder if he made it to over here? Anyway, I remember he used to be one of the most conservative forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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